Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1253 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

Updated the forecast for today/tonight to account for the sooner-
than-expected development of convection during the mid to late
morning. This earlier and closer development than expected has
increased the potential for measurable rain farther southeast, and
have reflected this in the forecast. Chance of severe remains
roughly the same as shear remains weak along a cold front with
decent convergence. As MLCAPE increases, we may see an uptick of
marginal severe potential, but these storms will be quite pulsey
with such weak shear and mid-level lapse rates are also on the
weak side.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

Today/Tonight (Thunderstorms)... This will be the best chance
we've had for more widespread appreciable rain in awhile now.
However, not everyone will probably get wet. There is strong
forcing along a cold front that is associated with an upper level
trough axis, which will slide southeast across the forecast area
this afternoon and evening.

The forcing is strong and the cap is weak, therefore we expect
thunderstorms will develop along the front by early afternoon (1-2
PM) just northwest of our forecast area. These storms should tap
into pretty decent instability with 2500 J/KG CAPE values and the
storms should expand in coverage as they track southeast through
the early evening hours. However, the storms may begin to weaken
and decrease in coverage as we near sunset and have less
instability to work with given that deep layer shear values are
weak at only 20-25 kts. Pulse type isolated severe thunderstorms
will be possible, but long lasting severe is not likely given the
lack of shear. Therefore the SPC marginal risk seems to be on
target for this present, but limited severe threat. I think what
most people are hoping is that we can get some decent rain out of
this frontal passage and its reasonable that at least some areas
could pick up a quick 0.50 to perhaps over 1 inch under some of
the heavier storms.

Temperatures today will still be hot south of the front with
widespread 90s. However, will continue to call for slightly cooler highs
in the upper 80s across our northwest zones given the early
development of storms and expanding clouds early in the afternoon
across these northwestern zones.

Wednesday...
The big story will be the cooler temperatures behind the front
with highs in the lower 80s. The NBM (Model blend) gives us some
small precipitation chances across our southeastern zones on
Wednesday, but in all likelihood precipitation on Wednesday will
probably be southeast of our forecast area.

Thursday...
Unfortunately it will be only a brief cool down as
highs should be back up to around or into the 90s on Thursday as
a warm front lifts north and the wind turns around and becomes
southerly again. Thursday should be dry.

Friday through Sunday...
We should warm up pretty good on Friday ahead of the next upper
trough and associated cold front. A strong trough for this time of
year should send a cold front through sometime late Friday
afternoon or Friday night. This will also bring with it a decent
chance for thunderstorms mainly Friday evening into Friday night.
The upper trough track will make a difference in our precipitation
chances on Saturday. The current expected track favors
thunderstorms across our eastern zones and points east from there.
Sunday currently appears mostly dry with the trough pushing east.
Both Saturday and Sunday will be cooler than normal with
northerly flow behind the departing upper trough holding highs
down in the upper 70s or lower 80s and our forecast may be too
warm.

Monday...
The upper trough will depart further to the east and we expect dry
weather and the beginning of our next warm up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

Convection developed sooner than earlier expected, and farther
east. Looking more likely that there will be a short window of
storms coming through late afternoon/early evening, especially.
Evidence of IFR to possibly LIFR ceilings well behind the cold
front over South Dakota, so this does look realistic later tonight
of the lower ceiling moving in behind the cold front into
Wednesday morning. Deep layer shear is quite limited, so only a
marginal risk of severe weather is in effect for both terminals.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Heinlein
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Heinlein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
446 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
071000-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
446 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are likely across the area this afternoon
into tonight. Some of these storms may be strong to marginally
severe, as they move southeast across the area. Strong winds to 60
mph and hail to around the size of quarters will be the primary
hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There are additional chances for thunderstorms across portions of
the outlook area Wednesday and then again Thursday night through
Sunday. Probably the best chance at more widespread thunderstorms
during this period will be Friday evening into Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any hail or wind damage this
afternoon and evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Wesely

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1211 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

NEZ039-061745-
Valley NE-
1211 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY UNTIL 1245
PM CDT...

At 1211 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fort Hartsuff State Park, or 8 miles northwest of Ord, moving east at
15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ord around 1220 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4159 9875 4161 9915 4174 9916 4174 9875
TIME...MOT...LOC 1711Z 268DEG 14KT 4171 9900

ADP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1227 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

NEZ060-061800-
Dawson NE-
1227 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DAWSON COUNTY UNTIL 100
PM CDT...

At 1227 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles northeast of Willow Island to near
Eustis. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of central Dawson
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 10007 4105 9971 4088 9969 4079 9969
      4070 9971 4070 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 287DEG 21KT 4103 9999 4071 10002

ADP

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1258 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

NEZ060-061830-
Dawson NE-
1258 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DAWSON COUNTY UNTIL 130
PM CDT...

At 1258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles northeast of Cozad to near Johnson
Lake. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
  Eddyville.

LAT...LON 4084 10006 4105 9994 4104 9958 4086 9964
      4070 9971 4070 10006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 288DEG 12KT 4095 9983 4071 9989

ADP

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