Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
723 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Interesting evening setting up as ingredients come together for
severe thunderstorms. The dryline stalled just west of the
I-35/35W corridor late this afternoon. The cold front is now
catching up to it and will move southeast across the region
overnight. The 18Z sounding showed a stout cap in place but the
00Z FWD sounding shows that the cap has eroded completely with
nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates through a very deep layer. Very
favorable instability and shear will allow any storm that develop
to become severe quickly with a high likelihood of large hail and
damaging downburst wind. The backed surface winds and fairly low
LCLs (just above 1000 meters) may also support a few tornadoes.

Will only make cosmetic adjustments to the previous forecast.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday/

Uncertainty remains high for this afternoon's challenging
forecast. The special 18Z sounding still indicates the presence of
a stout cap with impressively steep lapse rates aloft. There's
still a chance for severe weather to unfold this afternoon, though
the occurrence is highly conditional on several key factors.

High-resolution guidance continues to erode the cap near 3 to 4
pm this afternoon along the I-35 corridor. This seems unlikely
given the strength of the cap; However, an approaching shortwave
and dryline may provide just enough lift to erode the stable
layer. We'll have to watch things closely this afternoon, but
hopefully another special sounding at 4 pm will provide additional
insight.

The dryline should approach the I-35 corridor late this
afternoon. If the cap does erode, convection may have trouble
developing, as there's some evidence that mid-levels will be
rather dry. However, if forcing from both the dryline and
shortwave are able to overcome this and storms manage to develop,
severe weather would result given the highly unstable and deeply
sheared environment. With 0-6 km shear vectors nearly
perpendicular to the dryline, discrete supercells would be the
most likely storm mode this afternoon. Very large hail would be
the greatest concern, with damaging winds and an isolated tornado
possible as well. Keep in mind, the vast majority of the area will
not see severe weather, if storms are able to develop.
Nonetheless, everyone near and east of I-35 should keep a very
close eye on the weather late this afternoon and this evening.
While this solution is highly conditional, it's critical to be
prepared in the event that it occurs.

There is greater confidence in a line of severe thunderstorms
developing along an approaching cold front. The front will cross
our northwestern border early this evening, gradually overtaking
the dryline that will still be draped near/along the I-35
corridor. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with these
storms, although an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. The
west/southwest extent of these storms into North Texas is still in
question. However, severe weather will be possible anywhere along
the line of storms tonight, with the greatest chances of severe
weather in our northeastern and eastern counties.

After midnight tonight, showers and thunderstorms will exit to our
east and southeast as the cold front sweeps through the area.
Windy conditions are expected for a few hours behind the front,
with sustained wind speeds near 20 to 25 mph and gusts near 30 to
35 mph.

Dry and sunny weather is expected on Saturday with breezy
north/northwest winds continuing throughout the day. Temperatures
should warm into the low to middle 70s across the area. Dry
conditions near and west of I-35 combined with the breezy winds
will result in an elevated threat for grass fires Saturday
afternoon.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 214 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021/
/Saturday night through Next Friday/

The rest of the weekend looks mild and dry across North and Central
TX. A surface high pressure will move over the region Saturday night
shifting the winds to the south by Sunday morning. Winds are
expected to increase during the day on Sunday ahead of our next cold
front. Highs will be in the 80s with a few low 90s across the far
western/southwestern zones due to the influence of a southwest
flow. Elevated fire conditions will exist again on Sunday west of
I-35 due to the breezy winds, warm and dry conditions.

The next cold front is set to arrive on Monday, but the
precipitation coverage is expected to remain isolated/scattered due
to the limited moisture and capped environment. Rain chances will
increase Monday night and Tuesday as the first of several
disturbances travels from the west. Warm advection regime will bring
isentropic lift that along with the available moisture will
result in better rain chances areawide. We will remain in this
relatively (and much needed) wet pattern through most of the week
with on-and-off precipitation chances at least through Friday and
perhaps into next weekend.

Otherwise, temperatures will remain on the cool side Tuesday through
Friday. We're anticipating highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal due to
the clouds, daily rain chances, and northerly flow at the surface.
Highs will be in 60s and 70s with overnight lows in the 50s to low
60s.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

The primary aviation weather concern will be storms this evening
with the best chances just ahead of the cold front. Current radar
trends keep the majority of storms just south of the Metroplex TAF
sites, therefore, we will carry VCTS at GKY, DFW and DAL through
about 3Z until the cold front moves to the east. After that,
expect a clearing sky with VFR through Saturday afternoon.

A south to southeast wind at or below 13 knots to start the TAF
cycle will turn to the northwest around 02Z and more northerly
after 03Z at speeds between 15 and 18 knots with some gusts around
28 knots. Wind speeds will decrease slightly on Saturday while
remaining northerly.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  75  52  85  62 /  30   0   0   0   0
Waco                53  76  49  86  62 /  20   0   0   0   0
Paris               48  69  46  80  56 /  70   0   0   0   5
Denton              49  73  46  85  57 /  20   0   0   0   5
McKinney            49  72  48  83  57 /  30   0   0   0   5
Dallas              52  76  54  86  63 /  30   0   0   0   0
Terrell             50  73  48  83  59 /  40   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           52  74  50  84  60 /  30   0   0   0   0
Temple              54  77  49  87  61 /  20   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       49  76  47  88  58 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
249 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
249 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a threat for severe weather today mainly along and east of I-
 35. A dryline will approach I-35 by mid afternoon. If any storms can
develop along the dryline, they will be severe with large hail and
damaging winds. An isolated tornado will also be possible.

Later tonight, a line of severe thunderstorms along a cold front will
move out of southeast Oklahoma and into parts of North Texas. Areas
northeast of the Metroplex from Greenville to Paris and across our
eastern areas from Canton to Athens may see some of these storms
tonight. Damaging winds would be the main threat during this time.

This afternoon, there will be a high grass fire threat behind a
dryline west of I-35 where temperatures will climb into the mid 90s
with gusty winds and low humidity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Breezy and dry conditions Saturday and Sunday will lead to elevated
fire weather concerns west of I-35.

Storm chances return Monday night and linger through much of the
week. The severe weather threat appears very low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon east of I-35.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
940 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ESE DENISON           33.72N 96.46W
04/09/2021                   GRAYSON            TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
947 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     HAIL             11 WNW PALESTINE        31.83N 95.81W
04/09/2021  E1.25 INCH       ANDERSON           TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF DOLLAR (1.25 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1017 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 PM     HAIL             2 SW PALESTINE          31.73N 95.67W
04/09/2021  E1.00 INCH       ANDERSON           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1018 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     HAIL             1 WSW PALESTINE         31.75N 95.67W
04/09/2021  E0.70 INCH       ANDERSON           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1033 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

TXZ105>107-100415-
Hunt TX-Hopkins TX-Delta TX-
1033 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HUNT...HOPKINS AND DELTA COUNTIES
UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1033 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms from near Celeste to Pecan Gap, moving southeast at 45
mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Sulphur Springs, Commerce, Cooper, Wolfe City, Caddo
Mills, Celeste, Cumby, Como, Campbell, Cooper Lake Park South
Sulphur, Cooper Lake Park Doctors Creek, Josephine, Lone Oak, Tira,
Pecan Gap and Neylandville.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3298 9629 3335 9629 3341 9586 3346 9586
      3346 9583 3350 9577 3347 9568 3349 9562
      3347 9559 3348 9556 3345 9553 3345 9548
      3339 9538 3338 9531 3297 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 297DEG 41KT 3332 9596

Dunn