Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
648 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across our northern
counties. Much of the lightning so far has been north of the
Canadian border, but cloud tops of the cells entering the Devils
Lake basin have been cooling so think there should be an increase
in activity there. Will continue to keep an eye on the storms
developing in that area as effective bulk shear is around 40 kts
and localized surface CAPE is good, but think the better chances
will be later tonight as the main shortwave comes out into the
Northern Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

The main short term concerns are thunder potential tonight and
fire weather and thunder potential again on Sunday.

After the clouds have mainly pushed east of the FA, temperatures
have been rebounding quickly. Gwinner and Cooperstown are now at
97 degrees, which are the FA hot spots. Any lingering shower
activity across the far southeast FA have about ended. There are
some high based echoes showing up from east of Minot to near
Jamestown, but not seeing anything reaching the ground (likely
high based virga). The latest high resolution guidance seems to
favor the late evening into the overnight as the best chance for
thunderstorms. Storms look to develop over eastern Montana by mid
evening...then they are expected to lift northeast, potentially
reaching the Devils Lake region either by late evening or
overnight. SPC has the Devils Lake region and northern Valley in a
slight risk for severe weather in response to this.

The overnight activity should begin to push out of the FA Sunday
morning. There could be some lingering cloud cover associated with
these storms early on, but another warm day is expected
thereafter, especially to the east of the Valley. Dewpoints in the
upper 50s to around 60 will remain over the FA, but they will be
pushed eastward by a cold front. This front will be the focus for
additional storm development in the afternoon, potentially from
Fergus Falls to Baudette. Some high resolution models fire storms
east of this area too, so confidence in these Sunday storms is
fairly low. Behind the front, mainly over eastern North Dakota,
west to northwest winds will kick up, along with decreasing
dewpoints. Afternoon minimum humidity readings may dip to around
20 or so over portions of eastern North Dakota, so have
coordinated with Bismarck to go with a Fire Weather Watch for
those areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

For Monday...the upper wave lifts northeast toward Hudson Bay
allowing the upper ridge rebound...although temperatures will remain
a little cooler to start the work week.

Monday night though Thursday...a series of waves rotate around the
periphery of the ridge bringing chances again for some scattered
showers. On Friday...a more vigorous system will bring cooler and
more seasonable temperatures...along with increased chances of
showers and storms. High pressure and more pleasant conditions
settle in on Saturday to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

VFR conditions at all TAF sites, although some VCTS activity has
started around KDVL, ceilings remain 10000 ft or above.
Thunderstorm activity is possible at most of the northern TAF
sites tonight, but at this point mainly KDVL should be affected so
just have a mention there and will leave it out further east.
Winds will be mainly from the south to southwest, although there
will be some variation at KDVL thanks to thunderstorm activity.
A cold front coming in tomorrow morning and pushing from west to
east later in the day will shift winds to a westerly direction,
with some gusts over 20 kts possible.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...None.

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
243 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-061945-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
243 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions will continue into the
early evening, due to hot, dry conditions. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible late this evening into the overnight
hours, particularly within the Devils Lake basin and the northern
Red River Valley. Some storms may bring 75 mph wind gusts and one
inch hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Critical fire weather conditions will again be possible Sunday
behind a cold front within portions of North Dakota. There is
also a chance for strong thunderstorms within northwest and west-
central Minnesota, mainly from Baudette to Bemidji to Fergus
Falls.

For Monday through Thursday, there are slight chances for
thunderstorms but the probability for widespread hazardous
weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
724 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

NDZ007-008-015-054-060130-
Pembina ND-Western Walsh County ND-Ramsey ND-Cavalier ND-
724 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CAVALIER...
NORTHEASTERN RAMSEY...NORTHWESTERN WALSH AND NORTHWESTERN PEMBINA
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 724 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Nekoma, or 11 miles south of Langdon, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hove Mobile Park around 730 PM CDT.
  Osnabrock around 740 PM CDT.
  Milton around 745 PM CDT.
  Olga around 755 PM CDT.
  Concrete around 800 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4879 9727 4833 9856 4858 9873 4900 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 234DEG 36KT 4859 9839

JR