Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
537 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021

Overview: Modest southwest flow aloft (today) will back to the
SSW-S on Monday.. as an upper level low (presently situated invof
Las Vegas, NV) progresses eastward to the 4-Corners/Desert
Southwest.

Today-Tonight: Challenging convective forecast. In a muttled
synoptic regime.. characterized by weak low/mid-tropospheric
(SFC-H5) flow.. the evolution of the low-level (SFC-H85) pattern
and majority of forcing (i.e. not directly assoc/w convection)
will, once again, largely be dictated by mesoscale features.

Per 20Z visible satellite imagery and regional surface
observations.. a weak, ill-defined surface low was present over
portions of eastern CO and northwest KS. This feature appears to
be centered invof Lamar, CO.. extending northeast toward
Burlington and Goodland. Considerable low overcast (areas of fog,
even) persist on the northwest periphery of this feature.. along
the Colorado Front Range and portions of the Palmer Divide.
Additionally, a WNW-ESE oriented convergence zone (extending from
St. Francis-->Hill City-->Russell-->Salina) was evident in
visible satellite imagery (as a narrow corridor of agitated Cu),
along which isolated convection has recently developed near
Russell/Salina. Mesoanalysis data indicates moderate instability
(1500-2500 J/kg mlcape) is present over the majority of the area,
strongest invof Tribune-Syracuse-Johnson, though deep-layer shear
remains on the marginal end of the spectrum (20-30 kt). Simulated
reflectivity forecasts via the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that
convection currently developing along the Raton Mesa and portions
of the Colorado Front Range (south of Denver) will gradually
increase in coverage/intensity late this afternoon.. eventually
merging into a cluster that progresses slowly E-ENE across the
CO/KS border this evening.. perhaps stalling over northwest KS
tonight. Organization will largely be multicellular in nature..
with marginally severe hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph the
primary hazards.. transitioning to locally heavy rain and flash
flooding as activity coalesces and grows upscale into a cluster
(or clusters) after sunset. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
for Wallace, Greeley, Wichita, Logan and Gove counties, where
1-6" of rain fell late yesterday evening/night.. and additional
heavy rain may rapidly lead to flash flooding.

Mon-Mon night: Flow aloft will gradually back to the SSW-S in
this period, as the deamplifying upper low progresses eastward
into the 4-Corners/Desert Southwest. Aside (perhaps) from an
increasing potential for small amplitude waves aloft.. forcing
will largely be driven by convective/mesoscale features.. i.e.
every bit as challenging as the past few days with regard to
temperatures, cloud cover, convective development/coverage/
evolution/hazards. Bottom line.. another day of widespread
convection appears likely.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021

Chances for afternoon/overnight storms remain for the entire
week. High temperatures are still forecasted to be near average
through Wednesday before going slightly above average to finish
the work week.

The pattern through the work week is still looking to be the same
to previous forecasts. Tuesday and Wednesday an upper cut-off low
approaches the area before diffusing into the larger flow late
Wednesday. From that point forward, a upper ridge sets up over the
Eastern CONUS with a upper trough over the Western CONUS that
puts the Tri-State area in southwest flow aloft. Near the surface,
lower MSLP remains over the Rocky Mountain Region with higher
surface pressure off to the east. Initially, the lower pressure is
to the south of the area until Wednesday when it flips to north
of the area. The weekend then may bring a low off the Front Range.

What this means is two different sets of expected conditions.
Tuesday and Wednesday are forecasted to be relatively cooler and
cloudier with high temperatures near 70 and chances for rain through
most of the day. Wednesday may be drier and warmer as the overall
weather pattern shifts during the day.

Thursday through Saturday is expected to be warmer and confine the
chances for rain and storms more into the afternoon and evening
hours. Highs during the time period are expected to be near 80.
Cloud cover will likely not be as persistent with sun during the
daytime hours. As for rain chances, guidance is still persistent on
keeping moisture available to the area though how much is uncertain
given the change in pattern. Synoptic lift will be questionable each
day as upper shortwaves may pass through the area and surface low
pressure centers are far enough from the area to have little effect.
However, there could be boundaries such as lingering outflows from
previous convection or maybe even a dryline. Also, with less clouds
and more heating during the daytime hours, enough CAPE may develop
to fire off storms. So all of this contributes to a greater chance
during the afternoon and evening hours with the potential for severe
weather each day depending on how much instability develops in the
area. It is too uncertain to determine each day right now, but will
continue to monitor during upcoming forecasts. So expect dry days
with storm chances increasing during the afternoon hours and the
potential for some to be severe during the end of the week. Some
showers may linger through the night and into the morning hours the
next day but chances are uncertain right now.

Sunday may bring a cold front to the area though guidance has been
moving this front around. Guidance also has not agreed on how/when
the upper trough will move from its position in the Western CONUS.
Ensembles also are fairly uncertain, but more members have it moving
east during the day Sunday. Currently am keeping Sunday warm but
will need to monitor timing/location changes of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 533 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 00Z TAF period
with potential for thunderstorms this evening into the early
morning hours over the MCK and GLD terminals. Thunderstorms are
expected to move into NW Kansas from western Colorado and west-
central Kansas. Confidence remains lower for storm activity over
the MCk terminal; however, due to the potential kept VCTS in the
TAFS through 15Z. Light ESE to ENE winds will prevail through the
TAF period. Of course, gusty/erratic winds can be expected in
vicinity of any thunderstorms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KMK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1002 AM MDT Sun May 16 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-171615-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1002 AM MDT Sun May 16 2021 /1102 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms will develop in Colorado late this afternoon, tracking
eastward into western Kansas this evening. Severe thunderstorms
capable of producing quarter size hail and damaging winds are
possible, mainly along and south of Interstate 70 and west of Kansas
Highway 25 between 6 pm and 11 pm MDT.

Thunderstorms will persist over portions of northwest Kansas late
this evening into tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding are possible, particularly in areas that received
significant rainfall during the past 24 hours. A Flash Flood Watch is
in effect for Wallace, Greeley, Wichita, Logan, and Gove counties in
Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon and
evening hours on Monday May 17th. Locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flash flooding are also possible.

Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours
each day for the remainder of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening, and
again on Monday.

Vincent

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
909 PM MDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BURLINGTON              39.30N 102.27W
05/16/2021  M1.44 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   MESONET

            REPORTED VIA WEATHER UNDERGROUND. MESONET
            STATION KCOBURLI20 REPORTED 1.44 INCHES OF
            STORM TOTAL RAIN SINCE 6:30 PM MT. RAIN IS
            ONGOING.

&&

KMK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
911 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021

KSZ041-042-170400-
Wichita KS-Greeley KS-
911 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 911 PM MDT/1011 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles northwest of Leoti
to 11 miles west of Shallow Water. Movement was north at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Leoti, Selkirk, Marienthal and Lydia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3858 10167 3859 10113 3827 10112 3826 10166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 190DEG 10KT 3857 10149 3832 10111

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
917 PM MDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HEAVY RAIN       VONA                    39.31N 102.75W
05/16/2021  M1.11 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   MESONET

            REPORTED VIA WEATHER UNDERGROUND. MESONET
            STATION KCOVONAA4 REPORTED 1.11 INCHES OF
            STORM TOTAL RAIN SINCE 5:45 PM MT. RAIN IS
            ONGOING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
920 PM MDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SHARON SPRINGS          38.90N 101.75W
05/16/2021                   WALLACE            KS   911 CALL CENTER

            WALLACE COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED 1.5-2
            INCHES OF WATER ON THE ROADS IN SHARON
            SPRINGS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

KMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
924 PM MDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SHARON SPRINGS          38.90N 101.75W
05/16/2021  M1.66 INCH       WALLACE            KS   MESONET

            REPORTED VIA WEATHER UNDERGROUND. MESONET
            STATION KKSSHARO18 REPORTED 1.66 INCHES OF
            STORM TOTAL RAIN SINCE 8:10 PM MT. RAIN IS
            ONGOING.

&&

KMK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
952 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021

COZ090-091-KSZ001-013-NEZ079-170445-
Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO-Sherman KS-Cheyenne KS-Dundy NE-
952 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 952 PM MDT/1052 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles south of Cope to 12
miles southwest of St. Francis. Movement was south at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Goodland, Yuma, Wray, St. Francis, Kanorado, Ruleton and Bonny
Reservoir.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 0 and 21.
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 449 and 450.
 Highway 385 between mile markers 191 and 254.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10302 3957 10280 4028 10279 4019 10172
      3931 10165 3936 10308
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 015DEG 7KT 3962 10284 3960 10189

JN