Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Hastings, NE

August 20, 2021Mitchell County, Kansas

NWS Hastings, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 20, 2021, 4:54 PM CDT for Mitchell County, Kansas. It was in force for 33 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 20, 2021, 4:54 PM CDT (21:54 UTC)
Expired: Aug 20, 2021, 5:27 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Hastings, NE
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Mitchell County, KS

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 20, 5:10 PM CDT	HAIL 0.7	9 Ne Victor, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 20, 4:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 222 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1273 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -61 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 702 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 148 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 138 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

843 
WUUS53 KGID 202154
SVRGID
KSC123-202245-
/O.NEW.KGID.SV.W.0171.210820T2154Z-210820T2245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Hastings NE
454 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Mitchell County in north central Kansas...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 454 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Victor, or 14
  miles southwest of Beloit, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Beloit, Asherville and Scottsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 9831 3925 9837 3957 9818 3957 9793
      3922 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 214DEG 25KT 3927 9822 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Wesely

3 follow-up statements

605 
WWUS53 KGID 202209
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
509 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

KSC123-202245-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-210820T2245Z/
Mitchell KS-
509 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY...

At 509 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Beloit, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Beloit, Asherville, Simpson and Scottsville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 9820 3932 9826 3957 9808 3957 9793
      3922 9793 3922 9806
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 214DEG 25KT 3936 9814 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Wesely

688 
WWUS53 KGID 202224
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
524 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

KSC123-202245-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-210820T2245Z/
Mitchell KS-
524 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY...

At 523 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Beloit, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Beloit, Asherville, and Scottsville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3934 9813 3941 9816 3955 9806 3957 9793
      3938 9793 3933 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 215DEG 23KT 3943 9807 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Wesely

723 
WWUS53 KGID 202227
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
527 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

KSC123-202237-
/O.CAN.KGID.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-210820T2245Z/
Mitchell KS-
527 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3934 9813 3941 9816 3955 9806 3957 9793
      3938 9793 3933 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 214DEG 25KT 3945 9805 

$$

Wesely

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 20, 2:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 20, 2:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 58 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
256 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

This afternoon and evening...
A strong cold front is quickly tracking southeast across the
forecast area this afternoon. As of 230 pm...this front has
already passed southeast of the Tri-Cities resulting in cooler
temperatures, less humidity, and breezy northwest winds. The cold
front is expected to exit our southeastern counties around 6 pm
this evening. Thunderstorms should form along this cold front
between 5 and 7 pm and quickly develop into a broken line or line
of storms primarily to the east of our forecast area. However,
there is a small chance that the first few thunderstorms that
develop along the front could form across our eastern most
counties before quickly tracking east out of our forecast area.
Severe weather is possible along and ahead of the front with any
thunderstorms that develop. Again this severe weather threat is
primarily east of our forecast area.

Saturday...
This will be a beautiful day between weather systems with dry
conditions and high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80
across southern Nebraska, and 80s over north central Kansas.

Sunday...
The next shortwave upper trough will track across the northern and
central plains during the day on Sunday. This will bring at least
a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms back to the
forecast area. The upper trough will bring with it stronger winds
aloft to create favorable wind shear, while return southerly flow
will allow for increasing low level moisture and increasing
instability. Will need to keep an eye out for several severe
thunderstorms by late afternoon and evening. It will also warm up
with highs back around 90 over southern Nebraska to the mid 90s
over northern Kansas.

Monday...
The 12Z ECMWF brings another weak upper wave through that appears
weaker than the Sunday wave, but could be enough for some isolated
thunderstorms again by Monday afternoon and evening. These slight
chances in our current forecast may need to be expanded and
increased with ECMWF is correct. The main thing is that it will
continue to be hot with highs in the 90s.

Tuesday through Friday...
The overall pattern will be an upper ridge of high pressure to our
south across the southern plains and weak shortwaves tracking
across the northern plains. We could be the battle ground between
the souther moisture and northern waves on a few of these days
primarily Wednesday through Friday when we will see at least some
chance for thunderstorms. Overall it will be a warm period with
highs in the 90s on Tuesday and then mainly 80s across Nebraska
and 90s over northern Kansas Wednesday through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

The cold frontal boundary is working it's way through the region
resulting in a wind shift from southwest to northwest this
afternoon. The wind will also pick up some behind the front with
northwest wind gusts possibly up to 25 mph. It appears that this
will be a dry frontal passage as storms will not fire up along the
front until late afternoon well east of our TAF sites. The low
clouds should eventually scatter out behind the cold front.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 20, 2:43 PM CDT, 2 hours 11 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
243 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

KSZ007-019-NEZ041-048-049-063-064-076-077-086-087-211200-
Jewell-Mitchell-Nance-Merrick-Polk-Hamilton-York-Clay-Fillmore-
Nuckolls-Thayer-
243 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for areas east of Highway 281
in south central Nebraska and north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There remains a low end chance for thunderstorms to redevelop
along a cold front moving through the area this afternoon, but
greatest storm chances will likely remain east of Highway 81. If
storms develop, there is potential for some to be strong to
severe, with hail near the size of quarters, wind gusts near 60
MPH. Any activity that develops will likely clear the outlook
area by mid- evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast Saturday
night through Thursday. Some thunderstorms on could be strong to
severe Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly for portions of south
central Nebraska.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will probably not be needed, but there remains
an outside chance for a strong or severe thunderstorm between 4PM
and 7PM.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085-
211200-
Phillips-Smith-Rooks-Osborne-Valley-Greeley-Sherman-Howard-Dawson-
Buffalo-Hall-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-
243 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for areas along and west of
Highway 281 in south central Nebraska and north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast Saturday
night through Thursday. Some thunderstorms on could be strong to
severe Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly for portions of south
central Nebraska.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon or tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Thies

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 20, 3:58 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
358 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

NEZ086-087-202130-
Thayer NE-Nuckolls NE-
358 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Nuckolls and
northwestern Thayer Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Nora, or 28 miles northwest of Belleville, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Davenport, Ruskin, Oak and Nora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4007 9798 4014 9807 4035 9788 4035 9780
      4019 9761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 229DEG 16KT 4015 9796

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Pfannkuch

Local storm report, Aug 20, 4:27 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
427 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             OAK                     40.24N 97.90W
08/20/2021  E0.75 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KS

Special weather statement, Aug 20, 4:45 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
445 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

KSZ019-202215-
Mitchell KS-
445 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Mitchell
County through 515 PM CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Victor, or 14 miles northwest of Lincoln, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Beloit and Asherville...
  but mainly rural south cenral and central Mitchell County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 9821 3943 9793 3940 9793 3922 9813
      3922 9836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 210DEG 26KT 3923 9826

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Pfannkuch

The office that day

Everything else NWS Hastings, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 20, 4:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GID	Mitchell	30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2021 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.