Special Weather Statement, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
315 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...Isolated severe threat today and high fire danger on Friday for
NE Montana...

There are several short term forecast challenges up for
consideration. First, radar and observations show isolated
thunderstorms across portions of NE Montana early this morning,
some putting down wetting rains. Expect coverage to grow into the
afternoon and tonight as a shortwave and surface cold front
approaches when a couple storms may be severe. Main concerns
continue to surround downdraft wind gusts as well as wildfire risk
from these winds and peripheral lightning in the presence of dry
fuels.

Additionally, with temperatures will into the 90s if not low 100s
for much of NE Montana, Excessive Heat Warning will remain in
effect. Look for a break from the excessive heat on Friday
although temperatures will still be above normal. Main concern
here is breezy westerly flow in the presence of very dry fuels and
relative humidity dropping to around 10 percent for western and
central portions of the CWA. Further east, humidity will still
likely be below 20 percent. Thus, confidence is growing on a high
fire danger day here and the Fire Weather Watch remains in effect.
Secondarily, winds may be strong enough for a few hours to come
close to Lake Wind Advisory criteria in the afternoon or evening.

Longer term ensembles point to the upper ridge pattern becoming
established once more over the western U.S. for the upcoming
weekend and early next week, which would bring about a return to
excessive heat concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail though haze may temporarily lead to a
reduction in visibility. In addition, scattered thunderstorms
today and tonight may result in MVFR to IFR ceilings and
visibilities at times as well as gusty and shifting winds. A few
storms may also be severe this afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Look for relative humidity as low as 9 percent on Friday afternoon
with west to northwest winds at 10 to 20 kts with occasional
higher gusts in the presence of dry fuels. These conditions will
lead to high fire danger and a Fire Weather Watch remains in
effect for Fire Weather Zones 120, 122, and 134-137 from Noon
until 9 PM.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central
and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Dawson...
Eastern Roosevelt...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum...Prairie...
Richland...Southwest Phillips...Western Roosevelt...Wibaux.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for MTZ120-122-134>137.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

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