Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1215 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tonight/

A cold front currently extends along a Bonham to DFW to Hamilton
line, with the strongest thunderstorms along and south of the
boundary. The first round of convection remains across East and
Northeast Texas, while the next round of showers and thunderstorms
is generally located west of the I-35 corridor and south of
US-81. This activity should become more widespread over the next
few hours and move from across the region. High res guidance
indicates the environment is favorable for a hail/damaging wind
threat, with CAPE values near 1000 J/kg, steep lapse rates upwards
of 7 C/km, and large scale lift as a shortwave approaches. In
combination with the presence of high moisture content, a
localized flash flood threat cannot be ruled out as thunderstorms
move slowly along an axis from southwest to northeast.

By Thursday morning, widespread showers and thunderstorms will be
located generally along and east of the I-35 corridor. As the
shortwave departs the region, precipitation will come to an end
from west to east. Cloud cover will also clear as drier air
filters in. Abundant sunshine and westerly winds around 10 to 15
mph will yield highs in the upper 60s along the Red River and low
70s across Central Texas.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Following the departure of tonight/tomorrow's storm system, fair
weather will prevail to end the week. Surface flow will quickly
turn back around to the southeast on Friday, allowing temperatures
to bounce back into the upper 70s and low 80s beneath mostly sunny
skies. By Saturday, sufficient moisture return should support
warm advection showers and a few storms mainly across parts of
Central and East Texas as a weak upper shortwave moves overhead.
Coverage of storms may increase some late Saturday into early
Sunday as frontal zone pushes southward through the forecast area.
While this setup does not appear very favorable for severe
weather at this time, the overall parameter space could support
some strong storms simply given the degree of instability and
shear progged to be in place.

On Sunday, a stronger upper low is expected to move across the area,
although most of the CWA may be positioned within the post-frontal
airmass at the surface, leading to a favorable overrunning regime
and more widespread rain heading into Monday. Another
progressive disturbance or two could keep rain chances in the
forecast through at least next Wednesday, although the frequent
frontal intrusions and lack of significant moisture/instability
recovery may limit the overall severe weather threat through the
extended portion of the forecast. Some drier weather may return
for the second half of next week.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings prevail across the region, but intermittent periods
of VFR may occur through the early morning hours. A cold front is
currently moving across the Metroplex, resulting in a northerly to
northwesterly wind shift. For the Metroplex terminals, ceilings
around 1500-2500 feet are expected to prevail through the mid
morning hours on Thursday. Across Waco, it is possible
ceilings/visibility may drop to IFR overnight. VFR ceilings should
return around 13-14Z at Waco and closer to 16-17Z across the
Metroplex terminals.

A brief lull in precipitation is expected, but showers and
thunderstorms are already developing south and west of the region.
Scattered thunderstorms should approach the Metroplex terminals
within the next hour or so and may begin to skirt the Waco
terminal around 7Z. Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue through Thursday morning as a shortwave moves
across the region.

VFR should prevail through the remainder of the forecast period
with westerly winds around 10 to 15 knots.

Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  69  50  79  57 /  90  60   0   0   0
Waco                54  71  48  79  59 /  90  40   0   0   0
Paris               54  66  45  74  54 /  90  80   0   0   0
Denton              48  68  45  79  53 /  90  50   0   0   0
McKinney            52  68  46  77  54 /  90  70   0   0   0
Dallas              54  70  52  80  59 /  90  60   0   0   0
Terrell             53  68  46  77  56 /  90  60   0   0   0
Corsicana           55  70  50  79  59 /  90  50   0   0   0
Temple              53  73  47  81  58 /  90  30   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  68  46  81  53 /  80  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
222 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251130-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
222 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across North and Central Texas. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the primary threats, however, a few tornadoes can't be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Low thunderstorm chances return to the forecast east of I-35 on
Saturday afternoon and night and across much of the region Sunday
night and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon and tonight
for much of North and Central Texas.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1111 PM CDT WED MAR 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HAIL             1 E MCKINNEY            33.20N 96.64W
03/24/2021  E0.75 INCH       COLLIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1141 PM CDT WED MAR 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 PM     HAIL             2 S KAUFMAN             32.56N 96.31W
03/24/2021  E1.50 INCH       KAUFMAN            TX   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1148 PM CDT WED MAR 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     HAIL             6 ESE KAUFMAN           32.56N 96.21W
03/24/2021  E1.00 INCH       KAUFMAN            TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1212 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

TXZ091-101-102-250600-
Montague TX-Wise TX-Jack TX-
1212 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTAGUE...NORTHWESTERN WISE AND
NORTHEASTERN JACK COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1210 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Chico, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Accumulating half inch to penny size hail is possible with this
storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Bowie, Nocona, St. Jo, Chico and Sunset.

LAT...LON 3395 9759 3392 9760 3390 9758 3390 9755
      3392 9751 3391 9748 3372 9748 3325 9783
      3333 9802 3389 9779 3390 9778 3392 9778
      3391 9776 3394 9776 3394 9773 3399 9769
      3399 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 0510Z 207DEG 40KT 3337 9788

Bonnette

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1217 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 PM     HAIL             2 N GRAYS PRAIRIE       32.50N 96.34W
03/24/2021  E1.00 INCH       KAUFMAN            TX   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT...QUARTER SIZE HAIL VIA MPING
            NORTH OF GRAYS PRAIRIE. TIME ESTIMATED VIA
            RADAR.

&&

BAIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

TXZ122-123-250630-
Van Zandt TX-Rains TX-
1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VAN ZANDT AND
SOUTHEASTERN RAINS COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1241 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Edgewood, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm. Hail may also
accumulate on area roadways and make travel hazardous after the
storm has passed.

 Locations impacted include...
Edgewood, Emory and Fruitvale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for north central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3262 9593 3280 9595 3296 9567 3277 9564
      3272 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0541Z 238DEG 20KT 3274 9587

Bonnette