Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
255 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/
/This Afternoon through Tuesday Night/

Visible satellite imagery shows an expansive cumulus field across
North Texas this afternoon and visual observation confirms quite a
bit more vertical extent than yesterday. Low level convergence
between light easterly flow and northwest flow behind an outflow
boundary is currently maximized right over the Metroplex. There
isn't much in the way of synoptic forcing for ascent, but with
temperatures now in the mid/upper 90s and little inhibition
remaining, the mesoscale forcing in the vicinity of the Metroplex
may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms to develop. The
environment is weakly sheared but MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg would
support isolated damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. We've
included some 20% PoPs through the afternoon to account for this
activity.

Otherwise, the other story is the heat and humidity. Little wind
and vertical mixing of the boundary layer has resulted in another
day of mid/upper 70s dewpoints across the region and heat indices
are running in the 105-108 degree range in many locations. We've
expanded the Heat Advisory back west to the I-35 corridor and
north to include the Metroplex through this evening. Highs will
again top out in the mid/upper 90s this afternoon.

Rain chances should diminish completely after dark with a warm
night expected. Lows will drop into the lower 70s in rural areas,
but remain in the mid/upper 70s in the cities. Another warm day is
expected tomorrow, however, it does appear that less boundary
layer moisture depth will be present which should hopefully result
in some better mixing and lower afternoon dewpoints.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Onward/

The well amplified upper ridge across the Four Corners region
will continue to influence the sensible weather across North and
Central Texas. Although the main upper level circulation will
remain well west of our region, upper heights are expected to
increase slightly the latter half of the work week. With
increasing heights and no major sources of lift moving across the
region, precipitation is not expected anywhere across the region
through Friday. Highs are likely to climb into the mid to upper
90s each day, likely pushing heat index values to or slightly
above the triple digit mark.

As we move into the weekend, a tropical disturbance is expected
to become organized and migrate northward into far southeast Texas
or Louisiana. There remains too much uncertainty at this time
regarding the evolution of this system, but it's possible a few
showers or storms impact Central Texas east of I-35 this weekend.
The rest of the region will remain dry, with continued hot
temperatures in place.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR prevails across the region this afternoon although an
expansive CU field has developed across North Texas and a few
echoes have shown up on radar just southwest of DAL over the last
half hour. We've included a VCTS for a few hours at all Metroplex
sites for isolated TS activity. Storm motions will be slow so
direct impact at airports may not occur, but could be some impacts
to departures/arrivals. Otherwise, light easterly flow will
prevail through tonight with VFR expected outside of any
convective activity this evening.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  97  75  97  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                73  95  72  95  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
Paris               71  93  71  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              71  95  71  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            72  95  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              77  97  75  97  76 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             74  96  72  94  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  95  73  95  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  95  71  95  71 /  10   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       71  95  71  95  70 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ118>122-133>135-
145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
303 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151230-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
303 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Storms are ongoing south of I-20 this afternoon. Gusty winds and
frequent lightning would be the main threats. In addition, areas that
don't experience precipitation will see heat index values
reach/exceed 105 prior to sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A few storms will be possible across Central and Southeast Texas
Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Severe weather is not expected but
lightning and gusty winds will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
255 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

TXZ118-142015-
Tarrant TX-
255 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM CDT...

At 255 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crowley. This storm was nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Benbrook and Crowley.

LAT...LON 3265 9736 3255 9735 3256 9754 3268 9754
      3268 9743
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 092DEG 1KT 3257 9745

Stalley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
314 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

TXZ118-133-142045-
Tarrant TX-Johnson TX-
314 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 314 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crowley. This storm was nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Fort Worth, Burleson, Cleburne, Benbrook, Crowley, Joshua, Godley and
Cross Timber.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 9734 3242 9733 3242 9755 3266 9755
      3266 9740
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 004DEG 2KT 3255 9745

Stalley