Alert archive / Colorado / Red Flag Warnings in 2021
Red Flag Warning 31, NWS Grand Junction, CO
NWS Grand Junction, CO issued this red flag warning at Jun 17, 2021, 2:41 PM MDT for 4 counties in Utah; 9 counties in Colorado. It took effect at Jun 18, 2021, 12:00 PM MDT. It was in force for 9 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 17, 2021, 2:41 PM MDT (20:41 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jun 18, 2021, 12:00 PM MDT
- Expired
- Jun 18, 2021, 9:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Junction, CO
Counties Archuleta County, CO, Delta County, CO, Gunnison County, CO, Hinsdale County, CO, La Plata County, CO, Montrose County, CO, Ouray County, CO, San Juan County, CO, San Miguel County, CO, Daggett County, UT, Grand County, UT, San Juan County, UT, Uintah County, UT
The radar
The Grand Junction radar (KGJX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 1:25 PM MDT | HAIL 0.25 | 5 Nnw Eastland, UT |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Grand Junction, CO (KGJT), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 79 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 4014 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 61 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 78 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
245 WWUS85 KGJT 172041 RFWGJT URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 241 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 COZ291-293-295-181300- /O.UPG.KGJT.FW.A.0026.210618T1800Z-210619T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.W.0031.210618T1800Z-210619T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.A.0027.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Northern San Juan Forecast Area-Gunnison Basin Forecast Area- Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area- 241 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 291, 293, AND 295... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 291, 293, AND 295... The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Red Flag Warning for dry thunderstorms, which is in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday. A Fire Weather Watch has also been issued. This Fire Weather Watch for dry thunderstorms is in effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 291 Northern San Juan Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 293 Gunnison Basin Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 295 Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ UTZ491-181300- /O.UPG.KGJT.FW.A.0026.210618T1800Z-210619T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.W.0031.210618T1800Z-210619T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.A.0027.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Southeast Utah- 241 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 491 ABOVE 7000 FEET... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 491 ABOVE 7000 FEET... The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Red Flag Warning above 7000 feet for dry thunderstorms, which is in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday. A Fire Weather Watch has also been issued. This Fire Weather Watch above 7000 feet for dry thunderstorms is in effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. * AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 491 Southeast Utah above 7000 feet. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ UTZ485-181300- /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.W.0031.210618T1800Z-210619T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.A.0027.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Eastern Ashley National Forest- 241 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 485... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 485... The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Red Flag Warning for dry thunderstorms, which is in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday. A Fire Weather Watch has also been issued. This Fire Weather Watch for dry thunderstorms is in effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. * AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 485 Eastern Ashley National Forest. * IMPACTS...Conditions may be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ COZ203-205-290-292-294-UTZ487-181300- /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.A.0027.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Lower Colorado River-Colorado River Headwaters- Paradox Valley Forecast Area-North Fork Forecast Area- Southwest Colorado Upper West Forecast Area-Book Cliffs- 241 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 203, 205, 290, 292, AND 294 AS WELL AS UTAH FIRE WEATHER ZONE 487... The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Fire Weather Watch for dry thunderstorms, which is in effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 203 Lower Colorado River, Fire Weather Zone 205 Colorado River Headwaters, Fire Weather Zone 290 Paradox Valley Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 292 North Fork Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 294 Southwest Colorado Upper West Forecast Area. In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 487 Book Cliffs. * IMPACTS...Conditions may be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$
4 follow-up statements
943 WWUS85 KGJT 180806 RFWGJT URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 206 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 COZ291-293-295-UTZ485-182130- /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0031.210618T1800Z-210619T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.A.0027.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Northern San Juan Forecast Area-Gunnison Basin Forecast Area- Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area- Eastern Ashley National Forest- 206 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 291, 293, AND 295... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 291, 293, AND 295... * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 291 Northern San Juan Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 293 Gunnison Basin Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 295 Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area. In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 485 Eastern Ashley National Forest. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ UTZ491-182130- /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0031.210618T1800Z-210619T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.A.0027.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Southeast Utah- 206 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 491 ABOVE 7000 FEET... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 491 ABOVE 7000 FEET... * AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 491 Southeast Utah above 7000 feet. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ COZ203-205-290-292-294-UTZ487-182130- /O.CON.KGJT.FW.A.0027.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Lower Colorado River-Colorado River Headwaters- Paradox Valley Forecast Area-North Fork Forecast Area- Southwest Colorado Upper West Forecast Area-Book Cliffs- 206 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 203, 205, 290, 292, AND 294 AS WELL AS UTAH FIRE WEATHER ZONE 487... * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 203 Lower Colorado River, Fire Weather Zone 205 Colorado River Headwaters, Fire Weather Zone 290 Paradox Valley Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 292 North Fork Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 294 Southwest Colorado Upper West Forecast Area. In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 487 Book Cliffs. * IMPACTS...Conditions may be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$
062 WWUS85 KGJT 182034 RFWGJT URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 UTZ485-191300- /O.UPG.KGJT.FW.A.0027.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.W.0033.210620T1800Z-210621T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210619T0300Z/ Eastern Ashley National Forest- 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 485... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 485... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 485... The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels, which is in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday. A Red Flag Warning has also been issued from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday. * AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 485 Eastern Ashley National Forest. * WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...12 to 17 percent. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ291-293-295-191300- /O.UPG.KGJT.FW.A.0027.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210619T0300Z/ Northern San Juan Forecast Area-Gunnison Basin Forecast Area- Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area- 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 291, 293, AND 295... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 291, 293, AND 295... The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels, which is in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday. * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 291 Northern San Juan Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 293 Gunnison Basin Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 295 Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area. * WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ290-292-UTZ487-191300- /O.UPG.KGJT.FW.A.0027.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.W.0033.210620T1800Z-210621T0300Z/ Paradox Valley Forecast Area-North Fork Forecast Area-Book Cliffs- 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 290, 292, AND 487... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 290, 292, AND 487... The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels, which is in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday. A Red Flag Warning has also been issued from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday. * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 290 Paradox Valley Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 292 North Fork Forecast Area. In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 487 Book Cliffs. * WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...8 to 13 percent. * IMPACTS...Conditions may be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and low RH and strong gusts on Sunday. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ UTZ491-191300- /O.UPG.KGJT.FW.A.0027.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210619T0300Z/ Southeast Utah- 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 491 ABOVE 7000 FEET... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 491 ABOVE 7000 FEET... The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Red Flag Warning above 7000 feet for gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels, which is in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday. * AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 491 Southeast Utah above 7000 feet. * WINDS...West 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ203-205-294-191300- /O.UPG.KGJT.FW.A.0027.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Lower Colorado River-Colorado River Headwaters- Southwest Colorado Upper West Forecast Area- 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 203, 205, AND 294... The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels, which is in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday. * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 203 Lower Colorado River, Fire Weather Zone 205 Colorado River Headwaters and Fire Weather Zone 294 Southwest Colorado Upper West Forecast Area. * WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * IMPACTS...Conditions may be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ200-202-207-UTZ486-490-191300- /O.NEW.KGJT.FW.W.0033.210620T1800Z-210621T0300Z/ Little Snake Forecast Area-White River Forecast Area- Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area-Eastern Uinta Basin- Colorado River Basin- 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200, 202, 207, 486, AND 490... The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels, which is in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday. * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 200 Little Snake Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 202 White River Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 207 Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area. In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 486 Eastern Uinta Basin and Fire Weather Zone 490 Colorado River Basin. * WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...8 to 13 percent. * IMPACTS...Conditions may be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to low RH and strong wind gusts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
573 WWUS85 KGJT 182135 RFWGJT URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 335 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 UTZ485-190700- /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210619T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0033.210620T1800Z-210621T0300Z/ Eastern Ashley National Forest- 335 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 485... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 485... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 485... * AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 485 Eastern Ashley National Forest. * WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Sunday afternoon. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...10 to 15 percent Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected today and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ291-293-295-190700- /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210619T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Northern San Juan Forecast Area-Gunnison Basin Forecast Area- Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area- 335 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 291, 293, AND 295... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 291, 293, AND 295... * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 291 Northern San Juan Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 293 Gunnison Basin Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 295 Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area. * WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected today and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ290-292-UTZ487-190700- /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0033.210620T1800Z-210621T0300Z/ Paradox Valley Forecast Area-North Fork Forecast Area-Book Cliffs- 335 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 290, 292, AND 487... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 290, 292, AND 487... * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 290 Paradox Valley Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 292 North Fork Forecast Area. In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 487 Book Cliffs. * WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Sunday afternoon. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...8 to 13 percent Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Conditions may be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and low RH and strong gusts on Sunday. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected today and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ UTZ491-190700- /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210619T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Southeast Utah- 335 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 491 ABOVE 7000 FEET... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 491 ABOVE 7000 FEET... * AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 491 Southeast Utah above 7000 feet. * WINDS...West 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected today and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ203-205-294-190700- /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Lower Colorado River-Colorado River Headwaters- Southwest Colorado Upper West Forecast Area- 335 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 203, 205, AND 294... * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 203 Lower Colorado River, Fire Weather Zone 205 Colorado River Headwaters and Fire Weather Zone 294 Southwest Colorado Upper West Forecast Area. * WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Conditions may be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected today and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ200-202-207-UTZ486-490-190700- /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0033.210620T1800Z-210621T0300Z/ Little Snake Forecast Area-White River Forecast Area- Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area-Eastern Uinta Basin- Colorado River Basin- 335 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200, 202, 207, 486, AND 490... * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 200 Little Snake Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 202 White River Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 207 Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area. In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 486 Eastern Uinta Basin and Fire Weather Zone 490 Colorado River Basin. * WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Sunday afternoon. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...8 to 13 percent Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Conditions may be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to low RH and strong wind gusts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
637 WWUS85 KGJT 190311 RFWGJT URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 911 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 UTZ485-191500- /O.EXP.KGJT.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210619T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0033.210620T1800Z-210621T0300Z/ Eastern Ashley National Forest- 911 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 485... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 485... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 485... * AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 485 Eastern Ashley National Forest. * WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Sunday afternoon. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...10 to 15 percent Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ291-293-295-191500- /O.EXP.KGJT.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210619T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Northern San Juan Forecast Area-Gunnison Basin Forecast Area- Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area- 911 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 291, 293, AND 295... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 291, 293, AND 295... * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 291 Northern San Juan Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 293 Gunnison Basin Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 295 Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area. * WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected today and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ UTZ491-191500- /O.EXP.KGJT.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210619T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Southeast Utah- 911 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 491 ABOVE 7000 FEET... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 491 ABOVE 7000 FEET... * AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 491 Southeast Utah above 7000 feet. * WINDS...West 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ UTZ490-191500- /O.EXA.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0033.210620T1800Z-210621T0300Z/ Colorado River Basin- 911 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 490... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 490... * AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 490 Colorado River Basin. * WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Sunday afternoon. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...8 to 13 percent Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Conditions may be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to low RH and strong wind gusts. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ290-292-UTZ487-191500- /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0033.210620T1800Z-210621T0300Z/ Paradox Valley Forecast Area-North Fork Forecast Area-Book Cliffs- 911 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 290, 292, AND 487... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 290, 292, AND 487... * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 290 Paradox Valley Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 292 North Fork Forecast Area. In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 487 Book Cliffs. * WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Sunday afternoon. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...8 to 13 percent Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Conditions may be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and low RH and strong gusts on Sunday. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ203-205-294-191500- /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0032.210619T1800Z-210620T0300Z/ Lower Colorado River-Colorado River Headwaters- Southwest Colorado Upper West Forecast Area- 911 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 203, 205, AND 294... * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 203 Lower Colorado River, Fire Weather Zone 205 Colorado River Headwaters and Fire Weather Zone 294 Southwest Colorado Upper West Forecast Area. * WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Conditions may be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ200-202-207-UTZ486-191500- /O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0033.210620T1800Z-210621T0300Z/ Little Snake Forecast Area-White River Forecast Area- Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area-Eastern Uinta Basin- 911 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200, 202, 207, AND 486... * AFFECTED AREA...In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 200 Little Snake Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 202 White River Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 207 Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area. In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 486 Eastern Uinta Basin. * WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Sunday afternoon. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...8 to 13 percent Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Conditions may be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to low RH and strong wind gusts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Jun 17, 12:05 PM MDT, 2 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 17, 12:05 PM MDT, 2 hours 36 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1205 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 436 AM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021
Moisture continues to slowly increase under this ridge of high
pressure that remains overhead, as precipitable water (PW) on last
evening's sounding for KGJT rose to 0.46 inches with a still very
dry subcloud layer. The models tend to be a bit overzealous with
the moisture return as latest guidance has really backed off on
the amount of PW working under the ridge across the Four Corners
into west-central Colorado. Latest projections now show about 0.5
to 0.6 this afternoon with PW increasing closer to 0.75 inches by
Friday afternoon as opposed to the near an inch shown in earlier
runs. Still think this is a rather quick return of moisture as the
subcloud layer remains very dry. This moisture increase though
should result in an increase in thunderstorm activity and coverage
on Friday.
For today though, coverage looks similar to yesterday which is
isolated storms this afternoon over the southern San Juans and
Abajo mountains, possibly extending a bit up the central Colorado
divide. Given less moisture than earlier predicted, high
temperatures have a good chance to smash records once again. Hot
and dry conditions continue for at least one more day with a
chance to be similar to the heat yesterday where Grand Junction
came within one degree of tying the all time record high EVER! As
said earlier, Friday will be met with better coverage of storm
activity mainly across the high terrain. With a dry subcloud
layer, lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the primary
threats with any storm activity. Storms look to favor the
mountains of southeast Utah as well as the southern and central
divide with scattered coverage. This is enough to warrant the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for dry thunderstorms for Friday
afternoon and evening across these aforementioned areas.
Elsewhere, the hot and dry will persist for at least one more day
with near record breaking heat...hence, the Excessive Heat
Warnings across the valleys of eastern Utah and west-central
Colorado remain in effect through Friday evening. Nighttime lows
both tonight and Friday night though will be much warmer than seen
previously due to presence of more cloud cover and elevated
moisture.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 436 AM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021
A rather robust shortwave trough will move east across southern
Canada on Saturday, working to slowly weaken the broad ridge over
the Four Corners region. The weakening of the ridge will bring a
slow cooling trend, but high temperatures are still expected to
run around 10 degrees above average into next week. Moisture will
continue pushing into the area on Saturday, with more widespread
coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms with trough
passage. While the threat for dry thunderstorms will be a bit less
due to increasing moisture, the sub cloud layer still remains dry
that lightning and gusty outflow winds still remain the primary
concerns with any storm activity. Even if some storms exhibit
wetting rain, any lightning has potential for fire starts due to
the extended hot and dry period this will follow. All this means
an elevated fire weather threat across the area due to dry
thunderstorms for the first half of the weekend.
The fire weather threat continues into Sunday and Monday, but
instead of dry thunderstorms, critical fire weather conditions
will be due to increasing winds and low RH values. A rather deep
trough is expected to progress through the upper midwest and Great
Lakes region early next week, which will tighten the pressure
gradient over northwestern Colorado, resulting in continued breezy
and dry conditions across a decent portion of the area. Looking
into midweek, confidence does decrease a bit in the forecast.
Models want to dig a trough off the Pacific coast and build a
ridge back into the Intermountain West, but disagree on the
strength and position of these features. Long story short, the
weekend into early next week is shaping up to be another period
of critical fire weather conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021
VFR will dominate through the day. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible in the high terrain of the San Juans however storms
should generally not affect terminal locations. Expect
southwesterly winds with occasional gusts over 30 mph near any
storm today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 436 AM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021
Moisture undercutting the anomalously strong ridge over the region
will fuel isolated storms, mainly along the Continental Divide and
extending west into the Abajo mountains of southeast Utah, late
this afternoon and evening. A number of these storms will be dry
due to the lack of moisture in the subcloud layer. All moist
convection is likely to result in strong outflow winds. Convective
activity looks very similar in coverage to yesterday according to
hi res models, which really only resulted in some isolated storms
over the Abajos and southern San Juans. Since coverage appears
mainly isolated, opted not to issue any Fire Weather highlights
for dry thunderstorms today.
Better chances for fire starts look to occur on Friday as
thunderstorms are expected to increase with concerns spreading
into southeast Utah's high country as well. At least scattered
storms look to occur with a dry subcloud layer. Therefore, in
coordination with SLC, PUB and SPC...decided to issue a Fire
Weather Watch for dry thunderstorms for Utah Fire Weather zone 491
for higher elevations above 7000 feet, as well as Colorado Fire
Weather zones 291, 293 and 295, which includes the southern and
central Colorado divide as fuels remain critical and we are
following an extended period of very hot and dry conditions. Fuels
are considered not critical though on the eastern side of the
divide as they have received more moisture than the west slope,
which remains in extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought while
the eastern side of Colorado is relatively drought free. The
differences between the west and east slope are quite drastic!
By Saturday, it appears dry thunderstorms will be less of a
threat for western Colorado while becoming an increased threat in
eastern Utah which resides on the fringes of this activity and is
likely to maintain a relatively dry subcloud layer. Again, strong
outflow winds from any activity, virga or otherwise will generate
strong and unpredictable outflow winds. Regardless of the
potential for wetting rain, still feel that after an extended hot
and dry period, any lightning on Saturday could result in fire
starts due to this activity following an extended hot and dry
period...so later shifts may need to consider additional Fire
Weather highlights for Saturday. Still some uncertainty though on
coverage.
Fire weather concerns pivot to wind and relative humidity on
Sunday as the ridge breaks down and an approaching cold front from
the northwest causes winds to increase across much of the region,
but especially in the north. According to long range models, the
front will pass through the region largely dry on Sunday night, so
wind and relative humidity could continue to be a problem for the
southern zones heading into early next week.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT Friday night for
COZ006-020.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for COZ291-293-295.
UT...Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT Friday night for
UTZ024-027-029.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for UTZ491.
&&
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...BGB/MDA
AVIATION...MAC
FIRE WEATHER...TGJTHazardous weather outlook, Jun 17, 4:39 AM MDT, 10 hours 2 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 439 AM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-181045- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 439 AM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Excessive heat warnings are in effect through the end of the week as high temperatures will break records across the forecast area. Isolated storms are possible this afternoon over mainly the southern mountains with gusty winds and lightning the primary concerns. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Triple digits will continue across many lower elevations with record highs being met or exceeded through Friday. Precipitation chances will slowly increase Friday afternoon and continue into Saturday with late-day storms mainly over the higher terrain, with the best focus across the south. Gusty winds and lightning appear the main concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Junction, CO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 3:42 AM MDT | Fire Weather Watch | GJT | Grand, San Juan | 11 hr |
| Jun 17, 2:41 PM MDT | Fire Weather Watch | GJT | Daggett, Grand, San Juan, Uintah | 24 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Colorado, 2021Red Flag Warnings in Utah, 2021Every red flag warning in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.