Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
736 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday/

The surface low pressure responsible for this afternoon/evening's
convection is located over southwestern Oklahoma, with a broken
line of showers and thunderstorms extending along and west of a
Sherman to Rockwall to Lampasas line at the time of this writing.
The presence of marginal instability and a modestly sheared
environment would support a potential for severe hail (upwards of
1 inch) and damaging wind gusts with any stronger thunderstorms. As
a result, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for
portions of North and Central Texas through midnight tonight.

Based on the latest trends and high res guidance, this activity
should be east of the I-35 corridor after 9-10PM and exit most of
the region after 1-2AM. The passage of a Pacific cold front,
associated with the surface low, will clear cloud cover from west
to east and result in surface winds becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Wind speeds will be around 10-15 MPH behind the
front and persist through much of the day on Tuesday.
Temperatures will not be affected much by the passage of the
front, but the humidity should be lower as drier air filters in.
Expect abundant sunshine and slightly above-normal high
temperatures, mostly in the 70s, across the region Tuesday
afternoon.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 240 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021/
/Tuesday Night and Beyond/

The next storm system will start off Tuesday night swinging
through the Four-Corners area before heading east into the Plains
on Wednesday. North and Central Texas should still be situated
largely in the cool sector as tonight's cold front remains
stretched across Southeast Texas and Louisiana, which should
mitigate the overall severe weather threat as the strongest
forcing for ascent arrives. One exception may be across areas
south of I-20 and east of I-35, a region into which the surface
front is progged to retreat sometime Wednesday afternoon or
evening. This may allow for a few surface-based storms which could
become strong to severe. Thunderstorms should remain elevated and
likely sub- severe across the rest of the region, though a few
strong storms may still occur.

As far as the timing is concerned, an initial round of convection
is expected Wednesday afternoon as a lead disturbance arrives,
with a second round Wednesday night into Thursday with the primary
disturbance swinging east through the region. Rainfall totals are
a bit uncertain, but basin-average values of half an inch to an
inch look most likely with some isolated higher totals in training
showers and storms.

The system and associated precipitation will exit to the east late
Thursday, followed by dry and seasonable weather for the end of
the workweek. Another shortwave will traverse the Plains on
Saturday, sending another front south through the region. This
system appears moisture-starved at this time and the front should
pass through precipitation-free. The result should be continued
nice weather for the weekend into early next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Ongoing convection will continue to impact the Metroplex terminals
through 2-3Z, and reach Waco closer to 1-2Z. Reductions in
visibility to 3-4 miles and variable wind gusts near or upwards
of 35 knots cannot be ruled out as the activity moves from west to
east. Thunderstorms should be just east of the Metroplex terminals
after 3Z, but there may be lingering showers through 4-5Z. The
passage of a Pacific front will aid in clearing cloud cover
tonight and result in breezy westerly winds. VFR will prevail by
6-7Z across all terminals and continue through the forecast
period. Westerly to southwesterly winds around 10-15 knots are
possible on Tuesday before decreasing in speed and becoming
southerly by Tuesday evening.

Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  74  51  75  49 /  90   0   0  40  40
Waco                51  76  50  75  50 /  90   0   0  50  50
Paris               52  70  47  75  50 / 100   5   0  30  60
Denton              47  73  46  74  45 / 100   0   0  30  40
McKinney            49  72  47  75  48 / 100   0   0  30  40
Dallas              51  75  53  76  51 /  90   0   0  40  40
Terrell             51  73  49  75  50 / 100   0   0  40  50
Corsicana           54  75  52  76  53 /  90   0   0  50  50
Temple              51  78  51  76  50 /  80   0   0  50  50
Mineral Wells       45  73  47  74  45 /  70   0   5  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1137 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-240445-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1137 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to move east and
southeast through the predawn hours. Some storms may become strong
or severe with hail and damaging winds as the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Another round of thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday. A
strong or marginally severe storm will be possible across the
southeast late Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation is possible east of I-35 through 2 AM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1011 PM CDT MON MAR 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE PLANO             33.03N 96.70W
03/22/2021                   COLLIN             TX   PUBLIC

            TREE BRANCH 6 INCHES IN DIAMETER OF A
            HEALTHY TREE COMPLETELY SNAPPED. LOCATION IS
            AT THE INTERSECTION OF PARK BLVD AND AVENUE
            K IN PLANO.

&&

PRATER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1024 PM CDT MON MAR 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     HAIL             3 SSW ABBOTT            31.84N 97.09W
03/22/2021  E1.00 INCH       HILL               TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL BETWEEN WEST AND ABBOTT.

&&

PRATER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1025 PM CDT MON MAR 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 PM     HAIL             CADDO MILLS             33.07N 96.23W
03/22/2021  E1.00 INCH       HUNT               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PRATER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1043 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

TXZ105-107-119>123-134-135-230415-
Ellis TX-Kaufman TX-Van Zandt TX-Hunt TX-Hopkins TX-Rockwall TX-
Rains TX-Henderson TX-Dallas TX-
1043 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ROCKWALL...SOUTHERN
HUNT...KAUFMAN...WESTERN VAN ZANDT...NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON...
SOUTHWESTERN HOPKINS...RAINS...NORTHEASTERN ELLIS AND SOUTHEASTERN
DALLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1043 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Caddo Mills to near Ennis. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

 Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Ennis, Terrell, Sulphur Springs, Seagoville, Forney,
Kaufman, Gun Barrel City, Canton, Wills Point, Royse City, Fate,
Mabank, Crandall, Tool, Palmer, Combine, West Tawakoni, Talty and
Seven Points.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central and north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3231 9604 3231 9634 3233 9638 3231 9643
      3230 9677 3298 9634 3298 9630 3310 9627
      3318 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 250DEG 33KT 3302 9616 3239 9662

Barnes

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1056 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

TXZ094-095-105>107-230445-
Hunt TX-Hopkins TX-Lamar TX-Delta TX-Fannin TX-
1056 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HUNT...HOPKINS...
LAMAR...DELTA AND SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1055 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from Honey Grove to Klondike to Cumby moving
east at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

 Locations impacted include...
Paris, Sulphur Springs, Commerce, Cooper, Honey Grove, Blossom,
Cumby, Como, Deport, Cooper Lake Park South Sulphur, Cooper Lake Park
Doctors Creek, Roxton, Ladonia, Tira, Pecan Gap, Windom, Toco and Sun
Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3298 9593 3323 9591 3361 9601 3388 9531
      3303 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 249DEG 34KT 3350 9590 3337 9583 3319 9580 3305
9587

Bonnette

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1157 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

TXZ147-160>162-175-230545-
Robertson TX-Falls TX-Limestone TX-Leon TX-Freestone TX-
1157 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ROBERTSON...SOUTH
CENTRAL FREESTONE...WEST CENTRAL LEON...SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE AND
EAST CENTRAL FALLS COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1156 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Kosse, moving east northeast at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Thornton and Kosse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
central Texas.

LAT...LON 3120 9666 3137 9672 3154 9623 3128 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0456Z 253DEG 33KT 3131 9661

Bonnette