Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
125 PM MST Fri Jul 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected across northern Arizona through the weekend. Localized
flash flooding will be possible within the heavier showers and
storms. An increase in moisture next week will bring even greater
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Convection developed along the high terrain late
this morning and continues early this afternoon. We expect as the
afternoon progresses storms will push into the lower elevations,
especially Yavapai and Gila counties. Ample moisture is available
for these storms and we have seen impressive rainfall rates of 2-3
inches per hour so far. Expect flash flooding to remain the
primary hazard through the rest of the day. As always, avoid
flooded roadways. With the saturated airmass overhead, model
guidance is indicating the potential for lingering shower activity
into the overnight hours. We have kept isolated showers for a
large portion of the area into early Saturday morning to cover
this.

Afternoon convection will continue this weekend as moisture
remains over the region. We could see a slight downturn in the
activity, but still expect isolated to scattered coverage each
day. Flash flooding will remain the primary concern.

A more classic monsoon pattern sets up early next week as high
pressure shifts into the Four Corners. This will open the door for
even more moisture to advect into the area. Expect widespread
thunderstorm activity each day. At this time, there is no sign of
any significant break in the monsoon over the next several days.
By the time we get to the end of next week, many locations could
already have eclipsed their rainfall total from the entire 2020
monsoon season.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will gradually lessen in coverage and intensity
through the evening. Near storms, expect local areas of MVFR
ceilings and visibilities. Lingering shower activity is possible
overnight. Look for another round of showers and storms to develop
Saturday afternoon. Outside of storm activity, expect light winds
and VFR conditions. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue across northern Arizona this weekend. Wetting rains and
flash flooding are the main threats. Winds will remain light, except
near thunderstorms where gusty and erratic winds are possible. Near
average temperatures are forecast during this time.

Monday through Wednesday...Moisture will increase with high chances
for thunderstorm activity each day. Daytime temperatures will remain
around average.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS
AVIATION...TPS
FIRE WEATHER...TPS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
243 PM MST FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW FLAGSTAFF MALL    35.22N 111.62W
07/16/2021                   COCONINO           AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            2.5 FT. FLOWS WERE OBSERVED AT THE DORTHA
            CROSSING, AND WATERS HAVE OVERTOPPED THE
            ROADWAY.

&&

TM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
314 PM MST Fri Jul 16 2021

AZZ038-162245-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
314 PM MST Fri Jul 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
MST...

At 313 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
north of Sedona, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Yavapai County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3492 11194 3497 11188 3492 11179 3486 11184
      3488 11190
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 295DEG 8KT 3492 11188

McCollum

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