Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
636 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

One large storm formed near the Upper and Lower Red Lakes in
northwest Minnesota, and tracked southeast to the southeast tip of
Beltrami County. This cell has produced very large hail, some
wind, and possibly a tornado. No information is likely to be
received to confirm the possible tornado tonight. These cells
have mainly moved off into the Minnesota arrowhead, but the tail
end of some activity remains around Bemidji. The other area being
watched is further west, between Bismarck and Jamestown. Cells
have developed in this area too, but so far, nothing has taken
off. As the night wears on, some activity could fill in between
these two areas, but confidence is low. As has been messaged
before, even though confidence is low, a severe thunderstorm watch
has been issued for a good portion of the FA, and if something
goes, it could produce very large hail, damaging winds, and
possibly a tornado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Not much change to the previous thinking with respect to the
convective potential this afternoon and evening. Will continue to
monitor satellite and radar trends for storm initiation potential
along the warm front or within the axis of instability stretching
from near Minot to the west across the FA. See the above mesoscale
discussion for more details on convection timing and impacts.

Activity will depart overnight with another warm and sunny day
expected tomorrow with highs in the 90s for the valley and west
with upper 80s in the MN lakes and trees. Tomorrow night another
weak short wave will bring thunder chances to the area with
minimal rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Impacts in the long term remain the same as much of the summer
with above normal temps and overall dry pattern in place with
northwesterly flow dominating the pattern across the northern
plains into next week. Impacts of this pattern continue to be tied
to prolonging or re-enforcing drought conditions. Temps will
remain in the upper 80s and low 90s into the weekend with a
possible cool down to near the normal into the low 80s by Sunday
and Monday.

With in the northwest flow aloft will be chances of convection
with any weak shortwaves riding the western ridge with
predictability remaining low wrt to timing and placement.
Wednesday's 20 to 40 percent chance of storms is the highest in
the extended with the best chances east of the valley then dry
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

At this point, the only storm out there at the moment is affecting
KBJI. Mentioned a VCTS at KBJI for another hour or so, then will
have to re-evaluate. Confidence is too low to mention thunder
tonight at any of the other sites, but will amend if it becomes
more likely. Wind speeds look to remain relatively low
throughout, and the presence of high level smoke brings the SCT200
mention.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
432 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-014>016-024-026>030-
038-039-049-052>054-272145-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-Benson-
Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-
Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh-
432 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severe storms are possible late this afternoon and evening.
The strongest storms will be capable of hail the size of baseballs
and wind gusts to 75 mph. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of west
central Minnesota Wednesday into Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible. SKYWARN spotters are encouraged
to report hail of any size, wind damage, and rainfall amounts to
the National Weather Service.

NDZ006-007-272145-
Towner-Cavalier-
432 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
553 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TURTLE RIVER            47.59N 94.76W
07/26/2021                   BELTRAMI           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF TREES BENT.

0544 PM     HAIL             TURTLE RIVER            47.59N 94.76W
07/26/2021  NULLNAN INCH     BELTRAMI           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAMAGING HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
605 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             BLACKDUCK               47.73N 94.55W
07/26/2021  M1.75 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT THE
            BLACKDUCK GOLF COURSE.

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TENSTRIKE               47.66N 94.68W
07/26/2021                   BELTRAMI           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED.

0600 PM     HAIL             TENSTRIKE               47.66N 94.68W
07/26/2021  M1.75 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
615 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             PENNINGTON              47.48N 94.48W
07/26/2021  M2.50 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   PUBLIC

            2.5 INCH HAIL REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WITH
            IMAGE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
623 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

MNZ017-024-270000-
Hubbard MN-South Beltrami MN-
623 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HUBBARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN BELTRAMI COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 623 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rosby, or 8 miles southeast of Bemidji, moving east at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bemidji, Wilton, Lavinia, Rosby, Pennington and Nary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4741 9467 4732 9467 4732 9466 4726 9466
      4744 9502 4754 9503 4753 9442 4741 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 291DEG 33KT 4739 9475

CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             TENSTRIKE               47.66N 94.68W
07/26/2021  E2.75 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND WINDOW
            DAMAGE VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
841 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

MNZ009-017-270230-
North Beltrami MN-South Beltrami MN-
841 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BELTRAMI COUNTY
UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 840 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Saum, or 26 miles north of Bemidji, moving east at 35
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Blackduck around 855 PM CDT.
  Shooks around 900 PM CDT.
  Funkley around 905 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4776 9482 4794 9478 4792 9442 4770 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 279DEG 29KT 4785 9469

Rick