Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 15, 2021

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Aug 15, 2021, 12:37 PM MST. It was in force for 23 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 15, 2021, 12:37 PM MST (19:37 UTC)
Expired
Aug 15, 2021, 1:00 PM MST
In force
23 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Hail
0.25 in
Wind
30

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 15 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2021-08-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 9 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2021-08-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 41 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
9 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-172 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2026 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
73 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 15, 9:55 AM MST, 2 hours 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 15, 9:55 AM MST, 2 hours 42 minutes before
<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 15, 12:37 PM MST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1237 PM MST Sun Aug 15 2021

AZZ015-038-152000-
Western Mogollon Rim-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
1237 PM MST Sun Aug 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Coconino County
through 100 PM MST...

At 1235 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Parks, or 19 miles west of Flagstaff, moving southwest
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Minor flooding and peasized hail is possible
         over portions of Interstate 17 near Williams.

Locations impacted include...
Raymond Boy Scout Camp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3521 11193 3516 11187 3505 11194 3518 11207
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 048DEG 19KT 3514 11196

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

RR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 15, 12:52 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino38 min
Aug 15, 1:22 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZApache38 min
Aug 15, 1:43 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai36 min
Aug 15, 2:17 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino43 min
Aug 15, 2:33 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZCoconino, Yavapai3 hr
Aug 15, 2:42 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai48 min
Aug 15, 3:36 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai39 min
Aug 15, 3:49 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino, Navajo26 min
Aug 15, 3:52 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZNavajo23 min
Aug 15, 4:49 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZApache41 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.