Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
212 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 126 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021/
/Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday/

Another seasonably hot day is taking shape across North and Central
TX as temperatures climb well into the 90s. A passing upper level
disturbance will provide the focus for isolated to scattered showers
and storms through this evening. Regional radar imagery shows a
few showers and storms popping up across the Arklatex region
moving to the south/southwest. Additionally, remnants of a weak
outflow boundary have resulted in light showers to the northwest.
With plenty of instability in place, we will see an increase in
showers/storm activity through this evening, but coverage will
remain around 20-40%. While severe weather is not anticipated, we
can't rule out some strong gusty winds in addition to heavy rain.
Wednesday's forecast will almost be a copy/paste from today.
Winds will still be light, but the highest storm chances (30-40%)
will be across Central TX. Nevertheless, we can't rule out a few
storms across parts of North TX.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Onward/

The extended forecast period consists of what should be some of the
hottest weather of the summer thus far. On Thursday, an upper
ridge over the Central Plains will elongate, spreading stronger
subsidence into North Texas amid rising heights. This should hold
precipitation chances at bay for most of North Texas, but
isolated shower or thunderstorm activity could still occur during
the day mainly south of I-20 as modest mid-level moisture streams
overhead within modest easterly flow. The rest of the forecast
area should see highs in the upper 90s with a couple spots
possibly touching the century mark.

The expansion of the upper ridge will continue on Friday into the
weekend. This should nearly eliminate rain chances, while
delivering widespread triple-digit heat to the forecast area by
Sunday. Heat Advisory criteria will almost certainly be met across
most of the CWA over the weekend, with perhaps the exception of
our southwestern zones where dewpoints will mix into the lower 60s
during the afternoon. The rest of the area should reach Heat
Advisory criteria either via heat index values exceeding 105 or
actual temperatures climbing to 103 or higher.

Early next week, a pattern shift to a deeper eastern CONUS trough
and an amplified western CONUS ridge could allow for a weak cold
frontal intrusion into North Texas. This setup would allow for the
return of some convective chances while also sending temperatures
back to near normal in the mid to upper 90s as opposed to triple
digits.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 126 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...convective potential through early this evening.

VFR conditions will prevail through this forecast period outside of
any thunderstorms that develop. Coverage is expected to remain
isolated, but storms will be capable of producing gusty winds.
Kept VCTS for all the DFW Metroplex terminals from 21Z through
02Z. Confidence in storm coverage across Central TX remains too low
to include VCTS at ACT at this time. However, we will continue to
monitor the trends through the evening. All activity will
diminish tonight with the loss of daytime heating with light and
variable winds through tomorrow. Looking beyond...another round of
isolated showers and storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon.

Sanchez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  98  80  98  80 /  20  20   0  10   5
Waco                77  95  77  96  77 /  10  30   5  20   5
Paris               76  95  76  96  77 /  20  10   0   5   0
Denton              76  98  76  98  76 /  20  20   0  10   5
McKinney            77  96  77  97  77 /  20  20   0  10   5
Dallas              80  98  81  98  82 /  20  20   0  10   5
Terrell             76  95  76  96  76 /  20  20   5  10   5
Corsicana           77  95  77  95  78 /  20  30   5  20   5
Temple              75  95  75  96  74 /  10  30   5  20   5
Mineral Wells       74  95  74  96  74 /  30  20   0  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
212 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-281230-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
212 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Severe
weather is not anticipated, but some strong gusty winds are possible
in addition to the heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Afternoon thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday mainly
along and south of Interstate 20. Lightning and gusty winds will be
the primary hazards. After a hot and dry weekend with heat index
values likely exceeding 105, some thunderstorm chances will return
during the early portion of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
325 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

TXZ092-093-272100-
Grayson TX-Cooke TX-
325 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COOKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 325 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Collinsville, or near Whitesboro, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Whitesboro, Collinsville, Lake Kiowa, Ray Roberts Park
Johnson Branch, Tioga, Valley View and Sadler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3368 9682 3341 9683 3341 9684 3342 9699
      3342 9714 3361 9719
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 061DEG 7KT 3357 9695

Godwin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
426 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

TXZ095-272200-
Lamar TX-
426 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LAMAR COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

At 426 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Blossom, or 9 miles east of Paris, moving west at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paris, Blossom, Deport, and Sun Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 9556 3388 9554 3389 9552 3388 9551
      3389 9546 3387 9546 3387 9534 3389 9533
      3388 9531 3338 9531 3339 9538 3345 9548
      3345 9553 3348 9556 3347 9559 3348 9561
      3392 9561 3394 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 087DEG 12KT 3365 9538

Godwin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
446 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

TXZ091-101-102-272215-
Montague TX-Wise TX-Jack TX-
446 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTAGUE...
NORTHWESTERN WISE AND EASTERN JACK COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Newport, or 14 miles northeast of Jacksboro. This
storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3349 9783 3329 9783 3307 9804 3347 9817
      3347 9798 3349 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 071DEG 3KT 3336 9795

Godwin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
505 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

TXZ094-095-106-272230-
Lamar TX-Delta TX-Fannin TX-
505 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAMAR...NORTHWESTERN
DELTA AND SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 505 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Honey Grove, or 15 miles east of Bonham, moving southwest at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Honey Grove, Dodd City, Bonham State Park, Roxton, Ladonia, Pecan
Gap, and Windom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3365 9567 3344 9565 3339 9599 3354 9615
      3369 9615 3381 9580
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 067DEG 5KT 3362 9591

Godwin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
533 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

TXZ094-095-105>107-272315-
Hunt TX-Hopkins TX-Lamar TX-Delta TX-Fannin TX-
533 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HUNT...NORTHERN
HOPKINS...SOUTHERN LAMAR...DELTA AND SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorm extending from Bonham to Cunningham, moving southwest
at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

 Locations impacted include...
Bonham, Commerce, Cooper, Honey Grove, Wolfe City, Dodd City, Bailey,
Bonham State Park, Cooper Lake Park South Sulphur, Cooper Lake Park
Doctors Creek, Roxton, Ladonia, Tira, Pecan Gap and Windom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3323 9587 3341 9620 3368 9622 3366 9578
      3350 9531 3316 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 052DEG 5KT 3355 9575

Bonnette