Freeze Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

340 
WWUS75 KFGZ 122031
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
131 PM MST Tue Oct 12 2021

AZZ014-130445-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FZ.W.0001.211013T0700Z-211013T1600Z/
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-211012T2300Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Including the cities of St. Johns and Springerville
131 PM MST Tue Oct 12 2021

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as 
  low as 25 expected. For the Wind Advisory, southwest winds 25 
  to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...St. Johns and Springerville areas.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, from midnight tonight to 9 AM 
  MST Wednesday. For the Wind Advisory, until 4 PM MST this 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially 
  for high profile vehicles. Frost and freeze conditions will 
  kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage 
  unprotected outdoor plumbing.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

AZZ010-013-040-130445-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FZ.W.0001.211013T0700Z-211013T1600Z/
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-211012T2300Z/
Chinle Valley-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, 
Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi
131 PM MST Tue Oct 12 2021

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as 
  low as 27 expected. For the Wind Advisory, southwest winds 20 
  to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, Winslow, Holbrook, 
  Snowflake, Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, from midnight tonight to 9 AM 
  MST Wednesday. For the Wind Advisory, until 4 PM MST this 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. In 
  addition, winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles. Frost and freeze 
  conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and 
  possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

AZZ008-009-012-130445-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FZ.W.0001.211013T0700Z-211013T1600Z/
Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Including the cities of Prescott, Seligman, Ash Fork, 
Keams Canyon, Kaibito, Wupatki N.M., and Tuba City
131 PM MST Tue Oct 12 2021

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 26 expected.

* WHERE...Keams Canyon, Kaibito, Wupatki N.M., and Tuba City.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. In 
  addition, winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles. Frost and freeze 
  conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and 
  possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

AZZ018-037-130445-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FZ.W.0001.211013T0700Z-211013T1600Z/
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Including the cities of Payson, Strawberry, Young, Cottonwood, 
Camp Verde, Cordes Junction, and Bagdad
131 PM MST Tue Oct 12 2021

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
MST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 expected above 
  4000 feet.

* WHERE...Payson, Strawberry, and Young.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. In 
  addition, winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles. Frost and freeze 
  conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and 
  possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

AZZ017-122300-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-211012T2300Z/
White Mountains-
Including the cities of Show Low, Greer, and Pinetop
131 PM MST Tue Oct 12 2021

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Show Low, Pinetop, and Greer.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially 
  for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ011-016-039-122300-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-211012T2300Z/
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
Black Mesa Area-
Including the cities of Window Rock, Ganado, Heber, Happy Jack, 
Forest Lakes, and Navajo N.M.
131 PM MST Tue Oct 12 2021

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Window Rock, Ganado, Heber, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes 
  and Navajo N.M.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. In 
  addition, winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

232 
WWUS75 KFGZ 130323
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
823 PM MST Tue Oct 12 2021

AZZ008>010-012>014-040-131130-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FZ.W.0001.211013T0700Z-211013T1600Z/
Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Prescott, Seligman, Ash Fork, 
Keams Canyon, Kaibito, Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, 
Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns,
Springerville, Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi
823 PM MST Tue Oct 12 2021

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low
  as 27 expected. 

* WHERE...Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, Winslow, Holbrook, 
  Snowflake, Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

AZZ018-037-131130-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FZ.W.0001.211013T0700Z-211013T1600Z/
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Including the cities of Payson, Strawberry, Young, Cottonwood, 
Camp Verde, Cordes Junction, and Bagdad
823 PM MST Tue Oct 12 2021

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
MST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 expected above 
  4000 feet.

* WHERE...Payson, Strawberry, and Young.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

747 
WWUS75 KFGZ 131557
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
857 AM MST Wed Oct 13 2021

AZZ008>010-012>014-040-131700-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-211013T1600Z/
Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Prescott, Seligman, Ash Fork, 
Keams Canyon, Kaibito, Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, 
Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns,
Springerville, Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi
857 AM MST Wed Oct 13 2021

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM MST THIS MORNING...

Temperatures have increased this morning with most locations
currently in the upper 30s, low 40s. A gradual warmup will take 
place with temperatures returning to near average by the weekend.

$$

AZZ018-037-131700-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-211013T1600Z/
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Including the cities of Payson, Strawberry, Young, Cottonwood, 
Camp Verde, Cordes Junction, and Bagdad
857 AM MST Wed Oct 13 2021

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM MST THIS MORNING ABOVE
4000 FEET...

Temperatures have increased this morning with most locations
currently in the low to mid 40s. A gradual warmup will take place
with temperatures returning to near average by the weekend.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
817 PM MST Mon Oct 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will produce strong winds, cold
temperatures, rain and higher elevation snow showers across
northern Arizona through Tuesday. Freezing temperatures are likely
down to 5000 feet by Wednesday morning. Tranquil weather returns
for the end of the week with a gradual warming trend into the
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...A strong cold front is moving across the western portion
of the area with a line of showers and thunderstorms out ahead.
Winds are howling across the area with gusts 40-50+ mph. A non
thunderstorm gust to 59 mph was observed at the Sedona Airport
and a gust to 52 mph was reported in Prescott. A mix of graupel
has started along 180 north of Flagstaff where temperatures are
dropping into the upper 30s. Expect the current line to continue
to move north and east over the next few hours with temperatures
dropping and a change over to snow above 6000-7000 ft. As we go
later into the overnight and into Tuesday morning, snow levels
will drop to around 5000-5500 ft.

Updates tonight were made to precipitation chances but amounts
for rain and snow remain on track with no major updates needed. A
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Kaibab Plateau
overnight where more appreciable accumulations of 1-2 inches below
5500 ft and 3 to 7 inches above 7000 ft are expected overnight.
Minor accumulations above 5500 ft are expected for all other
areas. In addition to the snow, Wind Advisories and a High Wind
Warning remain in effect through Tuesday for much of the area
from Flagstaff eastward. Stay safe!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...The center of an approaching low
pressure system was located over central Nevada during the
afternoon hours. Over the next 24 hours the low and associated
cold front will swing across Arizona overnight and Tuesday
bringing strong winds, lower elevation rain, mountain snow and
widespread freezing temperatures Wednesday morning.

We were seeing some of those stronger winds Tuesday afternoon with
a few gust exceeding 40 mph. With the approaching trough it is
expected that strong and gusty winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts
to near 50 mph will continue overnight into Tuesday with a Wind
Advisory in effect for much of northern Arizona. For far east-
central Arizona including Show Low, Vernon, Greer, Eagar and
Springerville downsloping winds from the White Mountains will
produce wind gusts in excess of 60 mph with a High Wind Warning in
effect from 8 PM this evening until 5 AM Tuesday.

Along with the cold front will come an area of concentrated
moisture and upward lift. the result will be a vigorous line of
rain and showers that will swing across the area later this
evening through Tuesday morning. Showers will linger into Tuesday
afternoon across the area of the Kaibab Plateau and Utah/Arizona
border region as some moisture wraps around the passing low. Snow
levels will rapidly drop along and behind the front overnight
with a few flakes possible as low as 5000 feet elevations. The
precipitation over the Kaibab Plateau will push snow accumulations
into the 2 to 7 inch range (depending on elevation) and a Snow
Advisory is in effect for the Kaibab Plateau area tonight through
Tuesday morning. The San Francisco Peaks and White Mountains
could see 4 to 7 inches of accumulation by midday Tuesday.
Elsewhere just a skiff of snow up to 2 inches.

Behind the front cold and dry air will sweep in. Afternoon
temperatures on Tuesday will be 10 to 20 degrees lower than those
observed on Monday. In fact, the warmest temperatures on Tuesday
will likely be observed in the morning then dropping during the
afternoon. The cold and dry will mass also guarantee cold
Wednesday morning temperatures. We are looking at a widespread
freeze at elevations as low as 5000 feet. Make sure and give pets
shelter, bring sensitive plants indoors, detach hoses and protect
any irrigation devices.

For Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...An additional low
pressure system will sweep across the western states. This second
low will be drier and further north. Look for the continuation of
gusty winds through Wednesday afternoon with lighter winds by
Thursday. It will warm some on Wednesday and Thursday with daytime
still remaining 5 to 15 degrees below normal. There will be just
a slight chance of showers along the Arizona/Utah border.

From Friday onward...At this time it looks like a mild fall
weather pattern develops with light winds, seasonable temperatures
and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...A cold front will bring MVFR/IFR
conditions and mountain obscuration in TSRA, SHRA, SHSN, and low
CIGS through the period. Strong southwest winds of 15-25 kts gusting
30-50 kts are expected through 12Z Tuesday. Wide spread LLWS and
turbulence east of KFLG. Northwest winds expected for Tuesday
afternoon with clearing cloud cover. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Strong southwest winds continue for this afternoon
and evening with gusts to 55 mph. The gusty winds persist through
Tuesday morning before shifting northwest Tuesday afternoon,
decreasing in intensity. Periods of rain and higher elevation snow
showers are likely tonight through Tuesday morning as temperatures
drop to 20-25 degrees below average across the region into Wednesday
morning.

Thursday through Saturday...Breezy northwest winds are anticipated
for Thursday afternoon, shifting to the north-northeast for Friday.
Dry conditions return to the region as temperatures gradually warm
back to near average by Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ009-012-015-018-038.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ010-011-013-016-039-
040.

High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ014-017.

Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ014-017.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004>008-037.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ004.

&&

PUBLIC...ET/McCollum
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
210 AM MST TUE OCT 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 9 S PINEDALE            34.18N 110.28W
10/12/2021  M65 MPH          NAVAJO             AZ   MESONET

            MESONET STATION QLCA3 LIMESTONE CANYON.

&&

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
212 AM MST TUE OCT 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST PETRIFIED FOREST NATION 35.06N 109.78W
10/12/2021  M71 MPH          APACHE             AZ   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AZT13 I-40 @ PETRIFIED
            FOREST N P MM 312.

&&

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
213 AM MST TUE OCT 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW WINSLOW            35.03N 110.72W
10/11/2021  M59 MPH          NAVAJO             AZ   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KINW WINSLOW AIRPORT.

&&

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
214 AM MST TUE OCT 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W TWO GUNS            35.12N 111.10W
10/11/2021  M58 MPH          COCONINO           AZ   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AZT09 I-40 @ TWO GUNS MM
            230.

&&

JJ