Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
856 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021

No major changes have been made to the forecast. Widely scattered
clusters of showers/storms persists into Yuma and extreme
northwest Kit Carson counties. Confidence is low how far east the
rainfall will be able to survive.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Relatively hot temperatures will be present to finish the work week.
A few temperatures today have already neared their record for the
day and many locations were at 100 by noon. Thunderstorms will be
possible in the evening both days and generally favor Eastern
Colorado and north of I-70.

Right now, the 500mb ridge remains centered over the four corners
region. Through friday night, the ridge will slowly lose some of its
influence over the area as a trough digs into it from the north.
There is potential for shortwave to move through the resulting
northwest flow Friday. Near the surface, a frontal boundary and
broad area of low pressure is currently in Southern Nebraska and
will slowly move south into the area through the period. It is then
forecasted to stall through Friday midday before pushing further
south.

For the rest of this afternoon, temperatures will be in the 100's
with temperatures in the upper 100's possible mainly east of highway
83. While dewpoints are dropping, heat index values are already in
the low 100's. Between this and the very warm temperatures, will
keep the heat advisory and let it expire this evening.

Later this evening, storms could form in Eastern Colorado where the
frontal boundary and a dryline are located. There is a little bit of
moisture aloft as suggested by higher RH values inbetween 850-500mb.
But with such dry conditions near the surface, storms will likely
not produce much rainfall. Storms will also have difficulty
surviving away from the boundaries with the drier surface conditions
and CIN above 75 J/KG. Henceforth, just have a slight chance mainly
in Eastern Colorado and north of I-70 with POPs diminishing as the
storms and dryline move more towards the east and into more stable
air. The lows for tonight are expected to be in the 60's with 70's
east of highway 83.

Friday, another relatively hot day with temperatures in the 90's and
100's which would still be above normal for this time of year. With
the frontal boundary moving slowly to the south, locations closer to
central KS could still hit 100 during the day. As mentioned
previously, a shortwave has been forecasted to move through the area
from the northwest. With the shortwave, a broad surface low pressure
system to the southwest, and some moisture aloft, thunderstorms will
be possible again. Currently, the chance for storms looks better
along and west of the CO border, but some model guidance suggests
that storms could move further east. The main limitation for that is
the environment looks to be more stable to the east and there may not
be a boundary for storms to form and survive on further to the east.

Tomorrow night is looking to be cloudy with much of the cloud cover
coming from the storms earlier in the evening. Lows are expected to
be slightly lower with most of the area in the 60's.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Overview: The synoptic pattern over the High Plains will
transition to NW flow aloft this weekend.. as an upper level ridge
amplifies along the Pacific coast. Broadly speaking, expect
cooler temperatures and an increased potential for convection
(along with a potential for episodic severe weather) via
progressive shortwave energy in WNW-NW flow aloft.. the first of
which will progress eastward across central portions of the
Rockies and High Plains Sat aft/eve.. followed by more pronounced
shortwave energy progressing SSE-SE from British Columbia into the
northern Rockies (Sat night) and central Plains (Sunday). With NW
flow aloft entrenched over the High Plains through mid-week..
additional small amplitude waves are apt to progress across the
region Mon-Wed.

Sat-Sun: A frontal passage is expected in assoc/w the more
pronounced shortwave energy on Sunday, however, model guidance
(e.g. GFS/ECMWF) is in considerable disagreement with regard to
the timing of this feature. It appears that FROPA timing on Sunday
may be dependent upon the magnitude/extent of outflow emanating
from upstream convection in Montana/Wyoming -- which would act to
accelerate the boundary southward along the lee of the Rockies.
With the above in mind.. significant uncertainty persists with
regard to sensible weather conditions /specifics/ in this period.

Mon-Wed: Episodic convection.. assoc/w small amplitude waves in
NW flow aloft.. are possible throughout this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021

High pressure continues across the High Plains creating mainly VFR
conditions. A weak frontal boundary is currently draped across
northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska and is initiating
widely scattered convection. Hazards for the KGLD and KMCK
terminals with the convection would be cloud to ground lightning
and isolated downburst winds; convection is expected to come to an
end around sunset as daytime heating comes to an end. Another
front is located north of the boundary across northeast Colorado
and southwest Nebraska. This front is expected to slowly meander
to the south throughout the night and impact KMCK and potentially
KGLD. LLWS is in the forecast as the front moves through KMCK, did
not introduce it for KGLD as confidence is low if the front will
make it that far south.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN/TT
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...JN/TT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
725 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-190130-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
725 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 /825 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Another hot day is in store on Friday with afternoon high
temperatures ranging from the low 90s into the triple digits.

A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists for portions of the
Tri-State area Friday and Saturday with damaging winds and large
hail the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
902 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021

COZ090-KSZ001-NEZ079-180345-
Yuma County CO-Cheyenne KS-Dundy NE-
902 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA UNTIL 945 PM
MDT/1045 PM CDT/...

At 902 PM MDT/1002 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles west of Haigler to
14 miles northeast of Cope. Movement was southeast at 5 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Yuma, Wray, Eckley, Haigler, Abarr, Beecher Island and Wauneta.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 216 and 259.

LAT...LON 3984 10160 3960 10268 3973 10280 4015 10280
      4030 10223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 298DEG 6KT 4003 10203 3984 10269

JN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>