Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Stratus and areas of drizzle continue for much of the area this
afternoon. The far southwest has a little sunshine this afternoon
and temperatures have warmed up more in that area. Temperatures have
warmed up across the entire area a little more than yesterday, but
it is still cooler than initially forecast this morning.

For tonight, the main concern is still the thunderstorm potential. A
surface low and cold front in the panhandle of Nebraska is expected
to move through the forecast area tonight. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the front tonight then spread across
the area during the night. At this time, there is little CAPE to
work with, but the CAPE increases just ahead of the front. The best
chances for thunderstorms and the severe potential will be in north
central Kansas and far southern portions of Nebraska as the storms
take off during the evening. The CAPE increases across the eastern
part of the forecast area during the overnight hours and decreases
quickly as the front moves through. Wind gusts are the main threat,
but there could be some hail since the freezing level is lower and
temperatures are cooler. An isolated tornado is also possible along
the line of storms.

On Wednesday, expect there to be some showers and isolated thunder
mainly in the eastern half of the forecast area, during the morning.
Precipitation will end from west to east through the day. The main
upper level wave does not make it out of the area until Wednesday
evening and the far east may have a few lingering showers Wednesday
evening.

The pressure gradient is expected to continue for Wednesday into
Thursday and with winds aloft in the 40 to 50 knot range, expect
gusty northwest winds to continue mainly during the day time hours.
Temperatures will be on the cooler side both days, with highs in the
50s. Clouds will clear out of the area Wednesday night and sunshine
is expected for Thursday.

Friday through Sunday should be dry. A surface high moves through
the area Friday into Saturday. There is a little warm advection and
temperatures will warm a little on Friday and a little more on
Saturday. A cold front moves through Saturday night and by Sunday
with clouds increasing behind the front, highs will be in the 40s.

An upper level wave moves into the area Sunday night through
Tuesday. This will bring a chance for precipitation and cooler
weather. Sunday night there will be a chance for precipitation,
mainly in south central Nebraska. Temperatures cool off and
temperatures at 850mb are below zero across much of the area and so
expect there to be some snow. Expect a break in the precipitation
for Monday, but a reinforcing wave moves in and there is another
chance for snow as the since the temperatures are cooler Monday
night.

Temperatures Sunday night and Monday night will be cold enough to
bring an end to the growing season.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Poor conditions expected at both terminals through the overnight
hours as low CIGS and windy conditions expected. Expect modest LLWS
to continue ahead of an approaching front...diminishing during the
late evening hours. While CIGS are not expected to improve
overnight...expect a chance for TSRAs...some of which could be
strong or severe...to impact the terminals as storms eventually
develop and propagate eastward overnight. Some improvement is
possible late in the period as LIFR CIGS are eventually expected
to lift around midday with MVFR and eventually VFR conditions
returning by late Wednesday afternoon as the chance for additional
TSRAs or SHRAs diminish. Strong northwest winds with gusts over
30KTS expected behind the approaching front Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
328 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
271200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
328 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible between 9 PM and 3 AM
tonight. Wind gusts to around 65 MPH, hail around the size of
quarters and an isolated tornado are the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Non-severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, especially east
of Highway 281.

Gusty winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday. Northwest winds
will gust to around 40 mph on Wednesday and around 45 mph on
Thursday.

Freezing temperatures are expected for most of the outlook area
Sunday night into Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight, mainly between 9 PM and
3 AM.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
848 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

KSZ005-017-NEZ082-083-270230-
Rooks KS-Phillips KS-Harlan NE-Furnas NE-
848 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Rooks, Phillips,
Furnas and southwestern Harlan Counties through 930 PM CDT...

At 848 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles south of Hendley to near Norton to
near Edmond to near Hill City to 8 miles southwest of Palco. Movement
was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Palco and Nicodemus around 900 PM CDT.
  Damar around 905 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Beaver City,
Zurich, Logan, Hollinger, Webster State Park, Prairie View, Stamford,
Long Island, Speed, Phillipsburg, Stockton, Orleans, Glade and
Woodruff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for north central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9963 4000 10018 4026 10019 4026 9962
      4001 9919 3913 9918 3913 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 243DEG 35KT 3998 9998 3980 9995 3959 9989 3939
9979 3918 9970

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Rossi