Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1246 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

After starting off the day mostly clear for the first time in
days...today is shaping up to be rather active weather day by the
evening hours with a moderate risk for severe weather now in
effect for most of the local area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere...an area of low pressure
is visible on satellite spinning across Idaho early this morning.
Expect this low to progress eastward in zonal flow today...with a
surface low expected to develop to our northwest and emerge into
the plains by early evening. This low will eventually ride a cold
front...currently situated across northern Nebraska...across the
heart of the forecast area during the evening and overnight
hours...while being enhanced by a strong low level jet focused
across central Nebraska. As a result...severe thunderstorms are
expected to impact the local area beginning early this evening and
continuing into the late night hours. Given the set-up...very
strong winds can be expected along the leading edge of the MCS
that is expected to develop...although large hail can also not be
ruled out. Any tornadic development should be favored early in the
period when some isolated supercells are progged to develop
across the high plains by late afternoon in the rich
environment...potentially crossing the local area ahead of the
main MCS...making for a potentially prolonged period of severe
weather. Per SPC...upped the hail potential to baseballs...
although again...think this threat should be more limited to the
late afternoon through early evening hours...with severe winds
continuing to be the most favored mode of severe weather with the
MCS that is expected to cross the local area during the mid to
late evening hours.

Behind this system...expect a few lingering thunderstorms to start
the day Thursday mainly southeast of the tri-cities where the
aforementioned cold front should be located. This front will usher
in noticably cooler air for several days...with highs Thursday
only expected to top out in the 60s...10+ degrees below average
for late May. These below normal temperatures will then linger
through early next week...with multiple chances for precip
expected in a messy...primarily zonal...flow pattern over the
area. With widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches expected
tonight...which could result in some isolated flash
flooding...soils should be fairly saturated when this active
pattern resumes Saturday...which means hydro concerns could become
increasingly worrisome late in the weekend or early next week as
the 7 day qpf from WPC continues to paint significant precipitation
across the local area over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Line of strong/severe thunderstorms pushing through the region
this evening/tonight is the primary concern for this TAF period.
Think the next few hours will overall be quiet, but will be
keeping an eye on the activity currently ongoing over portions of
western KS. Models not handling this activity well, so confidence
in just how things evolve isn't the highest. Models still in
fairly good agreement showing an MCS pushing through mid-late
evening, decided to put in a couple hours of prevailing VRB gusty
winds as it moves through. Storm chances will linger through the
overnight hours, ending closer to 12Z Thurs.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...ADP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
336 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
270845-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
336 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A moderate risk for severe weather is expected across much of the
local area beginning early this evening...and continuing into the
overnight hours. As a result...local residents can expect the
potential for strong thunderstorm wind gusts up to 75 MPH...large
hail to the size of baseballs...and the potential for a few
tornadoes. In addition...widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are possible tonight...which could result in localized
flash flooding. Due to all of the potential hazards...please
remain weather aware today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A small chance for non-severe thunderstorms is possible southeast
of the tri-cities during the daytime hours Thursday.

Beyond Thursday...off-and-on thunderstorm chances return to the
forecast area Saturday evening and continue through at least next
Tuesday. With multiple chances for significant rainfall...more
widespread flooding could become a concern late in the weekend or
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected today and reports of damaging wind
gusts...hail of any size...as well as funnel clouds or tornadoes
would all be appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
341 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSZ018-262115-
Osborne KS-
341 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OSBORNE COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

At 340 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a severe thunderstorm
south of Waldo and Luray, or 12 miles northeast of Russell, moving
north at 30 mph.

Quarter size hail and winds in excess of 60 mph will be possible with
this storm.

People in southern Osborne County should monitor the weather
situation closely.  A warning may be needed if the storm maintains
strength as it moves into the area.  Be ready to seek shelter if
severe weather threatens.

LAT...LON 3923 9895 3925 9858 3913 9860 3913 9891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 166DEG 28KT 3905 9876

Pfannkuch