Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
115 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Busy shift overnight will make for a brief and later issued
discussion.

Main focus will be on chances of showers/thunderstorms
today/evening.

The last round of MCS activity is on its way out of the CWA early
this morning, with spotty shower/thunderstorm activity for a good
chunk of the early morning. Looks like we get a bit of a lull
toward late morning/early afternoon before a spoke of energy
rotates south and clips our CWA, focusing on our northeast. MLCAPE
increases to the 1000-1500 J/kg range for the most part, with
higher MLCAPE in our east/northeast. Deep layer shear is shunted
south quite quickly this morning, and will be highly lacking,
especially in areas where we have a highest POPs in the northeast
where we are carrying roughly 50 percent chances of precip in our
northeast. Cool mid-level temps indicate that we should have
little problem with producing pulsy thunderstorms that could give
us some marginally severe hail. Although deep layer shear is more
favorable in our south where we may hold on to 25-30 KTS of deep
layer shear this afternoon, MLCAPE in this area will peak in the
1000-1500 J/kg give or take away from the focus of the spoke of
energy mentioned earlier. Chances of thunderstorms diminish by
mid-evening as the mid to upper wave of energy continues to move
south and eventually away from the CWA. With generally low shear
and marginal instability, small to marginally severe hail will be
the primary threat to afternoon/evening storms that develop.
Severe threat diminishes after 9 pm, but some straggler t-storms
could stick around into the overnight. For temperatures, still
looks like we are headed toward near 80, or just under 80, perhaps
a tad warmer from the previous forecast, but still cool. Leftover
sky cover should help keep temps from getting too toasty and
cooler, drier air is moving in behind a cold front that has pushed
into Kansas.

We could have some stubborn stratus and sprinkles/showers hang
around during the early morning Sunday, but for the most part,
Sunday should be dry with subsidence occurring behind the passing
wave from the previous afternoon/night.

Monday and Tuesday remain dry and warmer with chances of t-storms
returning for mid-week with typical highs in the mid 80s to near
lower 90s for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Ceiling/visibility/precipitation:
Main concerns are: 1) Decent chance of passing
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon-early evening (possibly
briefly strong to marginally-severe) and 2) increasing probability
of potentially several hours of MVFR ceiling late this evening
into late Sunday morning. Starting with the shorter term issue,
have kept a generic "vicinity thunderstorm" (VCTS) through 01Z,
with a TEMPO for -TSRA from 19-23Z to capture the main window of
opportunity for passing storms. Not expecting "high end severe" by
any means, but the most intense storms could contain hail up to
around quarter size/wind gusts 40-50KT. As for ceiling trends, a
lower-end VFR ceiling is certainly possible this afternoon-evening
(perhaps high-end MVFR under any storms), but overall VFR should
prevail until at least 04-06Z. Thereafter, have prevailing MVFR
kicking in through most of the remainder of the period, with
latest models looking more aggressive with lower ceiling
coverage/duration. Have both sites returning to low-end VFR by
15-16Z, but a ceiling could linger. Visibility-wise, cannot rule
out brief MVFR during any storms and perhaps also in light
fog/haze toward sunrise, but with VFR most likely to prevail the
vast majority of the time have kept it VFR for now.

Winds:
Aside from any possible convectively-enhanced winds this
afternoon/early evening, rather breezy north-northwest winds will
prevail through around sunset, with sustained speeds commonly
15-20KT/gusts to around 25KT. By around 03-04Z, a lighter
northerly wind generally around 10KT will be in place, with this
lighter regime prevailing through the remainder of the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Heinlein
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
254 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND GST     HASTINGS AIRPORT        40.60N 98.43W
07/10/2021  M52 MPH          ADAMS              NE   ASOS

&&

MANGELS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
302 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

NEZ075>077-085>087-102030-
Thayer NE-Nuckolls NE-Adams NE-Webster NE-Clay NE-Fillmore NE-
302 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CLAY...NUCKOLLS...
WEBSTER...SOUTHERN ADAMS...SOUTHWESTERN FILLMORE AND WESTERN THAYER
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 300 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ong to near Lawrence to 6 miles north of
Campbell. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Deweese, Ong and Rosemont around 305 PM CDT.
  Shickley and Lawrence around 310 PM CDT.
  Davenport around 315 PM CDT.
  Nelson and Carleton around 320 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Cowles, Inavale,
Superior, Hebron, Red Cloud, Deshler, Belvidere, Nora and Bostwick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9805 4000 9872 4043 9872 4057 9776
      4013 9749
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 331DEG 36KT 4048 9784 4037 9827 4038 9869

Thies

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
318 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ005-006-NEZ073-074-083>085-102100-
Phillips KS-Smith KS-Franklin NE-Webster NE-Phelps NE-Kearney NE-
Harlan NE-
318 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SMITH...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...FRANKLIN...WESTERN WEBSTER...SOUTHERN PHELPS...SOUTHERN
KEARNEY AND HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Campbell to near Oxford. Movement was
south at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds up to 45 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Campbell and Upland around 320 PM CDT.
  Stamford around 335 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Orleans,
Riverton, Long Island and Woodruff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms. Do not
drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4041 9963 4040 9872 3987 9861 3984 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 344DEG 35KT 4033 9880 4032 9962

Thies

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