Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Main impacts continue to be from wildfire smoke into Saturday.
Thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into the evening
hours, and while a strong storm can't be ruled out severe weather
is not anticipated.

Smoke has continued to linger with higher concentrations in the
south and better improvement along the International border where
stronger southwest flow flow is just ahead of the approaching cold
front, and it is still possible . A second round of smoke should
arrive later tonight behind the front and higher concentrations
should return based on HRRR smoke model. This could then get trapped
over our region once again with lingering impacts through the day
Saturday. Smoke complicates daytime heating/temps and stability/low
level lapse rates during peak heating.

CAMs still show a period of widely scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms mainly during the evening period along the front as it
moves north to south out of Canada. SPC objective analysis shows MU
CAPE in southern Manitoba near or just over 1000 J/KG close to this
front where better low level lapse rates developed in clearing/less
smoke. In our north CAPE is generally 500 J/KG or less, and
ultimately it will likely fall in this range (500-1000 J/KG) with
inconsistent values. Effective shear may be enhances immediately
along the frontal zone as it passes, so if CAPE were on the higher
end of this range a strong cell with sub-severe hail/wind can't be
ruled out before sunset. Confidence isn't particularly high due
unfavorable mid level lapse rates and marginal nature of instability
in general.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Not much in the way of any impacts outside of the continuing smoke
keeping us cool. Ensemble guidance indicates high agreement between
members of continued enhanced ridging, shifting us to northerly
flow. This will allow temperatures to rise up into the 80s. Main
question will be if we can manage to cross into the 90s. The primary
limiting factor will be the question of smoke. Smoke issues are
expected to persist through the weekend and possibly well into next
week. This will limit temperatures and possibly keep us away from
the 90s. Unfortunately, this also means persistent air quality
issues could continue through the long term.

Outside of that, signals are there for potential shortwave troughs
late next week, although predictability is low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

MVFR to IFR conditions prevail across the area this afternoon as
thick smoke continues to impact visibility. This is expected to
continue through the evening hours ahead of a cold front that will
push through the region tonight. Expect some clearing once the
front passes; however, short term models continue to bring
additional smoke into the area over the next several days.
Visibility will range from 1 to 4 miles on average, but could vary
over short distances.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...Perroux
AVIATION...Lynch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
503 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-311015-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
503 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thick smoke from fires in Canada continues to create reduced
visibilities and poor air quality across northwest and west
central MN, and parts of eastern ND this morning. Conditions are
expected to improve later this afternoon. Some scattered thunderstorms
are possible along and north of Hwy 2 this afternoon and evening.
Severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
939 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

MNZ005-006-310330-
Roseau MN-Lake Of The Woods MN-
939 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ROSEAU AND CENTRAL
LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 939 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Longworth, or 25 miles northeast of Roseau, moving southeast at 40
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Warroad, Arnesen, Springsteel Island, Williams, Roosevelt, Lude and
Birch Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4849 9491 4900 9556 4900 9516 4916 9515
      4894 9470 4888 9468 4883 9471 4878 9469
      4874 9464 4872 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 313DEG 35KT 4904 9529

Lynch