Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Upper level northwest flow over the central Plains today with a few
small vort maxes upstream that will arrive late tonight into early
Monday morning. A surface boundary will wander east into our western
CWA later on today, and may eventually meander back to the west at
some point by tomorrow. Later this evening a decent low-level jet
will kick in with the axis just west of the CWA and could help
support convection if it gets going. With the combination of the
vort maxes within northwest flow and low-level jet, along with a
slowly moving front as a possible focus, we will probably have at
least a couple of storms pop up in this vicinity, focused well west
of the tri-cities. The best support for severe weather would
definitely be farther west in the CWA, with both the best deep layer
shear and MLCAPEs this afternoon/evening in our west. Shear
magnitude in the 0-6 km layer in our far west should be near 35 KTS,
with MLCAPE in the 1500 J/kg realm. The boundary could drift east
over time, and a couple of vort maxes later overnight into Sunday
morning along with the boundary nearby will give us more chances
of showers/t-storms with similar conditions persisting into
Monday. Severe parameters indicate strong to severe storms
possible both Sunday and Monday. Our best shot at precip might be
toward Sunday night and early Monday morning with a possible MCS
generated from a wave moving through along with low-level jet
support for maintenance.

Our best shot at a dry period will be Tuesday through Wednesday
with overall shortwave ridging ahead of a trough moving into the
the northwest United States. Models differ in exact timing, but
this is the general time frame. Then the wave moves into the
northern Plains and puts us into a cyclonic flow trough here,
bringing back a shot at more storms and helping to keep the
temperatures cool, especially toward the end of the forecast
toward the end of the work week when we might not make it past 80
for highs by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

A line of thunderstorms has developed west of the terminals early
this morning. Model guidance slowly progresses this line east
through daybreak, with a VCTS or two expected to impact the
terminals...mainly during the overnight hours. Given the
relatively high based nature of this convection, VFR conditions
are still expected to prevail with BKN CIGS expected to remain
around 10kft. After thunderstorm chances diminish after day break,
skies will gradually clear with steady southerly winds anticipated
through the day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Heinlein
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
248 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
151200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
248 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible for portions of the area tonight across
the outlook area. A few of these storms may be strong to severe,
mainly along and west of Highway 183.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There are on and off chances for thunderstorms Sunday through
Friday. A few storms may be strong to severe Sunday and Monday,
especially west of Highway 183.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Heinlein

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1237 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

KSZ005-NEZ083-150615-
Phillips KS-Harlan NE-
1237 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Phillips
and southeastern Harlan Counties through 115 AM CDT...

At 1236 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Woodruff, or 19 miles north of Phillipsburg, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Woodruff around 1250 AM CDT.
  Alma around 1255 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9951 4025 9951 4021 9921 4006 9918
      4000 9918 4000 9919 3999 9918 3979 9920
      3980 9954
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 288DEG 6KT 4001 9944

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
221 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

NEZ084-085-150800-
Franklin NE-Webster NE-
221 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Franklin and northwestern Webster Counties through 300 AM CDT...

At 220 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hildreth, or 21 miles southeast of Holdrege, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Upland around 240 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Campbell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4021 9902 4035 9896 4035 9853 4010 9859
TIME...MOT...LOC 0720Z 281DEG 17KT 4030 9901

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
235 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

NEZ083-150815-
Harlan NE-
235 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Harlan
County through 315 AM CDT...

At 235 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Huntley, or 12 miles south of Holdrege, moving
south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Huntley and Orleans.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4030 9950 4035 9937 4035 9933 4013 9919
      4012 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 0735Z 340DEG 8KT 4026 9942

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rossi