Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
510 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021

Latest upper air analysis shows a long wave trough over the Western
CONUS.  Within the larger feature is a closed low over Montana and a
short wave trough over the lee of the Rockies.  With moisture
advection ahead of the trough, there is a large expanse of cloud
cover over the Plains. A growing field of cumulus clouds is seen
behind the front over the forecast area. At the surface a strong
cold front has moved through most of the forecast area. Behind the
front northerly winds are increasing as the LLJ mixes down.

For the rest of today have low confidence of severe weather
occurring in the forecast area due to the earlier frontal timing.
Storm activity will more than likely be southeast and east of the
forecast area.  The greater threat will be the strong winds and
potential for blowing dust over the southwest quadrant of the
forecast area.  However the cirrus clouds may limit the wind and
dust potential, but the concern is still there.

Latest radar and satellite imagery are showing a growing area of
cumulus clouds near Denver.  Am expecting this area of cloud cover
to continue to grow and spread east into the forecast area late this
afternoon and into the evening as the upper level short wave trough
moves east.  Am not expecting these storms to be severe due to the
700-500mb lapse rates not being as steep and an inversion setting up
in the low levels behind the cold front.

Tonight the area of rainfall should collapse as it moves over the
central part of the forecast area.  This is due to the upper level
short wave trough filling.  The risk for dust may extend into mid
evening, and the winds should continue to be quite strong due to a
shallow mixed layer forming behind the cold front.  This mixed layer
will allow the stronger winds behind the cold front to mix to the
ground.  The stronger winds will move south of the forecast area
during the late evening.  Lows will fall into the 30s for the
western half of the forecast area where dew points will be in the
mid 30s.  With cloud cover in place, am not expecting any frost to
form.

Sunday will be cooler than today due to the cool air mass in place.
The upper level short wave trough bringing chances for rainfall has
slowed down from the prior forecast.  Rainfall chances now look to
begin more in the latter half of the afternoon.

Sunday night rainfall chances spread across the rest of the forecast
area as the upper level short wave trough, and isentropic lift, move
through.  Temperatures may fall low enough for snow to mix in with
the rain for the west half of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 127 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021

The extended forecast begins with an active weather pattern as a mid-
level trough impacts the region.  Rain is expected to be ongoing
across the Tri-State area Monday morning, with snow mixing in for
eastern Colorado and areas along and west of Highway 83.  Little to
no snow accumulation is expected at this time.  Rain will continue
through the day with snow once again mixing in as temperatures
drop Monday night into Tuesday morning. Areas in Eastern Colorado
may receive measurable snow although with warm temperatures the
past several days and warm ground, little to no actual snow
accumulation is expected.

The slow moving trough continues to move through the area on
Wednesday, prompting the possibility of additional showers and maybe
a few isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.  After temperatures
in the 40s and 50s on Monday and Tuesday, highs will rebound back
into the 60s on Wednesday.

Warming and drying conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as a
ridge moves over the area.  Expected highs will be in the 70s on
Thursday and 80s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 509 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021

KGLD, will see mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast period.
6sm in blowing dust with VCTS thru 04z Sunday is possible. Winds,
northerly 25-40kts thru 06z, the around 15-25kts.

KMCK, MVFR/VFR mix for the forecast period. Ceilings as lows as
BKN-OVC020-030. Winds, northerly 20-40kts thru 15z Sunday, then
around 15kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...JN

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
528 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021

COZ090-090015-
Yuma County CO-
528 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM
MDT...

At 528 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Yuma to 5 miles southeast
of Cope. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and significantly reduced
visibility due to blowing dust will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Joes, Abarr, Kirk, Heartstrong and Vernon.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 226 and 234.

LAT...LON 3993 10279 4009 10277 3994 10219 3959 10240
      3958 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 328DEG 28KT 4008 10283 3960 10281

JN