Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Late This Afternoon Into Tonight...

The big story will be the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms
later this evening into tonight. Forecast models are in pretty good
agreement that our forecast area should remain dry through at least
6 pm. Thunderstorms are likely to develop between 5-6 pm just
northwest of our forecast area and then slide into our northwestern
zones (Ord to Gothenburg) between 6-8 pm. Storms will be slower to
reach our Tri-Cities with possible arrival time primarily between 9
pm and midnight.

There is good model agreement in the late afternoon/early evening
thunderstorm development. The questions reside more in the coverage
and intensity of these thunderstorms. The 12Z NAM NEST continues to
be the most aggressive in both coverage and intensity with the
formation of a convective line that surges south with outflow
boundaries bringing possibly severe winds. The HRRR and 12Z NAM
indicate more scattered convection that could be strong at the
onset, but then quickly decreases in coverage and intensity. The 12Z
HRW NSSL and 12Z HRW ARW both are similar to the 12Z NAM NEST
indicating that the convection should be rather widespread across
the forecast area by late evening. Our official forecast follows
more closely in-line with the wetter NAM and HRW models.

Regarding the severe weather potential, the greatest threat for
severe weather will be early on during the first several hours
after thunderstorm development primarily between 6-11 pm across
our northwestern zones. The wind threat seems to be the biggest
threat although there could be a brief window for severe hail in
that first 1-3 hours. Eventually, the belief is that these storms
should merge into a line that could produce severe winds in the
60-70 mph range until the gust front gets too far ahead of the
line and then it will just turn into a possibly heavy rain event
for some areas during the late night hours. Will have to watch out
for flooding if storms start training over the same areas, which
is a possibility.

Sunday Into Sunday Night...
This should be the best day of the bunch with cooler temperatures
behind the cold front holding highs down into the upper 70s to
around 80 over Nebraska, to lower 80s over north central Kansas.
There could be a few remaining showers/thunderstorms across our
southeastern zones in the morning, but after these exit the area,
odds are that most areas should be dry through the rest of the
day. We will then see some return flow and a low level jet that
could result in additional thunderstorms late Sunday night with
northeastern zones being most favored.

Monday Into Monday Night...
We will start the warmup with decent southerly flow and highs back
into the lower and middle 80s Nebraska zones to the upper 80s and
around 90 over north central Kansas. The big thing to watch out
for will be the chance for additional warm air advection nocturnal
thunderstorms Monday night mainly across our eastern zones,
although they may even set up east of our forecast area. We are
already in a SPC marginal risk outlook for Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...
We will see an upper level ridge build across the western high
plains and thus this period stands the best chance at being dry
as well as warmer. Highs should be back to at least around 90 by
Wednesday and probably well into the 90s over northern Kansas.

Thursday Through Saturday...
The upper level ridge should still be the dominate weather feature
on Thursday, but there is a slight chance that thunderstorms could
make it into our northwest zones by late day. Thursday should
still be hot with a lot of folks around 90 or better. That next
upper trough could start to influence our forecast area a little
bit more by Friday and Saturday with cooling temperatures and
increasing chances for thunderstorms.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

The big concern as noted above will center around the chance for
strong to severe thunderstorms late this evening. The soonest that
we could see thunderstorms at our TAF sites would probably be 8 or
9 PM, but likely it will be later than that. The wind will be
gusty out of the south until the front comes through with the
thunderstorms. Strong to severe thunderstorm winds can not be
ruled out this evening and we'll need to keep an eye out for how
the thunderstorms develop and track later this evening. Behind the
front and thunderstorms, the winds will become northerly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

VFR conditions expected to continue for the next few hours as a
line of thunderstorms continues to develop to the northwest and
eventually propagates across both terminals. This front will
likely bring at least MVFR VSBYS with -TSRAs...and possibly some
MVFR CIGS as well, but confidence of CIGS is lower. Winds should
diminish ahead of the front before becoming northwesterly and
gusting to near 20 KTS through much of the overnight hours.
Conditions should begin to improve around daybreak Sunday...with
VFR conditions returning around 29/12-13Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Rossi

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