Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Junction, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
231 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

A shortwave over Idaho will move across Wyoming overnight. High-
based convection continues across the forecast area this afternoon
with the best coverage along and north of Interstate 70. Expect
convective activity to continue into the early evening hours with
the greatest threat being lightning and strong gusty outflow winds
up to 50 mph with these storms. With these fast-moving high-based
storms brief heavy rain is possibly with the strongest cells.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish this evening as
this system moves east. High Pressure will move across the region
tomorrow with dry conditions and cooler temperatures expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

A closed low over western Washington on Sunday will move east
across the Montana on Monday with an increasing southwest
pressure gradient over the area. Expect breezy and dry conditions
in response to this system with potential fire weather concerns,
especially across the northern sections. Consensus blends
continue to show high pressure building over the Great Basin
region through the workweek keeping the bulk of the moisture south
of the forecast area. This setup will keep a slight chance of
late-day shower and thunderstorm activity over the Four Corners
region and the higher terrain along the Continental Divide for the
remainder of the workweek with the threat of showers and
thunderstorms progressing slowly north by the end of the week.
However, stay tuned to the latest forecast since confidence is low
beyond midweek with the potential monsoon influx of moisture.
Longer range are advertising an increasing moisture surge by next
weekend. Temperatures will be running about 5 to 10 degrees above
normal through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

Strong, gusty winds are expected for all TAF sites this afternoon
and into the evening hours as a disturbance swings through.
Increasing clouds are also expected through the afternoon, along
with some showers and thunderstorms for mountain TAF sites. The
main threat with any storms that do form will be erratic, gusty
outflow winds. Winds and clouds will decrease overnight. Tomorrow
will see clear skies and winds following typical terrain driven
patterns. VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

Strong prefrontal winds in combination with already drying low
levels, critical conditions will be reached for areas with
susceptible fuels. Therefore, Red Flag Warnings for the areas
determined critical in coordination with fuel specialists will
continue. Winds taper off by 8 PM MDT with a wind shift to the
northwest occurring with frontal passage overnight.

Through the weekend, localized fire weather conditions may recur
each afternoon while high pressure remains suppressed to the
south and a series of troughs pass north of the region on Sunday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-203.

UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ490.

&&

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...BGB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
453 AM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-071100-
Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-
Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor-
Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-
Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
453 AM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hot and dry conditions combine with strong southwest winds today
leading to critical fire weather conditions across northwest and
west-central Colorado and east-central Utah. A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for those areas from noon to 8 PM this evening.
In addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
this afternoon, though mainly over the mountains. Relatively fast
moving, high based storms are unlikely to generate heavy rain, so
the flash flood and mud/debris slide potential is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 Precipitation chances remain low this weekend through the middle
of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
333 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

COZ007-008-010-013-062200-
Central Colorado River Basin CO-Flat Tops CO-
Debeque to Silt Corridor CO-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys CO-
333 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Garfield County through 400 PM MDT...

At 331 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
New Castle, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Glenwood Springs, New Castle, Silt and Shoshone.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 97 and 128.
 Colorado 82 near mile marker 1.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 10757 3955 10767 3977 10729 3959 10713
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 240DEG 37KT 3956 10753

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MDA