Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
718 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Thunderstorms are ongoing across North and Central Texas at the
moment. Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all continue
to be possible as the line slowly shifts eastward. The storms are
moving into an environment with continued significant instability.
In addition, thunderstorms across West Texas are moving eastward
with continued elevated instability, therefore, a large hail
threat will continue into the overnight period west of a Bowie to
Mineral Wells to Eastland line.

A Tornado Watch and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch both span across
much of the region. The Tornado Watch is in effect through 11pm
and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through midnight.

For additional details regarding the environment and the rest of
the forecast, see the previous discussion below.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible late this
afternoon into tonight. All North and Central Texas residents need
to stay weather aware today given the possibility of significant
severe weather. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving any
weather alerts, and have a plan in case you are in the path of
hazardous weather.

A rapid evolution of today and tonight's forecast has taken place
within the last 24 hours. Minor changes in the timing of the
front and rapid moisture return have contributed to an increasing
potential for significant severe weather starting late this
afternoon. A cold front is now draped northeast to southwest from
near Bowie to Graham, slowly advancing to the southeast.
Meanwhile, dew points throughout the region have surged into the
lower 70s ahead of the front. At the moment, a stout capping
inversion is keeping convection from developing. This, however, is
expected to change in the next few hours. Radiational heating
will continue ahead of the front, leading to greater
destabilization across the region. CAMs continue to favor an area
around Stephenville for initial thunderstorm development, which
coincides with recent RAP analysis of a developing area of greater
moisture convergence.

An incoming shortwave, coupled with the surface front and a
pseudo-dryline will come together to produce explosive
thunderstorm development initially to the west/southwest of the
DFW Metroplex. Storms will then migrate eastward through North
Texas. Steep mid-level lapse rates will lead to CAPE values
exceeding 4000 J/kg which would translate to significantly large
hail. Deep layer shear and a strong southerly low-level flow will
also increase the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes. The
overall tornado potential will depend on the evolution of the
storms across North Texas. If storms are able to remain discrete,
a greater tornado potential may develop in areas east of I-35 and
north of I-30.

An atypical setup this evening will also lead to a potential for
severe storms behind the front. Given continued steep lapse rates
and high amounts of instability, a few elevated supercells capable
of large hail will be possible across North Texas after around
10pm.

The main line of storms associated with the front will continue
moving to the southeast through the night, likely exiting our far
eastern and southeastern counties closer to sunrise Tuesday.
Cloudy skies will persist through much of tomorrow morning, but
should gradually disperse by tomorrow afternoon. In contrast with
today's temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, tomorrow's
highs will stay in the 80s across North Texas to mid 70s across
Central Texas.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 405 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

In the wake of the early week cold front, cool and mostly dry
conditions will dominate before near to above normal temperatures
return late week and into the weekend. Rain chances may return to
parts of North Texas as early as the middle of the week and then
again this weekend as moisture returns to the region and the next
upper level disturbance approaches from the west.

Surface high pressure will begin building into the region late
Tuesday as current troughing advances downstream into the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Clearing skies, calming winds and
lowering dewpoints will allow for decent radiational cooling
conditions Tuesday night with temperatures dropping into the 40s
and 50s by daybreak Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions remain in
place Wednesday with low humidity, unimpeded insolation, and light
breezes. Winds will gradually turn more easterly/southeasterly as
the surface high shifts into the Mississippi River Valley.
Embedded within the northwest flow aloft a shortwave is expected
to translate southeastward across the Rockies and into the central
and southern Plains late Wednesday. With the enhanced lift
displaced north and west of North and Central Texas and a notable
lack of appreciable moisture there is low confidence that any
convection that develops, potentially evolving into an MCS, will
reach the Red River and northwest areas. In light of continued
inconsistencies this forecast update will keep rainfall potential
just outside of the area. Trends in the evolution of this
shortwave will bare monitoring for the potential of at least low
rain chances across parts of North Texas. Shortwave ridging
passing over the region again Thursday will set up a seasonably
mild and clear end to the work week. Lows in the 50s and highs in
the 70s and 80s are expected Thursday and Friday.

Mother's Day weekend will kick off with the de-
amplification/weakening of the ridge overhead as an upper level
low moves onshore and translates across the Intermountain West.
Increasing south winds in response to the approaching disturbance
will lead to an influx of moisture from the Gulf overspreading the
region Friday night and Saturday. The passage of a series of
shortwaves rounding the approaching upper level low will be marked
by increasing cloud cover and rain and thunderstorm chances
through the weekend and into early next week. As is usually the
case when there is the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorm at the Day 7/8 juncture, although the conditions
look favorable for convection and severe weather, considerable
uncertainty remains in timing, track, and potential impacts.
Subsequent long term forecast updates will focus heavily on
clarifying the details for this weekend and early next week. No
need to cancel outdoor plans just yet, but continue to check back
for forecast updates throughout the week as you finalize your
weekend/early next week plans.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns...Ongoing thunderstorms. MVFR tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of an approaching cold
front throughout North and Central Texas. The storms will likely
continue to impact the TAF sites through the next 2-3 hours
before the line gradually shifts eastward. Hail will be a concern
through the next few hours given the nature of the very unstable
atmosphere.

Behind the front, winds will become northwesterly with an MVFR
deck progressing through the night. Cloud heights will likely
remain between FL015 and FL025 before becoming VFR by later in the
afternoon. Breezy northwesterly winds will persist through the day
tomorrow

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  73  52  76  56 /  60   5   0   0   0
Waco                63  75  52  77  54 /  50  10   0   0   0
Paris               63  70  48  72  52 /  70  10   0   0   0
Denton              59  71  47  74  51 /  60   5   0   0   0
McKinney            61  71  48  74  52 /  60   5   0   0   0
Dallas              64  74  53  77  57 /  60   5   0   0   0
Terrell             64  73  49  74  52 /  60  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           66  76  52  76  54 /  50  10   0   0   0
Temple              63  76  52  77  54 /  40  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       59  71  47  75  51 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
341 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041215-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
341 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Severe storms are expected later this afternoon and through the
evening across much of North and Central Texas. Main hazard will be
very large hail and damaging winds, although a few tornadoes can't be
ruled out.

Strong to severe storms will continue to be possible tonight. Hail
and damaging will be the primary threats overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Low thunderstorm chances will continue across primarily eastern
Central Texas early Tuesday morning. Gusty winds and small hail will
be possible with stronger storms.

Thunderstorm chances may return for parts of North and Central Texas
again next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely late this afternoon through tonight
along and east of I-35.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
718 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             3 SSE DENTON            33.18N 97.11W
05/03/2021  E1.00 INCH       DENTON             TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
719 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TORNADO          3 W BLUM                32.14N 97.45W
05/03/2021                   HILL               TX   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASERS REPORT A BRIEF TORNADO TO THE
            SOUTH OF THE ROAD AS THE STORM APPROACHES
            BLUM.

&&

JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
720 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             4 W CELINA              33.33N 96.85W
05/03/2021  E1.00 INCH       DENTON             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED 1 MILE WEST OF THE COUNTY LINE.

&&

JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
726 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     TORNADO          2 WNW BLUM              32.15N 97.43W
05/03/2021                   HILL               TX   STORM CHASER

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF A TORNADO REPORTED,
            LIKELY LOOKING NORTH OR NORTHWEST OF THE
            ROAD.

&&

JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
732 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             RHOME                   33.05N 97.47W
05/03/2021  E1.00 INCH       WISE               TX   PUBLIC

&&

JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
734 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             2 NW RIO VISTA          32.25N 97.39W
05/03/2021  E3.00 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: TEA CUP (3.00 IN.).

&&

JLD