Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Grand Junction, CO

335 
WGUS65 KGJT 020001
FFAGJT

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
601 PM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021

COZ008-010-013-020115-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210702T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Colorado River Basin-Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain
Valleys-Flat Tops-
601 PM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GRIZZLY CREEK FIRE BURN AREA HAS 
EXPIRED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of northwest Colorado and west 
central Colorado, including the following areas, in northwest 
Colorado, Flat Tops. In west central Colorado, Central Colorado 
River Basin and Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys has 
expired.

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat.

$$

NL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1105 AM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021

It appears we are beginning to work out of the cooler and wetter
pattern into a warmer and slightly drier period beginning today.
A digging downstream trough East of the MS Valley will force the
Bermuda High out of Texas and into Desert Southwest over the next
48 hours. Temperatures that have been below normal should push up
toward normal today and then surpass that mark on Friday. The low
that has been hanging out over northern Utah the past few days
will be translating slowly northeast as this pattern changes. This
will likely provide some better focus for thunderstorm
development over far northeast Utah this afternoon. Otherwise we
will be transitioning to the more typical summer pattern of storms
forming over the higher terrain by late morning...eventually
moving off to selected valleys by late afternoon. Model trends
continue to show less coverage in the lower elevations and did try
to incorporate this into the forecast the next few days. With
PWAT still lingering around 0.75 through the end of the
week...brief moderate to heavy rainfall will still be a
possibility. Soundings indicate our storm motion to the northeast
is picking up a few kts compared to the last few days. This should
help lower...but totally eliminate...the threat of excess runoff
on our burn scars.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021

We will have to watch for convectively induced waves that rotate
around the Southwest high that perhaps enhance lift across our
area. Otherwise the big changes from this ridge will be the rise
in temperatures with highs reaching 5-10 degrees above normal.
Despite little change in the moisture this heat will increase dew
point depressions and lead to more sub-cloud evaporation. This
makes it difficult to determine the potential for heavy rainfall
and dry thunderstorms. By the middle of next week there are signs
that troughing over the Pacific Northwest will suppress the ridge
over our region, but not by much.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021

Showers and storms will reform again by early this afternoon. Widely
scattered coverage of storms suggests impacts are not probable at
the TAF sites so VCTS is in the forecast attm. Gusty outflow winds
would be the main concern from storms today.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
432 AM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-021045-
Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-
Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor-
Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-
Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
432 AM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorm development is expected over the the higher terrain
of eastern Utah and western Colorado by early afternoon. Some
storms will likely survive into the valleys by late in the day.
Lightning and gusty outflow winds near storms be the main threats
to monitor. A few storms could produce locally moderate to heavy
rainfall rates as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorm development will be possible through the weekend.
Expect isolated gusty winds and heavy downpours with the strongest
cells.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
841 AM MDT THU JUL 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE GRAND JUNCTION     39.10N 108.53W
07/01/2021  M0.24 INCH       MESA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PRECIPITATION TOTAL FROM THIS MORNINGS
            STORM.

&&