Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
326 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

Focus is on thunderstorms/severe weather late this evening/tonight...

The pattern aloft featured west/southwest flow ahead of a couple
shortwave troughs translating through the northern/central Rockies
towards the plains. At the surface, low pressure was centered in
southeast CO with a dry line extending to the south, and a cold
front was oriented to the north into far southwest Neb on into
central South Dakota. Moisture advected north into our region in
southerly flow ahead of the front and dps have risen into the upper
50s/around 60F across much of our cwa. The morning low cloud cover
has become more scattered this aftn, allowing for increasing
insolation and destabilization. The latest SPC meso page shows
instability around 1500 j/kg already and models prog instability
around 2000 j/kg by evening before the cold front arrives.

The progressing cold frontal boundary will provide the focus/lift
for showers/thunderstorms as we head through the evening/overnight
hours with latest CAMs showing initial storm development as early as
5 PM but more so 7-8 PM or after. Storms are expected to align
along the boundary while western convection along the front
range/high plains rolls eastward...with a complex of storms
impacting our region into tonight. Conditions will be favorable
for strong to severe storms...bringing a primary damaging wind
threat with 70 mph winds possible along a line of storms...and
storms will also be capable of producing large hail around the
size of ping pong balls. The latest SPC Day 1 outlook has upgraded
portions of north central KS to an enhanced severe weather risk
and the slight risk extends into southwest Neb.

Heavy rainfall is also a concern from the storms given the moisture
availability with dps around 60F and precipitable water values
ranging from 0.75" to 1.25" (which average 1-2 standard deviations
above normal for this time of year). Our current QPF ranges from
roughly a third of an inch on the low end to around 2" on the high
end and as is the nature of convection...there will be winners and
losers on rainfall with some locations seeing little rain and other
areas could exceed the 2" amount. There is still some uncertainty on
where the axis of heavy rain will align and overall trends have
shifted a little farther to the south/southwest.

Also tonight, the cold frontal passage will be a noticeable one.
Aside from the storms, the front will bring an abrupt wind shift to
the north and wind speeds will ramp up behind the boundary. Wind
gusts of 35-40 mph are expected to be common and would not be
surprised if a few locations see gusts near 50 mph.

For the most part, the convection is expected to depart by daybreak
Monday with perhaps some lingering showers/storms in our eastern or
far southern zones. Monday's weather is not looking overly nice with
noticeably cooler temps, strong/gusty north winds and clouds around.

Towards Monday night, an upper trough moving out of the Central
Rockies is expected to bring another round of precip to portions of
the Southern and Central Plains region, mainly to our south across
KS and have carried buffer pops. Temperaturewise, our northwest
zones are forecast to see some chilly overnight low temps Monday
night/Tuesday morning with readings in the low/mid 30s and some
frost development is possible.

Our region generally stays in a cooler pattern under the influence
of an upper trough for much of the upcoming week, with several days
of highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s/40s. Small chances for
precip return around the middle of the workweek and and return again
intermittently for next weekend. Temps looks to moderate to some
degree late in the week/next weekend with high temps closer to the
70 degree mark.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

Low cloud cover which filled in this morning in moisture ahead of
a cold front has begun to scatter this afternoon. Main concern for
terminals is thunderstorm development this evening mainly around
the 00Z time frame and into the overnight hours. Storms are
expected to develop along an advancing cold front to the northwest
of the terminals and increase in coverage heading into tonight as
a complex of showers/storms crosses thru the area. Strong to
severe storms are possible bringing a primary large hail and
damaging wind threat. Heavy rainfall may also accompany the storms
which could lead to localized flooding. While winds will be
variable within storms, the cold frontal passage will bring an
abrupt wind shift to the north tonight and an increase in wind
speeds with gusts at or above 30kts, with fropa generally between
01Z and 03Z for KEAR and KGRI. Winds will remain strong/gusty
through the night and into the day on Monday behind the boundary.
Also even as showers/storms depart, low cloud cover with cigs at
IFR levels are forecast into Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...Fay
AVIATION...Fay

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
536 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

KSZ005-017-022300-
Rooks KS-Phillips KS-
536 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ROOKS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 534 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stockton, or 19 miles south of Phillipsburg, moving northeast at 15
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stockton and Kirwin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3950 9946 3972 9917 3963 9906 3957 9907
      3957 9905 3948 9905 3937 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 230DEG 15KT 3947 9930

Mangels