Alert archive / Minnesota / Winter Storm Watches in 2021

Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS Grand Forks, ND

December 25, 202117 counties in North Dakota; 18 counties in Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this winter storm watch at Dec 25, 2021, 3:21 AM CST for 17 counties in North Dakota; 18 counties in Minnesota. It took effect at Dec 26, 2021, 3:00 PM CST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 25, 2021, 3:21 AM CST (09:21 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 26, 2021, 3:00 PM CST
Expired
Dec 26, 2021, 3:22 AM CST
In force
Issued by
NWS Grand Forks, ND
All 35 counties

Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 290 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, International Fa, MN at 00:00Z on 2021-12-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, International Fa, MN at 00:00Z on 2021-12-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -127 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
742 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-127 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-94 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

060 
WWUS43 KFGF 250921
WSWFGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
321 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

MNZ027-030-031-280000-
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.211225T1500Z-211226T0000Z/
West Becker-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-
Including the cities of Detroit Lakes, Fergus Falls, Perham, 
New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, and Battle Lake
321 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized higher
  amounts possible. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of
  greater than 6 inches possible. 

* WHERE...West Becker, West Otter Tail and East Otter Tail 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 9 AM this morning 
  to 6 PM CST this evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from 
  Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

MNZ028-280000-
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211227T0300Z-211228T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.211225T1500Z-211226T0000Z/
East Becker-
Including the city of Wolf Lake
321 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized higher
  amounts possible. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of
  greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...East Becker County.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 9 AM this morning 
  to 6 PM CST this evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from 
  Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

MNZ003-029-NDZ038-039-049-052-053-280000-
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.211225T1200Z-211226T0000Z/
Clay-Wilkin-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Moorhead, Breckenridge, Valley City, 
Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, 
and Wahpeton
321 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized higher
  amounts possible. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of
  greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of west central Minnesota and southeast North 
  Dakota.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM CST this 
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday afternoon 
  through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

NDZ006-007-014-015-054-280000-
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-211225T1500Z/
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Cando, Langdon, Fort Totten, Maddock, 
Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
321 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind
  chills as low as 30 below zero. For the Winter Storm Watch, 
  heavy snow of greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Towner, Cavalier, Benson, Ramsey and Western Walsh 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, until 9 AM CST this 
  morning. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday afternoon 
  through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The cold wind chills
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30
  minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while outside. Wear appropriate winter clothing. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

MNZ001-002-040-NDZ008-016-024-026>030-280000-
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
West Polk-Norman-Grant-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, 
Twin Valley, Halstad, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, 
Barrett, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas,
Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna,
Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, 
Hatton, and Portland
321 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow of greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

MNZ004>009-013>017-022>024-032-280000-
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211227T0300Z-211228T0000Z/
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall-
North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-Wadena-
Including the cities of Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, 
Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden,
Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, 
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, 
Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, 
Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, 
Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Wadena, 
and Menahga
321 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow of greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northwest 
  Minnesota.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
940 
WWUS43 KFGF 251327
WSWFGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
727 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

NDZ006-007-014-015-054-280000-
/O.CAN.KFGF.WC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-211225T1500Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Cando, Langdon, Fort Totten, Maddock, 
Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
727 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy snow of greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Ramsey, Benson, Western Walsh, Towner and Cavalier 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

MNZ027-030-031-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.211225T1500Z-211226T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
West Becker-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-
Including the cities of Detroit Lakes, Fergus Falls, Perham, 
New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, and Battle Lake
727 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total 
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized higher 
  amounts possible. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of 
  greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...West Becker, West Otter Tail and East Otter Tail 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM CST this 
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday afternoon 
  through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

MNZ003-029-NDZ038-039-049-052-053-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-211226T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
Clay-Wilkin-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Moorhead, Breckenridge, Valley City, 
Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, 
and Wahpeton
727 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total 
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized higher 
  amounts possible. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of 
  greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of west central Minnesota and southeast North 
  Dakota.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM CST this 
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday afternoon 
  through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

MNZ028-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.211225T1500Z-211226T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211227T0300Z-211228T0000Z/
East Becker-
Including the city of Wolf Lake
727 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total 
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized higher 
  amounts possible. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of 
  greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...East Becker County.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM CST this 
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening 
  through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

MNZ001-002-040-NDZ008-016-024-026>030-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
West Polk-Norman-Grant-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, 
Twin Valley, Halstad, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, 
Barrett, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas,
Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna,
Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, 
Hatton, and Portland
727 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow of greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

MNZ004>009-013>017-022>024-032-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211227T0300Z-211228T0000Z/
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall-
North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-Wadena-
Including the cities of Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, 
Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden,
Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, 
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, 
Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, 
Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, 
Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Wadena, 
and Menahga
727 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow of greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northwest 
  Minnesota.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$
743 
WWUS43 KFGF 251335
WSWFGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
735 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

MNZ027-030-031-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.211225T1500Z-211226T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
West Becker-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-
Including the cities of Detroit Lakes, Fergus Falls, Perham, 
New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, and Battle Lake
735 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total 
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized higher 
  amounts possible. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of 
  greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...West Becker, West Otter Tail and East Otter Tail 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM CST this 
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday afternoon 
  through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

MNZ003-029-NDZ038-039-049-052-053-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-211226T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
Clay-Wilkin-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Moorhead, Breckenridge, Valley City, 
Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, 
and Wahpeton
735 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total 
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized higher 
  amounts possible. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of 
  greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of west central Minnesota and southeast North 
  Dakota.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM CST this 
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday afternoon 
  through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

MNZ028-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.211225T1500Z-211226T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211227T0300Z-211228T0000Z/
East Becker-
Including the city of Wolf Lake
735 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total 
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized higher 
  amounts possible. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of 
  greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...East Becker County.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM CST this 
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening 
  through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

MNZ001-002-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
West Polk-Norman-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-
Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-
Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, 
Twin Valley, Halstad, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, 
Barrett, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, 
Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, 
Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, 
Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, 
Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
735 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow of greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

MNZ004>009-013>017-022>024-032-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211227T0300Z-211228T0000Z/
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall-
North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-Wadena-
Including the cities of Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, 
Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden,
Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, 
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, 
Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, 
Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, 
Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Wadena, 
and Menahga
735 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow of greater than 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northwest 
  Minnesota.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$
496 
WWUS43 KFGF 252044
WSWFGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
244 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

MNZ003-027-029>031-NDZ038-039-049-052-053-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-211226T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
Clay-West Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Barnes-
Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Moorhead, Detroit Lakes, Breckenridge, 
Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, 
Battle Lake, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, 
Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton
244 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow. Additional snow
  less than one inch. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of
  greater than 6 inches possible. 

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM CST this 
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday afternoon 
  through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

MNZ028-280000-
/O.EXT.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211227T0000Z-211228T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-211226T0000Z/
East Becker-
Including the city of Wolf Lake
244 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow. Additional snow
  accumulations of up to one inch. For the Winter Storm Watch,
  heavy snow of greater than 6 inches possible. 

* WHERE...East Becker County.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM CST this 
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening 
  through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

MNZ004>009-013>017-022>024-032-280000-
/O.EXT.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211227T0000Z-211228T0000Z/
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall-
North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-Wadena-
Including the cities of Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, 
Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden,
Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, 
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, 
Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, 
Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, 
Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Wadena, 
and Menahga
244 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow of greater than 6 inches possible.
 
* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northwest 
  Minnesota.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

MNZ001-002-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
West Polk-Norman-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-
Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-
Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, 
Twin Valley, Halstad, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, 
Barrett, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, 
Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, 
Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, 
Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, 
Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
244 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow of greater than 6 inches possible. 

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

dtr
861 
WWUS43 KFGF 252358
WSWFGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
558 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

MNZ003-027-029>031-NDZ038-039-049-052-053-280000-
/O.EXP.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-211226T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
Clay-West Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Barnes-
Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Moorhead, Detroit Lakes, Breckenridge, 
Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, 
Battle Lake, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, 
Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton
558 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of greater than 6
  inches possible. 

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could significantly reduce the visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

MNZ028-280000-
/O.EXP.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-211226T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211227T0000Z-211228T0000Z/
East Becker-
Including the city of Wolf Lake
558 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of greater than 6
  inches possible. 

* WHERE...East Becker County.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could significantly reduce the visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

MNZ001-002-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
West Polk-Norman-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-
Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-
Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, 
Twin Valley, Halstad, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, 
Barrett, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, 
Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, 
Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, 
Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, 
Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
558 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of greater than 6
  inches possible. 

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing
  snow could significantly reduce the visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

MNZ004>009-013>017-022>024-032-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211227T0000Z-211228T0000Z/
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall-
North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-Wadena-
Including the cities of Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, 
Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden,
Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, 
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, 
Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, 
Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, 
Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Wadena, 
and Menahga
558 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow of greater than 6
  inches possible. 

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northwest 
  Minnesota.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could significantly reduce the visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$
361 
WWUS43 KFGF 260922
WSWFGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
322 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021

MNZ001>003-027-029>031-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054-280000-
/O.UPG.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.W.0006.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-West Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-
East Otter Tail-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-
Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-
Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, 
Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Detroit Lakes, Breckenridge, 
Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, 
Battle Lake, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, 
Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, 
Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, 
Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, 
Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, 
Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, Wahpeton, 
Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
322 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 
  11 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The 
  cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero could cause frostbite 
  on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

MNZ004>009-013>017-022>024-028-032-280000-
/O.UPG.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211227T0000Z-211228T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.W.0006.211227T0000Z-211228T0000Z/
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall-
North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-East Becker-
Wadena-
Including the cities of Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, 
Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden,
Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, 
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, 
Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, 
Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, 
Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, 
Wolf Lake, Wadena, and Menahga
322 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northwest 
  Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

MNZ040-280000-
/O.UPG.KFGF.WS.A.0003.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFGF.WW.Y.0017.211226T2100Z-211228T0000Z/
Grant-
Including the cities of Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, 
and Barrett
322 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Grant County.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Dec 25, 3:11 AM CST, 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 25, 3:11 AM CST, 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
311 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

Main concern will impacts from snow accumulations across SE ND and
WC MN. Radar imagery indicates snow setting up across south
central North Dakota, in the vicinity of mid level (700mb)
frontogensis. Synoptic forcing from the upper level wave
(currently seen on water vapor imagery across SE Montana) will
eventually catch up to the frontogenesis and enhance snowfall
rates and/or lead to more organized banding. Anticipate most areas
to receive a quick 3-6 inches of snowfall. Will need to monitor
snow ratios, snowfall rates, and radar (for organization) as most
model QPF with ratios close to 20:1 produces 6-8 inches of snow.
With the snow falling in a relatively short (4-6 hour) period,
warning impacts are a possibility. Will continue to monitor for
potential upgrade to warning. Did expand the advisory eastward a
tier of counties with guidance indicating higher QPF, which makes
sense given the location of the mid-level baroclinic zone and
expected track of the upper wave. Further north, main question
will be how much snow accumulates. Current thinking is at least a
dusting or an inch north of the heaviest snowfall, with no snow
north of Hwy 2.

Snow ends from west to east this evening, with temperatures
overnight falling into the negative single digits. Winds will be
lighter, but portions of the Devils Lake basin may again approach
advisory wind chill criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

Overview...

Multiple rounds of winter weather impacts will be possible
throughout the long term period. These impacts will range from snow,
possibly heavy at times Sunday afternoon into Monday and Tuesday
into Wednesday as well as dangerously cold wind chills from
Wednesday through Friday.

Discussion...

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to introduce periodic
shortwaves to the region through midweek. By midweek, a shift to
west-northwesterly flow aloft will then help to usher in cold, below
normal temperatures while offering a reprieve from precipitation
impacts.

Sunday and Monday...

A winter storm watch is now in effect for this event. A robust
shortwave (or shortwaves) is expected to impact the region Sunday
afternoon into Monday. Overall, strong synoptic scale forcing will
provide a foci for lift with this system. As a result, accumulating
snow is likely across most of the forecast area. Some banding may
occur with mesoscale frontogenetical forcing as well, but confidence
in the location and conjunction of the synoptic and mesoscale
forcing is low at this time. The main complexity arises with the
possibility for a multi wave interaction to occur and yield a longer
residence time of snowfall.

Ahead of this shortwave, WAA will yield increasing moisture across
the area. Model QPF values are comfortably in the 0.3-0.5" range.
This is likely a result of the WAA as well as a generally slower
moving system and longer residence time for snowfall to occur.
Resultant probabilities of exceedance are beginning to reflect this
uptick in QPF as well. While initially snow growth is expected to
occur outside of the DGZ, as the event unfolds, model soundings are
indicating that the DGZ will become a more prevalent feature.
Ensemble probabilities of 24 hour snowfall exceeding 4 inches are in
the 80-90% range, with probabilities of exceeding 8 inches in the 30-
50% range. These probabilities support a winter storm watch
issuance.

As the system progresses through the area, gusty winds on the back
side will introduce some blowing and drifting snow impacts on
Monday. Current guidance indicates sustained winds in the 15-20 kt
range with gusts into the 30s possible, especially west of the RRV.
Given dropping temperatures and freshly fallen snow, expect some
visibility and travel impacts to occur with this system. Given the
expected temperatures, sustained winds >= 30 mph needed for
blizzard conditions for which there is a very low chance (~10%).

Tuesday and Wednesday...

As quickly as the Sunday/Monday system exits the region, a second
system is expected to ride the southwesterly flow into the northern
Plains once again. While not as potent as the prior wave, there does
still seem to be another chance for accumulating snowfall with this
system. Exact details are still a bit up in the air, but overall
this looks to be a synoptically forced event. Ensemble probabilities
of 24 hour snowfall exceeding 2 inches are in the 50-70% range. As
the main upper trough forcing this event translates eastward,
northwesterly flow aloft will begin to filter into the region. This
will begin to yield cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills that
are expected to remain in place through the end of the week.

Thursday and Friday...

With the advent of northwesterly flow aloft, precipitation chances
look to come to a halt. With that said, attention turns to a
prolonged period of cold temperatures that will accompany this flow
pattern shift. Well below zero low temperatures are anticipated with
highs struggling to reach the zero degree mark. While winds do not
look to be overly impressive, sustained winds in the 10-15 kt range
will drive dangerously cold wind chills. Especially during the
overnight hours, wind chill values in the -30s to -40s will be
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Fri Dec 24 2021

VFR conditions continue for all TAF sites this evening and through
the overnight. Around 12-14z snow begins to shift into eastern ND
and track eastward into west central MN by 18z-20z. Guidance
continues to show the heavier snow setting up along I94 from 16z
through 00z reducing visibilities at times down to near 2SM for FAR.
Other TAF sites may see reduced visibilities down to 4-5SM at times
in heavier snow bands. Ceilings at FAR drop between 1000-3000feet
16z through 00z. Other TAF sites expect low VFR to MVFR CIGS from
18z through 00z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for NDZ038-039-049-052-053.

     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ006-007-
     014-015-054.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for MNZ003-029.

     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for MNZ001>003-027-029>031-040.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for MNZ027-028-030-031.

     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
     for MNZ004>009-013>017-022>024-028-032.

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Rick
AVIATION...Spender
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 24, 2:20 PM CST, 13 hours 1 minute before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
220 PM CST Fri Dec 24 2021

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-252030-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
220 PM CST Fri Dec 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Multiple chances for accumulating snow are possible over the
holiday weekend and into next week.

On Saturday, most areas between the highway 2 corridor and the
South Dakota border will receive at least an inch or two of snow.
Although the exact location is uncertain, a smaller area in
between may receive around 6 inches of snow. Travel will be
affected, especially the areas that receive heavy snowfall in a
short period of time.

It is appearing more likely that the next system, from Sunday into
Monday, will be even more impactful than the Saturday system, and
for a wider area. Stay tuned for later refinement on this system.
There is also a third system on the horizon for Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Additional travel impacts appear likely for both
systems.

Towards mid week, temperatures will rapidly fall below zero.
Dangerous wind chills approaching 40 degrees below zero appear
possible on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Snowfall reports are always appreciated.

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in Minnesota, 2021Winter Storm Watches in North Dakota, 2021Every winter storm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.