Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Hastings, NE

254 
WWUS53 KGID 200226
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
926 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

NEC065-073-200245-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-210620T0245Z/
Gosper NE-Furnas NE-
926 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN GOSPER AND FURNAS COUNTIES...

At 925 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Stockville to near Cambridge to 11 miles south of
Wilsonville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 9:03 pm a 68 mph wind gust was reported 
         at McCook Airport.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Bertrand, Beaver City, Holbrook, Edison,
Wilsonville, Hendley and Hollinger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 10020 4035 10010 4044 10009 4044 9998
      4052 9998 4054 9964 4000 9963 4000 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 256DEG 31KT 4047 10045 4021 10018 3996 10003 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Shawkey

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
650 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Most of the daytime hours today have been dry, but recent radar
imagery has show an increase in what at this point is likely
little than sprinkles/showers scattered around...with the main
show still well off to our west. In the upper levels, overall flow
is generally zonal, set up between high pressure spinning over
the Desert SW and and troughing over the far northern
CONUS/Canada. At the surface, a stationary frontal boundary has
been set up roughly across portions of our north-central KS
counties, with easterly winds and dewpoints in the low-mid 50s for
most areas to the north, and more ESE winds and dewpoints into
the 60s to the south. By the time it's all said and done, forecast
high temps look to work out for most, though the cloud cover
could keep a few spots from getting as warm as expected. 3 PM obs
range from low 80s to right around 90.

This evening into tonight...

While there will be the potential for scattered activity to
continue across the area the rest of this afternoon into early
evening, the main push of thunderstorm activity looks to truck
through the CWA mid-evening into the early morning hours Sun.
Thunderstorms have already developed over portions of eastern
CO/WY, even some into the panhandle of NE. This activity, driven
by afternoon heating and an upper level shortwave disturbance
moving out of the Rockies, is shown by models to continue
expanding in coverage this afternoon as it makes its way east.
Models are in pretty good agreement with its eastward path this
evening/tonight with the movement of the shortwave disturbance,
aided by an axis of instability (ML and MU) near/over 2000 j/kg
and increasing lower level lift/convergence along a strengthening
southerly LLJ. Overall, there hasn't been any significant changes
in the models, or with more recent runs of hi-res guidance...with
the better chances of more widespread coverage favoring areas
generally along/south of I-80. Hi-res models aren't in too bad of
agreement with the timing early on, showing it being 02-03Z before
the brunt of activity starts making its way into far western
portions of the CWA. There are some differences with how quickly
it passes through, some showing activity into the Tri-Cities
around 06Z, a few have it closer to HWY 81 already by that point.
While there are some slight timing differences between models,
there is pretty good agreement with things exiting the CWA to the
east by 12Z Sunday.

As far as the threat for severe weather goes, main change was that
the SPC Day 1 outlook has been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk over a
decent chunk of the CWA due to the concern of damaging wind
gusts. Across our CWA, while some spots of larger hail is
possible, the main threat remains with wind gusts near 70 MPH.
Heavy rain will also be possible, but the progressive nature of
the system should keep chances of notable flooding issues low.

Sunday into Monday...

Forecast during the daytime hours Sunday is currently dry, but
confidence in that is not the highest, mainly across the east-
northeastern fringes. One question is with whether activity
tonight actually clears the entire CWA by 12Z...the other is
with a couple models showing the potential for afternoon activity
clipping that area. There isn't great agreement for either
happening between models, so kept PoPs out. The next best chances
for thunderstorms will come Sunday night into Monday. Models are
showing another shortwave disturbance swinging in from the
northwest, with the better chances coming closer to 03-06Z in the
far west, potentially not clearing the area until midday Monday or
so. Along with the additional chances for precip, a reinforcing
cold front is expected to push through the region. The main wind
shift comes through on Sunday, with gusty northerly winds, but
push of cooler temps is most noticeable on Monday. Highs are
currently forecast to reach the 70s! on Monday, and along with
lighter winds and dewpoints in the 40s, Monday is looking to be a
pretty nice day.

Tuesday and on...

Forecast for much of the mid-week period remains dry, thanks to
upper level ridging building back into the Rockies/Plains. Models
show upper flow turning more zonal late week as disturbances break
down the ridge. Forecast is dry Tues-Thur, with periodic PoPs
returning Thur night-Sat. The upper level ridging warms highs back
well into the 90s for mid-week, some readings near 100 won't be
out of the question Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Storms have developed to our west and will continue to track east
through the evening and overnight hours. While an isolated storm
or two will be possible from 20/01-04Z, the main line of storms
is expect to reach KEAR between 20/03-04Z and KGRI about one hour
later. MVFR CIGS, heavy rainfall with MVFR VSBYS along with very
strong thunderstorm wind gusts are all expected. Thereafter...MVFR
to near MVFR CIGS will persist through much of the overnight
hours...with clearing skies by daybreak and gusty northwest winds
during the afternoon hours Sunday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
348 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
201200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
348 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight.

Chances for at least scattered thunderstorms will increase across
the outlook area from west to east between late this afternoon
into this evening, and then gradually diminish across the area
from west to east late tonight into early Sunday morning. Nearly
the entire outlook area is under a Slight or Enhanced Risk of
severe storms, with the main time frame of concern expected to
focus between 8 PM and 2 AM. The primary concern is the
possibility of an organized cluster or line of storms capable of
producing damaging winds up to around 70 MPH, with the secondary
concern being more isolated, spotty instances of hail up to around
ping pong ball size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Sunday night into Monday morning, there are somewhat better
chances for storms in the area, especially within counties south
of Interstate 80. At this time, severe weather is not anticipated,
but a few storms with gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled
out.

Beyond Monday morning, the next low-confidence thunderstorm
chances return to portions of the outlook area on an intermittent
basis between Thursday evening and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any hail or thunderstorm wind
gusts over 50 MPH that might occur late this afternoon into
tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings