Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
311 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

Main concerns include a small chance of pop-up storms this
afternoon/evening from insolation, then a shot at some strong to
severe storms Saturday afternoon/evening. Also, back to some
hotter/sultry conditions for Sunday into Tuesday.

There is a weak surface boundary detected at the surface from
interpreting LAPS streamline, dewpoints, and instability axis
stretching from the northeast into the northern half of the CWA.
This could be the focus of a couple of pop-up thunderstorms if we
wind up breaking the cap today. Models indicate a potential sunrise
surprise in our northeast late tonight and early Friday morning as
well with a little bit of support from low-level jet convergence
for a short time.

The next shot at precip may be as soon as Friday night as a stout
low-level jet develops and could help maintain shower/thunderstorm
activity.

For Saturday, a wave trekking across the northern Plains could spark
some convection in the afternoon/evening, depending on timing of the
wave. Bulk shear of 25-30 KTS and MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg near the
associated surface boundary could touch off some strong to severe
storms, especially in our east as the timing of the boundary will be
highly influential.

Heat and humidity will continue to build, especially during the
Sunday-Tuesday time frame, with Monday potentially being the warmest
with heat indexes getting into the 100-105 degree range. By mid-week
next week, the trough in the west shifts to the central part of the
country and could give us some at least spotty chances of more rain
and slightly cooler temps.

As for smoke, plan on more hazy skies with continued large burning
wildfires upstream.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

Main issue to contend with will be potential for enough smoke to
affect visibility this late afternoon/evening, and the potential
for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon/evening. Overall
potential for both smoke and storms looks minimal, but will
indicate that it is a possibility KGRI, while chances are somewhat
less at KEAR the way it appears now. Confidence is not high for
the potential for MVFR tonight, but rarely is when involving
smoke from distant wildfires mixing down to the surface.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
308 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
061200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
308 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly north of I-80
this afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not expected at
this time, though a strong storm cannot be ruled out. A stray
non-severe thunderstorm is possible late tonight for locations
northeast of the tri-cities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There are three additional time frames with thunderstorm chances
for various portions of the outlook area...Friday evening through
late Saturday night, Monday evening, and Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday. Saturday could see a few strong to severe
storms.

Turning to heat concerns, each afternoon and early evening
between Sunday and Tuesday is expected to feature heat index
values as high as 100 to 105 degrees, particularly within
southern
and eastern portions of the outlook area. Although still several
days away and subject to change somewhat, Monday currently
appears to be the overall-worst day for heat-related concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any small hail or wind damage.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Heinlein

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
417 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

NEZ061-052145-
Buffalo NE-
417 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Buffalo
County through 445 PM CDT...

At 417 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Miller, or 27 miles northwest of Kearney, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Buffalo County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 9910 4102 9905 4083 9933 4105 9942
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 316DEG 7KT 4105 9932

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mangels