Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
716 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
/Tonight Through Friday Evening/

Basically more of the same. Per latest radar trends and where
we're at with a few more hours of daylight, I kept most areas
10-20% S of Hwy 380 across N TX, but did tweak up Central TX up to
30% through sunset. Loss of heating should help skies become
mostly clear, with some scattered cumulus possibly continuing
across our far southern counties. Just minor sky cover and wind
tweaks through Friday/Friday evening with the Heat Advisory
continuing through 7 pm Friday for the same areas, ie...east of
I-45 in Central Texas and along/east of I-35/35W, then along/north
of I-20 in North Texas. More isolated, afternoon and early
evening pop up showers and storms Friday that should diminish
quickly by sunset and after.

05/

Previous Discussion:
/Rest of Today through Friday/

A mid-level ridge remains in place to our north, but a persistent
east/southeast flow will continue to bring moisture into our area
through the end of the week. In response, more diurnally driven
showers and storms will develop. The best coverage is expected to
remain along/south of I-20, but isolated storms will be possible
across the entire region. While the wind threat is a little lower
today given that temperature and dewpoint spread won't be as high
as they were the last couple of days, we can't rule out isolated
strong wind gusts. Any showers/storms will diminish late in the
evening leaving us with a quiet but warm night.

Expect another hot and humid day on Friday. Highs will be in the
mid-upper 90s, but the heat indices are forecast to reach or
exceed 105 degrees across many locations in North and East TX. The
Heat Advisory will be extended for Friday afternoon. Despite the
upper level ridge slowly shifting south on Friday, more isolated
to scattered showers and storms will still be possible in the
afternoon and early evening.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 315 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021/
/Friday night through Thursday/

A high amplitude ridge from Alberta to the Gulf of Mexico will
stay in place through the weekend, maintaining hot and generally
rain free weather. Since low level moisture will remain abundant,
the combination of heat (highs mid 90s to around 100) and
humidity will result in triple digit heat index values. Therefore,
the current Heat Advisory will likely need to be extended through
the weekend. Subsidence on Friday night and Saturday will likely
limit convection but there will still be a slim chance for
isolated storms during the heat of the day Saturday, especially
across the southeast zones. Any storm that does develop will have
a potential to produce a microburst. Better storm chances will
arrive Sunday afternoon when an upper trough deepens across the
eastern half of the country and a cold front approaches from the
north. Although the front may not cross the Red River until Sunday
night, outflow boundaries from Oklahoma convection will have a
chance of reaching North Texas in the afternoon, warranting slight
chance to chance PoPs. The front will slide slowly through North
Texas Sunday night and Monday, reaching Central Texas around
Tuesday. The arrival of the front will bring more clouds, cooler
temperatures (highs in the 90s, lows in the lower and middle 70s)
and scattered showers and thunderstorms. As with any summertime
cold front, forecasting exactly how far south it will travel is
difficult since mesoscale processes play such a pivotal role.
However, with the forecast area remaining on the western periphery
of a long wave trough and the front washing out somewhere in the
CWA, low chance PoPs will be maintained Wednesday and Thursday.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
Update:
/00z TAFs/

Concerns mainly through 02z-03z this evening for VCSH/VCTS
potential, especially KACT.

Outside of eastern Central TX, showers and tstorms remain very
isolated. For now, VCSH should work across the D10 and DFW
terminals through 02z, but am watching isolated TS approach KTKI,
so will adjust for a brief VCTS for the D10 if necessary.
Otherwise, VFR with SCT060-120 becoming SKC-SCT250 after
nightfall.

KACT a little trickier if eastern Central TX tstorms moving W can
hold on. Started with VCSH and added a brief 1-2 hour window for
VCTS by 02z. If activity rapidly dissipates, a quick AMD to remove
VCTS will need to be done. Otherwise, same D10 beyond nightfall
tonight.

With convective activity being even more sparse on Friday beyond
18z and confidence too low, I elected to refrain from adding a
forecast for VCSH/VCTS and just be a wait n'see approach.
Otherwise, E/SE winds 9-12 kts with a few gusts to 15 kts, with
become SE 5-10 kts, before become S by 12z Friday.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  99  80 100  81 /  10  10   0   5   5
Waco                77  97  77  96  78 /  20  20   5  10   0
Paris               76  97  77  97  78 /   0   5   0   5   5
Denton              76  99  77  99  77 /  10  10   0   5   5
McKinney            77  99  77  98  78 /  10   5   0   5   5
Dallas              81 100  82  99  82 /  10  10   0   5   5
Terrell             76  97  77  96  77 /  10  10   0   5   0
Corsicana           77  97  77  97  78 /  10  10   5   5   0
Temple              75  96  74  96  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
Mineral Wells       74  96  74  97  76 /  20  10   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-135-148.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ092>095-
103>107-118>123-135-148.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
717 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-310030-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
717 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
A few storms will continue this evening through around sunset. Gusty
winds and lightning will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
A few thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon in Central
Texas. Lightning and gusty winds will continue to be the primary
hazards.

The heat index will reach or exceed 105 in many areas Friday through
Sunday.

Thunderstorm chances will return on Sunday and continue into Monday
and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
551 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

TXZ147-148-162-292315-
Anderson TX-Leon TX-Freestone TX-
551 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FREESTONE...
NORTHEASTERN LEON AND SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

At 550 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northeast of Buffalo, or 19 miles southwest of Palestine,
moving west at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Centerville, Fairfield Lake State Park and Oakwood.

LAT...LON 3152 9571 3150 9574 3137 9584 3121 9602
      3185 9611 3187 9583 3161 9572
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 090DEG 15KT 3153 9586

Prater

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
615 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

TXZ162-292345-
Leon TX-
615 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LEON COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM
CDT...

At 615 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Centerville, or 20 miles northwest of Austonio, moving west at 10
mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Centerville.

LAT...LON 3135 9586 3118 9589 3122 9613 3144 9611
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 101DEG 10KT 3130 9595

Prater

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
738 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

TXZ162-175-300115-
Robertson TX-Leon TX-
738 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ROBERTSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN LEON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 737 PM CDT, Doppler radar was a cluster of strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from 17 miles northeast of Franklin to 12
miles northwest of Madisonville. Movement was northwest at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

 Locations impacted include...
Marquez.

LAT...LON 3092 9636 3124 9655 3132 9640 3134 9623
      3108 9599 3107 9602 3107 9605 3100 9617
      3098 9623
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 118DEG 6KT 3124 9631 3106 9609

Hernandez