Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

896 
WWUS55 KFGZ 280054
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
554 PM MST Mon Sep 27 2021

AZC005-280115-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-210928T0115Z/
Coconino-
554 PM MST Mon Sep 27 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MST
FOR COCONINO COUNTY...

At 553 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles southwest
of Jacob Lake, moving southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
Coconino County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 11236 3658 11217 3636 11227 3650 11256
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 030DEG 5KT 3655 11232 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

McCollum

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
314 PM MST Mon Sep 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue
across northern Arizona today and through the end of the week with
chances generally decreasing through the week. The best chance of
storms each day will be in the afternoons with moisture and cloud
cover helping to keep afternoon high temperatures well below
seasonal norms. Warm and dry weather will return by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The area of low pressure has slowly moved eastward
today and is now located over New Mexico. Low-level moisture
remains over the region, however, supplying scattered showers and
storms across Arizona. This moisture on the backside of the
disturbance will allow rain chances to remain in the forecast
through the evening hours and overnight with storms moving to the
southwest. While widespread showers can be expected, Hi-Res
models show the most widespread activity this afternoon into the
evening being located in Yavapai County.

On Tuesday, rain chances generally increase towards the eastern
portion of the state, but isolated showers and storms will remain possible
near Flagstaff and in eastern Yavapai County. An upper-level
trough will quickly approach the region by Tuesday, digging far
enough south to keep precipitation in the forecast. Stronger winds
out of the southwest and gusty conditions can be expected
tomorrow afternoon. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate that the
trough will amplify Wednesday with the axis over west to central
Arizona. By Thursday, the trough is expected to move further
eastward, but lingering moisture will keep rain in the forecast
through Friday. Many areas will see cold overnight lows Thursday
and Friday with early morning low temperatures nearing freezing.

Warmer and drier conditions are in the forecast, but we will have
to wait until the weekend for clearing skies as a ridge builds in
the area. Temperatures are expected to approach our average fall
temperatures by the Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms across northern AZ will continue this afternoon.
Generally light winds will be interrupted by strong gusts near
storms. Thunderstorm chances will decrease after sunset. Some low
ceilings could lead to brief periods of MVFR/IFR through 06z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cool temperatures, showers, and storms remain in the
forecast with the majority of rainfall in the eastern portion of the
state Tuesday and more widespread chances on Wednesday. Stronger,
breezy southwesterly winds are expected Tuesday before winds weaken
Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Showers and cool temperatures will
linger Thursday into Friday before warming and drying occurs on
Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...JM
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...JM

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
136 PM MST Mon Sep 27 2021

AZZ007-272115-
Coconino Plateau-
136 PM MST Mon Sep 27 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Coconino County
near Fraziers Well through 215 PM MST...

At 136 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fraziers Well, or 65 miles northeast of Kingman, moving south at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fraziers Well and Hualapai Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 11313 3583 11299 3561 11304 3568 11328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 017DEG 7KT 3577 11309

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MCT