Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Fort Worth, TX

111 
WWUS54 KFWD 151937
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
237 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

TXC281-333-151946-
/O.CAN.KFWD.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-210415T2015Z/
Lampasas TX-Mills TX-
237 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LAMPASAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN MILLS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits. Therefore the warning has been cancelled. However small hail
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3162 9842 3142 9827 3146 9818 3117 9798
      3122 9857 3126 9858 3127 9863 3129 9860
      3133 9859 3132 9860 3131 9863 3137 9865
      3134 9870 3141 9870 3140 9872 3143 9873
      3138 9876 3141 9878 3141 9881 3142 9881
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 264DEG 34KT 3134 9853 

$$

Barnes

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
612 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Radars are clear across the region this morning with widespread
low cloud cover throughout North Texas. Clouds will linger
throughout the day today. Showers and thunderstorms should begin
to increase in coverage to the west of the area over the next
several hours. There are already indications of warm advection
activity increasing in the Big Bend area per latest
radar/satellite trends. This activity should quickly expand in
areal coverage later this morning and affect areas mainly west of
I-35 through midday before spreading across much of North Texas
this afternoon. The initial impulse associated with this activity
will move east this evening and we'll likely see a lull in
precipitation coverage through midnight before another uptick late
tonight into Friday. The current forecast handles this well and
only made minor tweaks to the PoP forecast through tonight.

The overall severe threat looks low through Friday, although a few
strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon mainly
across our southwest counties. These will have ample elevated
instability/shear to produce large hail, but this threat should be
greater across parts of the Big Country and Hill Country through
late afternoon.

Dunn

&&

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Friday/

Another night of scattered showers and thunderstorms is in
progress with tonight's activity confined generally to areas north
of I-20. Modest 900-700 mb warm advection and weak mid level
forcing for ascent are the main drivers of tonight's convection.
There is sufficient elevated instability for the strongest storms
to produce dime size hail and frequent lightning. The warm
advection is forecast to shift eastward over the next few hours
with a gradual decrease in activity through early Thursday
morning.

We should be in a lull in the precipitation for most of the
morning across the region with activity expected to increase later
this morning across West Texas. An upstream shortwave trough
moving through Utah will induce surface cyclogenesis across
southeastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle later today
resulting in strengthening southerly flow and warm moist
advection. An increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms to
our west will eventually spread into our western counties by
midday. With the stationary frontal boundary still to our south,
this activity should mainly be elevated, but within an area of
steepening lapse rates supporting mainly a hail threat. By early
afternoon, the stationary front will be lifting northward as a
warm front, but indications are now that it will still be south of
our area, so the potential for surface based convection is low.
If any surface based storms can develop, they would occur
primarily across our Central Texas counties anywhere from
Goldthwaite down to Hearne.

This initial wave of showers/storms will continue eastward through
this evening aided by a weak mid level impulse, but moving away
from the stronger low level warm advection. So, we should see a
gradual decrease in the coverage of showers/storms through the
late evening hours. This lull in coverage should be temporary as
the main shortwave ejects into the Central Plains late Thursday
night and a surface low deepens across West Texas. As this low
spreads eastward into early Friday morning, the warm front across
Central Texas will begin to move northward. Strong low level warm
advection should lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms
north of the warm front, mainly across our northern counties early
Friday. This activity will spread eastward through the day Friday
ahead of a southward surging cold front. There should be a warm
sector somewhere across our area Friday afternoon, most likely
across our Central Texas counties where a few strong to severe
storms could develop. We'll continue to monitor this potential
over the next 24 hours, but the cold front will quickly move
through the region by early Friday evening.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 222 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021/
/Friday night through Wednesday/

Most of the long-term portion of the forecast will be
characterized by dry conditions and continued pleasant, below
normal temperatures for mid-April.

A strong cold front will dive southward through North and Central
Texas Friday evening, clearing the entire forecast area before
midnight. An expansive area of showers and isolated thunderstorms
should be exiting our eastern counties by late evening as a fast-
moving shortwave zips across the region. Maintained chance PoPs
Friday evening mainly east of the I-35 corridor, trimming to
residual low values in the far southeast after midnight. In the
wake of the strong cold front, brisk north winds will prevail
across the area Saturday at sustained speeds of 10-20 mph, gusting
at times to near 30 mph. Low level cold advection and cloudy
skies will combine to limit daytime temperatures to the 60s at
most locations, with upper 50s holding sway in the western and
northern counties. The NBM is hinting at overrunning light shower
activity across Central Texas Saturday afternoon, and included
some low PoPs in the extreme southern zones to cover this
scenario.

The arrival of drier air and weak low and mid-level subsidence
should yield some partial clearing in most areas Sunday, though
northerly winds will continue to pump cooler air into the region.
Despite some sun, cold advection will temper Sunday's highs, with
afternoon readings remaining in the 60s - some 10-15 degrees below
climatological norms for mid April.

Mild conditions will continue Monday through Wednesday, under
generally clear to partly cloudy skies. Although a couple of mid-
level shortwaves will transit the region during this period, low
level moisture will remain rather sparse, and have omitted PoPs at
this time. Temperatures Monday afternoon will top out in the 60s
and lower 70s, rebounding to the mid/upper 70s by Wednesday.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

No significant changes expected to the latest TAF forecast. Poor
flying conditions are expected through Friday with widespread low
MVFR cigs much of the period along with TEMPO IFR conditions.
Widespread showers/storms are expected later today and again late
tonight into Friday. We'll mention a period of TSRA this
afternoon/evening at all sites and add additional TSRA to the
extended portion of the DFW TAF for Friday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  58  68  48  64 /  60  80  90  30   5
Waco                70  61  76  50  64 /  70  50  70  30  10
Paris               66  52  57  47  61 /  20  70 100  40   5
Denton              66  54  65  44  62 /  60  90  90  20   5
McKinney            68  55  64  47  62 /  40  90 100  30   5
Dallas              70  59  68  50  64 /  60  80  90  30   5
Terrell             70  55  66  47  63 /  50  70 100  40   5
Corsicana           69  59  70  50  64 /  60  50  80  40   5
Temple              69  61  77  50  64 /  70  50  60  30  10
Mineral Wells       66  57  72  44  62 /  80  80  80  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
243 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-160745-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
243 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across eastern
North Texas prior to daybreak, and mainly in areas along and west of
Interstate 35 this afternoon. While widespread severe weather is not
anticipated, a few thunderstorms may produce hail today and this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Intermittent storm chances will continue through Friday evening
across all of North and Central Texas. The severe weather threat will
generally be low during this time, but a few strong to marginally
severe storms will be possible late Thursday into Friday. Hail is the
main hazard that may be encountered.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
938 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

TXZ115-129-151515-
Stephens TX-Eastland TX-
938 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL EASTLAND AND
SOUTHERN STEPHENS COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM CDT...

At 937 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gunsight, or 8 miles south of Breckenridge, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Breckenridge, Ranger, Necessity and Gunsight.

LAT...LON 3276 9902 3275 9858 3268 9857 3267 9857
      3267 9858 3260 9857 3245 9858 3251 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 273DEG 31KT 3263 9891

Barnes

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1208 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

TXZ142-151745-
Mills TX-
1208 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MILLS COUNTY UNTIL
1245 PM CDT...

At 1208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Camp Bowie, or 13 miles south of Brownwood, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Mullin.

LAT...LON 3149 9899 3161 9878 3169 9876 3172 9850
      3166 9844 3144 9887 3144 9889 3143 9890
      3143 9893 3146 9894 3144 9896 3146 9897
      3147 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 219DEG 41KT 3152 9892

Barnes

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
148 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

TXZ115-116-151915-
Palo Pinto TX-Stephens TX-
148 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS AND PALO
PINTO COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 148 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Possum Kingdom State Park, or 20 miles south of Graham, moving east
at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Mineral Wells, Graford and Possum Kingdom State Park.

LAT...LON 3295 9871 3294 9806 3254 9807 3265 9871
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 271DEG 47KT 3281 9856

Barnes