Special Weather Statement, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
946 AM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Sent an update this morning to adjust the expected chances of
precipitation, based on current radar trends and best model
consensus I could find. Most activity will be on a NW to SE
trajectory. Felt it was best to increase these forecast chances
for thunderstorms following models, erring on the side of more
precip than less. Increased flow from the NW today is also
expected to help clear out some of this haze and smoke, at least
temporarily.

Previous discussion: Exiting showers this morning will leave
behind mostly dry and hot conditions today. That said, isolated
thunderstorms are still possible for a time this afternoon and
evening, but widespread wetting rains are not expected.

By Friday into Saturday, the next cold front will approach as
surface east winds turn to the west and NE Montana experiences an
uptick in thunderstorm coverage. Scattered thunderstorms this time
around may locally produce a wetting rain, but most places that
see a storm will likely see just a few hundredths. Lingering
storms on Saturday with breezy conditions and low afternoon
humidity may also elevate fire concerns for a time if everything
lines up just right, so will continue to monitor that for trends.

Sunday looks to feature more seasonable temperatures before cooler
conditions approach early next week behind the frontal system.
Ensembles still point to at least some potential for unsettled
conditions late in the period, though show increasing spread. Have
included some slight chance to low chance pops for now.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATTERN: The otherwise benign NW flow aloft, could easily have
some small-scale embedded disturbances given the amount of models
showing some scattered precipitation today. Partly cloudy with
hit-and-miss thunderstorms is the best way to classify it.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: Mainly MVFR in haze and smoke, then MVFR to
borderline IFR if an afternoon thunderstorm happens to pass
directly over a TAF site. VFR conditions are expected more after
the storms clear the area later tonight.

WINDS: From the NW at 10 to 15 kts, with thunderstorm wind gusts
up to 30 kts from 21Z to 02Z. After 03Z tonight, expect light and
variable winds, if not calm.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
214 PM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

MTZ016-060-042045-
Southwest Phillips MT-Central and Southeast Phillips MT-
214 PM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Phillips County through 245 PM MDT...

At 214 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Zortman, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Phillips County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4782 10855 4797 10840 4785 10799 4762 10820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 302DEG 8KT 4786 10839

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NWS Glasgow