Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2021

Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 3, 2021Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 3, 2021, 1:18 PM MST for Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 4 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 3, 2021, 1:18 PM MST (20:18 UTC)
Expired: Jul 3, 2021, 5:15 PM MST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Damage threat: Considerable
Flood severity: None

Counties Coconino County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 34 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 203 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -114 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1347 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 124 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

443 
WGUS55 KFGZ 032018
FFWFGZ
AZC005-025-032315-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FF.W.0006.210703T2018Z-210703T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
118 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The Rafael Fire scar in...
  Coconino County in north central Arizona...
  Yavapai County in west central Arizona...

* Until 415 PM MST.

* At 116 PM MST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain over the Rafael Fire scar. 
  Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen. Additional rainfall of 
  0.5-1 inch will be possible. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding in and around the Rafael Fire
           scar.

  SOURCE...Doppler radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
           the Rafael Fire scar.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  White Horse Lake Campground and Raymond Boy Scout Camp.

This includes the following swimming holes...
Sycamore Falls, Lower Sycamore Falls "The Golden Pond", Paradise 
Forks and Parsons Spring along Sycamore Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get to higher ground immediately! Flash flood waters and debris will 
inundate recreation trails crossing washes within and downstream of 
Sycamore Canyon and Creek, including Parsons and Dogie Trails.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 11217 3504 11209 3508 11204 3511 11210
      3518 11207 3517 11195 3508 11185 3497 11190
      3497 11196 3490 11201 3482 11205 3490 11212
      3490 11216

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

ET

3 follow-up statements

218 
WGUS75 KFGZ 032145
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
245 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

AZC005-025-032315-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210703T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-Yavapai AZ-
245 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RAFAEL FIRE SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 415 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

At 242 PM MST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms were producing heavy rain over the Rafael Fire scar 
earlier today. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inch of rain fell over the scar. 
Light to moderate rain continues over the southern portion of the 
scar. Flash flooding is likely ongoing near Sycamore Creek.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Rafael Fire scar.

SOURCE...Doppler radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Rafael Fire scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  White Horse Lake Campground and Raymond Boy Scout Camp.

This includes the following swimming holes...
Sycamore Falls, Lower Sycamore Falls "The Golden Pond", Paradise 
Forks and Parsons Spring along Sycamore Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get to higher ground immediately! Flash flood waters and debris will 
inundate recreation trails crossing washes within and downstream of 
Sycamore Canyon and Creek, including Parsons and Dogie Trails.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 11217 3504 11209 3508 11204 3511 11210
      3518 11207 3517 11195 3508 11185 3497 11190
      3497 11196 3490 11201 3482 11205 3490 11212
      3490 11216

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

ET

824 
WGUS55 KFGZ 032239
FFWFGZ
AZC005-025-040015-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210704T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
339 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The Rafael Fire scar in...
  Coconino County in north central Arizona...
  Yavapai County in west central Arizona...

* Until 515 PM MST.

* At 337 PM MST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain over the Rafael Fire scar 
  earlier today. Between 0.5 and 1.25 inches of rain fell over the 
  Sycamore Creek drainage and Rafael Burn Scar. Flash flooding is 
  likely ongoing in this area.

  HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding in and around the Rafael Fire
           scar.

  SOURCE...Doppler radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
           the Rafael Fire scar.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Coconino and Yavapai Counties

This includes the following swimming holes...
	Parsons Spring along Sycamore Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get to higher ground immediately! Flash flood waters and debris will 
inundate recreation trails crossing washes within and downstream of 
Sycamore Canyon and Creek, including Parsons and Dogie Trails.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 11217 3504 11209 3508 11204 3508 11203
      3500 11194 3497 11190 3497 11196 3490 11201
      3482 11205 3490 11212 3490 11216

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

ET

558 
WGUS75 KFGZ 040009
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
509 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

AZC005-025-040019-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210704T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-Yavapai AZ-
509 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RAFAEL FIRE SCAR WILL EXPIRE AT 515 
PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

The threat of heavy rain has ended across the Rafael Fire scar. 
Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3497 11217 3504 11209 3508 11204 3508 11203
      3500 11194 3497 11190 3497 11196 3490 11201
      3482 11205 3490 11212 3490 11216

$$

TPS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 3, 1:43 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino, Navajo	3 hr
Jul 3, 2:07 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 3, 2:25 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	35 min
Jul 3, 3:03 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 3, 3:34 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 3, 4:10 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 3, 4:54 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Gila	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2021 Every flash flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.