Red Flag Warning 42, NWS Grand Junction, CO

285 
WWUS85 KGJT 252032
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
232 PM MDT Wed Aug 25 2021

COZ200-260200-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0042.000000T0000Z-210826T0200Z/
Little Snake Forecast Area-
232 PM MDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 200...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 200 Little 
  Snake Forecast Area.

* WINDS...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...9 to 14 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will become favorable for easy ignition 
  and rapid spread of fires due to low relative humidity and 
  strong gusty winds through early this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

254 
WWUS85 KGJT 260200
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
800 PM MDT Wed Aug 25 2021

COZ200-260300-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FW.W.0042.000000T0000Z-210826T0200Z/
Little Snake Forecast Area-
800 PM MDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 200...

Winds will continue to decrease and humidity increase this evening
allowing the Red Flag Warning to end on time. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1103 PM MDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM MDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Cancelled the Red Flag Warnings as winds are dropping off. Still
50/50 for the same scenario on Wednesday which is not enough to
pull the trigger on a new warning so left Fire Weather Watch in
place. It will be dry but it may be a struggle to get the gusty
winds to play along.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Plenty of sunshine across the area this afternoon as drier
southwest flow swept into the region overnight. Dewpoints were
generally in the 20s and lower 30s. Deep mixing and increased flow
aloft has led to moderately breezy southwest flow, especially
across northwest Colorado. Little change forthcoming tonight and
Wednesday as a mid-level trough remains to the west of the
forecast area. Expect highs on Wednesday to be just a bit warmer
than normal. Overnight lows will trend slowly upward with near
normal readings tonight and a bit milder Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Quick burst of monsoonal moisture will be working through Thursday
as an upper level trough over the Northern Rockies fills and
ejects northeastward into Southern Canada. Shortwave energy
rounding the base of the ejecting trough and support from
energetic jet (right entrance region) will provide ample lift to
get fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms going. Convection
is expected during the morning hours with activity persisting into
the overnight hours Thursday night. With precipitable water
values expected to surpass then one inch mark again, would expect
heavy rain to be a big threat once again. Another wave looks to
rotate across on Friday as the deeper moisture shifts south and
east. This will shift focus for any remaining showers/storms to
our southern and eastern zones, with NE UT and NW CO looking at
dry conditions.

Flat ridging becoming established over the weekend with generally
dry weather anticipated. Could see some isolated convection
favoring the southern mountains, so can't say everyone will be dry
with 100 percent confidence. Pattern gets really muddy by late in
this extended as we see another trough push into the PACNW, the
upper level ridge shift back into the plains and then an
undercutting tropical system working across Texas. Monsoon
moisture is also lurking to the southwest and may lift quickly
north across AZ by mid- week. With great uncertainty as to how
this tropical system will impact later periods, will side with the
latest blends and introduce scattered pops to our southern areas
late Monday/Tuesday.

Thursday will be the coolest day of this stretch with readings
running 4 to 8 degrees below seasonal norms, then a slow climb
back to the plus side of normal by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1102 PM MDT Tue Aug 24 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Breezy southwest winds and low relative humidity have resulted in
critical fire weather conditions across portions of northwest
Colorado this afternoon and evening. A Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for the Colorado Fire Weather Zones 200 and 202 given fuels
are still considered critical in this region. Similar conditions
are possible across northwest Colorado Wednesday and therefore, a
Fire Weather Watch remains in effect. Winds still appear to be
marginal so would like to see how the rest of the day plays out
before upgrading to a Red Flag Warning for the Wednesday
afternoon/evening period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for COZ200-202.

UT...None.
&&

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
236 AM MDT Tue Aug 24 2021

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-250845-
Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-
Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor-
Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-
Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
236 AM MDT Tue Aug 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Southwest winds will increase this afternoon and evening, along
with drier air and warmer temperatures, leading to critical fire
weather conditions across northwest Colorado. A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for northwest Colorado valley zones this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Dry and breezy conditions will lead to potential for critical fire
weather conditions once again across northwest Colorado on
Wednesday ahead of an approaching disturbance. More widespread to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening
through Thursday with the passage of this disturbance. Remnant
moisture will trigger daily afternoon storms mainly across the
central and southern Colorado mountains Friday through the
weekend with drier conditions outside of these areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.