Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
628 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

Water-vapor satellite imagery shows the area in broad
northwesterly flow aloft, with visible satellite showing
scattered cumulus developing over north-central and northeast
Nebraska. This will be the area to watch for convective initiation
over the next few hours. Any storms that develop in this area
should push south-southeastward through the evening. Latest CAM
guidance has been trending farther east, but northeastern portions
of the forecast area could still be impacted by thunderstorms
this evening.

Mesoanalysis currently shows 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE in this
area, with an impressive 50kts of effective bulk shear. This would
potentially support a few supercells with large, damaging hail
and perhaps isolated wind damage. Fortunately, cloud bases will
be high and low level shear is lacking, so tornadoes are very
unlikely. CAMs also agree that any storms that develop will
quickly wane after 9-10pm with the loss of diurnal heating.

Tomorrow is still set up to be a very warm day as we see rising
heights aloft. Highs should be solidly in the mid to upper 90s.
Southerly winds may be a touch lighter than today, and heat index
values will likely exceed 100 degrees in most spots. Some
locations may approach heat advisory criteria (105 degrees), but
this doesn't appear to be widespread enough to warrant issuance.

Late Wednesday evening and overnight, a subtle shortwave and a
strengthening low-level jet will promote scattered to widespread thunderstorm
development near or just west of the forecast area. Deep shear
will be a little weaker, but there will still be ample instability
for sustained updrafts. The west-east orientation of the shear
vectors would also favor this moving through the area as one or
more organized lines, potentially increasing the threat for
damaging wind.

On Thursday, northern portions of the area will likely be a bit
cooler due to remaining cloud cover and the arrival of surface
trough. Southern areas will still likely reach the mid to upper
90s, though. Thursday's convective development will be somewhat
dependent on the previous night. Nevertheless, there is good
agreement amongst the models for thunderstorms to redevelop in
the late afternoon and evening along/near a stalled front or
remnant outflow. Therefore, we have likely PoPs for the majority
of the forecast area. Once again, this will be supportive of
severe weather, but details on location and intensity are still a
little more uncertain.

Friday through the weekend will be trending cooler, but chances
for thunderstorms will continue through at least Saturday as upper
troughing deepens over the northern Plains.

Hopefully the dry spots in the forecast area can pick up some
meaningful precipitation later this week, because a drier (and
warmer) pattern will arrive again next week as ridging builds over
the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

Thunderstorms to the northeast of the terminals should remain
mostly to the northeast, but will leave them in for KGRI for a
short period since they are not too far away. It is a pretty slim
chance for thunder. The rest of the period should have mainly
clear skies with southerly winds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...JCB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
139 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
231200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
139 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a short window for isolated thunderstorms late this
afternoon and this evening, mainly in the 5PM to 10PM timeframe. The
primary threat area is north of Interstate 80 and east of Highway
281. Some of these storms may be severe with hail to the size of
ping pong balls and wind gusts around 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat index values are expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees in
many locations Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

There are also chances for thunderstorms both Wednesday and
Thursday nights. There is a potential for severe weather on both
nights.

Daily chances for thunderstorms continue Friday through Sunday,
before trending back towards a drier pattern for the beginning of next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any hail or strong wind gusts
from thunderstorms this evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Mangels

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
828 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GENOA                   41.45N 97.73W
06/22/2021                   NANCE              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF TREE BRANCHES DOWNED IN GENOA.
            WIND GUST REPORTS RECEIVED WERE AROUND 75
            MPH. REPORT OF A SHED DAMAGED EAST OF GENOA,
            EXACT LOCATION UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. NICKEL
            SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED IN GENOA.

&&

ADP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
834 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             3 W GRESHAM             41.03N 97.47W
06/22/2021  E1.50 INCH       YORK               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL
            REPORTED.

&&

ADP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
839 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     HAIL             2 N BENEDICT            41.04N 97.61W
06/22/2021  E1.75 INCH       YORK               NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

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