Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
844 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

The SPC issued a severe thunderstorm watch for our western most
counties (Dawson, Gosper, Furnas). The line of thunderstorms
entering southwestern Nebraska around 8 PM is expected to push
into these counties between 10 and 11 PM CDT this evening. The
environment will be less favorable as the line pushes further east
with time this evening. Instability and wind shear values are
lower across our forecast area and thus these thunderstorms are
moving into a less favorable environment. In addition, we expect
increasing CIN values and increasing atmospheric stability as we
begin to cool after sunset. Thus these thunderstorms should really
begin to fall apart as they enter our forecast area and will
probably not even reach our far eastern zones. The best chance at
seeing a little severe weather (wind/hail) will be across our 3
western most counties between 10 pm and midnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

Clouds scattered out faster than expected this morning and
temperatures have popped up rather quickly, so raised highs a tad
for this afternoon. Current look at radar shows a few pop up
showers in the far southeastern portions of the CWA. Otherwise,
conditions are expected to remain mostly dry through the remainder
of the afternoon. Off to the west a line of thunderstorms is
currently developing along a north-south frontal boundary that is just
east of the Rockies. This line will progress eastward with the
frontal boundary and is expected to begin to impact the western
portions of our CWA after dark tonight. Although some of this
convection could very well be severe, the linear nature of the
system and the abundant moisture means the greater threat is
likely efficient rainers leading to hydro concerns. However, hi-
res models depict the line breaking up across our CWA as the night
goes on. So while these storms could be efficient rainers, there
is the potential that they won't hold together long enough to
cause widespread hydro issues. Overall threat for both severe
weather and hydro concerns decreases throughout the night as
storms dissipate and the sfc front becomes more diffuse.

Better severe chances return tomorrow as a shortwave aloft is kicked
out ahead of the main upper level low as it lifts northward. The
sfc frontal boundary is expected to stall across the area tonight
and remain fairly intact through the day tomorrow. Diurnal heating
will help to drive initial convective development along the
boundary. Deep layer shear looks to be mostly line parallel at
around 30kts in the vicinity of the front. When this is coupled
with the abundant moisture, upscale growth and linear development
is expected. At the same time, convection is expected to develop
along a dry line running approximately from SW Nebraska through
eastern New Mexico. As these cells develop and propagate, they
are also expected to have upscale growth and become more linear in
nature. This means that there could likely be a couple of lines
of storms that move through the area tomorrow. The main threats
would likely be large hail and damaging winds.

Beyond Monday flow aloft transitions to being more zonal but with a
few disturbances expected to slide through. Periodic chances for
precipitation are peppered throughout the remainder of the forecast,
though models appear to have backed off a tad and are now indicating
a couple of dry periods. PWat anomalies continue to be on the high
side for this coming week meaning the storms that do develop are
likely to be rather efficient rain producers. With the amount of
moisture we have seen lately, it would not take a whole lot for some
places to experience flash flooding. This will be a rather important
aspect of the forecast to keep an eye on throughout the week. As far
a temperatures go, we will remain in a fairly typical summer type
pattern, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
across the area through at least Wednesday. Heading into Thursday,
an approaching upper level trof is expected to kick out a lee low
ahead of it at the sfc and is expected to bring a cold front through
the area. This will help to bring highs back down into the 70s for
Thursday and Friday, before temperatures begin to climb again on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

We will be watching a line of thunderstorms that at 630 PM CDT
were located across eastern Colorado. The individual storms will
continue to push northeast while the overall line gradually
slides east with time. This line of storms should weaken by late
this evening as it finally pushes into central Nebraska, but
there could still be a few lingering thunderstorms around the area
during the late night hours as they gradually die out.
Thunderstorms should then redevelop Monday afternoon and a few of
these storms could be severe.

As was the case the last few nights, we expect cloud ceilings to
lower overnight with at least MVFR ceilings and possibly even IFR
ceilings at times early Monday morning. The cloud deck will begin
to lift and scatter out some by later Monday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Wesely
DISCUSSION...Shawkey
AVIATION...Wesely

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1034 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

NEZ060-072-240430-
Dawson NE-Gosper NE-
1034 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GOSPER AND DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL
1130 PM CDT...

At 1034 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near North Platte Airport to 7 miles southeast
of Lake Maloney State Recreation Area to near Curtis to 14 miles
southwest of Stockville to near Culbertson. Movement was northeast at
50 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
  Gothenburg, Cozad and Willow Island.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4104 10022 4105 9961 4090 9959 4068 9961
      4068 9964 4035 9964 4035 10009 4044 10009
      4044 9998 4070 9998 4070 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 233DEG 43KT 4114 10062 4093 10069 4068 10054
4044 10062 4029 10082

Rossi