Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
111 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

The Rest of Today Through Friday...
Today will be our hottest day of this hot stretch and then a cool
front that is sagging south this afternoon/evening will bring
cooler, if you can call it that, weather for Friday into the
Weekend. Highs on Friday in the Tri-Cities will be around 10
degrees cooler than today with generally lower 90s expected. The
cold front will stall out across north central Kansas on Friday.
North central Kansas zones could still be rather miserably hot on
Friday with light winds right along the front and highs that are
still around 100 degrees.

Most of our forecast models indicate that this will be a dry
frontal passage. The forcing is fairly weak and there is enough
of a mid level warm layer cap, which will make it difficult to
see very many if any thunderstorms. However, can not completely
rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two along or north of the
cold front tonight through Friday. If a thunderstorm can develop
and break through the cap it could be strong given the available
instability, so it will be something to keep an eye on. Will
continue to carry the dry forecast for now into Friday night, but
also can not completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm.

Saturday and Sunday...
Although cooler than today we will still see highs in the 90s. The
front will lift north as a warm front on Saturday and then head
back south as a cool front on Sunday. The upper jet will flatten
out the upper ridge allowing for stronger flow aloft and more
shear. We could see thunderstorms moving in from the west late
Saturday night and then again along the front Sunday night. For
the most part the daytime hours are expected to largely be dry and
hot. Given instability and shear, we can not rule out a few severe
thunderstorms either night.

Monday through Thursday...
The cold front late Sunday will bring some real relief to the heat
with highs only expected to be in the 70s on Monday with a chance
for thunderstorms. We will gradually warm back up as we head
through the week and could be back into the 90s by Thursday. The
period from Tuesday through Thursday will probably be dry for most
areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Ceiling/visibility/precipitation:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility, despite a fair amount
of passing cloud cover mainly in the 10-20K ft. range. Confidence
is also high that the vast majority of the period should be rain
/thunderstorm-free. That being said, recent radar trends over
western NE (and to a lesser extent short term models) are
increasingly suggestive that both KEAR/KGRI could at least end up
in the general vicinity of an area of passing high-based showers/a
few non-severe thunderstorms early in the period, mainly during
the 07-11Z time frame, and as result have introduced a generic
"vicinity thunderstorm" (VCTS) to both terminals. Certainly cannot
"guarantee" a completely dry situation throughout the remainder
of the period, but nothing that carries enough confidence to
warrant formal inclusion.

Surface winds:
Now that a weak front has slipped south of both KGRI/KEAR and is
expected to remain south of the area through the period, winds
will prevail from a generally easterly-to-northeasterly direction
the vast majority of the time. Assuming no convectively-driven
influences, sustained speeds the majority of the time should
average near-to-below 10KT. However, particularly the 15-23Z
(daytime) time frame will likely be a touch breezier, with
sustained speeds commonly 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1002 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
190315-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1002 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight north of
Highway 6. If storms develop, a storm or two may produce small
hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday across most of
south central Nebraska. Some storms could be strong to marginally
severe.

More storms are possible Saturday night across the entire outlook
area, with a marginal risk of severe storms.

More storms are possible Sunday afternoon through Monday, and
again for parts of the area on Wednesday night. It is too soon to
confidently assess the potential for any severe storms during
this time period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
302 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

NEZ039-180845-
Valley NE-
302 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VALLEY COUNTY UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 301 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Comstock, or 17 miles south of Taylor, moving east at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and winds up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ord, Arcadia, Elyria, and rural central and western Valley county.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4171 9877 4140 9876 4140 9921 4168 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 262DEG 34KT 4152 9930

NOAA/NWS/Moritz