Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
513 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 456 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021

Thunderstorm activity has increased, stretching now into KS/NE.
As a result, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been expanded to
KS/NE thru 11pm MDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021

Rest of the afternoon...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue moving across the area producing hail, damaging winds, and
heavy rainfall as the cold front passes through. The CAMs are in
fair agreement that the storms will begin to enter the area over the
2-4 hours. The clearing out ahead of the storms will help the
environment recover some from the rain showers this morning. Mid-
level lapse rates continue to be favorable at 7-8 C/km. The higher
CAPE values (1000-1500 j/kg) look to be in NW Kansas with 0-6 km
bulk shear 40-50 kts. With inverted-V soundings and low moisture in
the mid to upper levels, the threat is more for damaging winds up to
70 mph and heavy rain. As the thunderstorms produce the strong wind
gusts, there is potential for localized blowing dust. Hail potential
remains; however, there is not much moisture in the hail growth zone.

Tonight...A line of storms are expected to move across NW Kansas as
it continues to produce heavy rain and strong winds. During the
evening to midnight hours, bulk shear is expected to increase over
western Kansas to 50-60 kts indicating this will likely remain a
strong to damaging wind threat for the area. 0.25-1.75" of rain is
expected across the area through Monday morning. The surface trough
is expected to dig deeper south as the upper level trough moves into
the Four Corners region overnight. Behind the cold front, the winds
will shift to the north and remain sustained at 15-30 mph with gusts
up to 40 mph through the overnight hours. Temperatures will fall
into the 40s to lower 50s overnight.

Monday...Rain showers are expected to continue across the area
through Monday night; however, very low accumulations are expected.
As the upper level trough crosses the Rockies and moves into the
High Plains Monday evening/overnight, precipitation chances are
expected to decrease from north/northwest to east. Winds are
expected to continue from the north at 15-30 mph and gusts up to 40
mph throughout the day. The winds are expected to decrease after
sunset to 10-15 mph for the remainder of the night. Temperatures are
expected to range from the upper 40s to lower 60s for afternoon
highs, increasing from southwest to northeast. Monday night lows are
expected to be fairly chilly in the lower 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021

Model differences in the latest GFS/ECMWF for the timing and
strength of the shortwave expected to pass thru the region late
Tuesday on into Wednesday. Trend is for precipitation to taper by
sunset, with clearing thru the first half of Friday as an amplified
upper ridge swings slowly east across the Plains region. Late Friday
into the upcoming weekend, models differences with the GFS/ECMWF as
a surface ridge stalls east of the region with the upper ridge over
the Plains. There is an upper low at 500/700 mb setting up over the
west-central Rockies with a trailing surface low southeast into the
Texas area. Moisture feeding into the CWA on southeast flow will
trigger a potential round of rw/trw. The GFS is a bit more
progressive in shunting the precip east with zonal flow developing
versus the latest ECMWF where QPF is higher and slower to clear.
Splitting the difference and staying close to previous forecast with
chance pops for now.

For temps, highs will be on a mostly upward trend from Tuesday into
the upcoming weekend. On Tuesday 60s lifting to 70s by Thursday,
then Friday and Saturday mid 70s to lower 80s. Slightly cooler air
for Sunday with mid 60s to mid 70s expected. Lows during this time
have 30s for Tuesday and Wednesday night 30s, giving way to 40s for
the remainder of the overnight periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 459 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021

VFR conditions are expected to degrade to near MVFR conditions as
thunderstorms and heavy rain showers move over the terminals.
Ceilings are expected to decrease to BKN/OVC of 008-025 from
03-06Z. Visibility could drop as low as 4 SM. Winds are expected
to shift to the north as a front moves through with wind speeds of
15-25 kts and Gusts up to 30 kts through the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...KMK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
445 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-032245-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
445 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021 /545 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 7pm MDT for Kit
Carson, Cheyenne, and Yuma counties in Colorado. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is also in effect for southwest Nebraska and all
of northwest Kansas through 11pm MDT.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms into this evening as storms
move off the Front Range of Colorado and continue across the Plains
of Nebraska and Kansas. Large hail and damaging wind are the primary
threats along with locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash
flooding this evening. An isolated tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A chance of showers with isolated thunderstorms will persist through
the day on Monday with showers diminishing Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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