Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2021
Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this special weather statement at May 22, 2021, 4:47 AM CDT for Griggs County, Nelson County, North Dakota. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 22, 2021, 4:47 AM CDT (09:47 UTC)
- Expired
- May 22, 2021, 5:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 43 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
Counties Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 209 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 608 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 59 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 129 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 296 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.7
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 22, 3:55 AM CDT, 52 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 22, 3:55 AM CDT, 52 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 355 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Look for increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms today along a stalled cold front. Weather related impacts are possible for portions of southeastern North Dakota and west-central Minnesota in association with isolated strong thunderstorms. Coverage is expected to be minimal, with isolated wind gusts and hail being the primary risk. Soundings indicate MUCAPE upwards of 1500 J/Kg this afternoon, with deep layer shear of 50 to 60 knots. Primary impacts today would be from potential wind and hail associated with severe thunderstorms. Temperatures today will range from the upper 40s in the Devils Lake Basin to the middle 80s for the southern Red River Valley. This extreme gradient will allow further development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the thermal boundary, draped from Gwinner, ND to Bemidji, MN. Lows tonight will continue to show the divide in temperatures, with low 40s to upper 50s expected. Additional thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for Sunday as an upper low approaches the region. Showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours are expected to be isolated, with little in the way of severe potential. Better forcing and instability during the afternoon and evening will give us a chance for severe thunderstorms, however. High temperatures for Sunday range from the low 60s to the upper 70s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Impacts in the extended time frame will revolve around precip chances which do exist over the next week just not expecting any widespread rainfall as upper flow transitions from SW to NW aloft. Sunday night will see the next round of chance of rainfall with upper wave positioned to the NW and a decaying line of convection expected to move into the western portions of the FA. With upper support to the NW and dry easterly stable air feeding into the line will see a weakening trend as chances spread into the valley and NW MN. Some redevelopment is possible Monday afternoon along the front across the MN lakes and pines before the front pushes east of the area. The temperature roller coaster will continue with 80s on Monday giving way to the upper trough and cold frontal passage Tuesday with highs in the 60s and 70s. This front will bring another round of rain chances mainly for areas along and north of hwy 200 Tuesday. Cooler temps are in store for Wednesday through Friday with NW flow aloft with temps mainly in the 60s with low 70s possible by Friday. Some ensemble guidance does bring a short wave system across SD Wednesday night into Thursday morning with precip chances extending across E ND and into NW and west central MN with the highest chance currently along the SD/ND border. Instability remains rather weak with the mid week system and will keep it just showers for now with the possibility of introducing thunder if needed in later forecasts. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021 Didn't see much change with the 00z model runs to give any different ideas for the 06z TAFs. The surface front continues to sag southward...at about 10 to 15 knots. The front is pretty much on the doorstep of KFAR. Therefore, expect IFR ceilings at every TAF site except KBJI overnight, and KBJI could lower to MVFR sometime by morning or so. Once the ceilings roll in, it appears they will be here to stay, along with the north winds. Tried to narrow down a 1-3 hour window when the best chances for showers and storms will be at KDVL/KGFK/KTVF overnight into early Saturday. Don't think they will affect KFAR or KBJI at this point. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. SHORT TERM...Lynch LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...Godon
Hazardous weather outlook, May 22, 4:13 AM CDT, 34 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 413 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 MNZ002-003-009-015>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ039-049-052-053- 230915- Norman-Clay-North Beltrami-East Polk-North Clearwater- South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker- East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant- Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- 413 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated severe severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Red River Valley and west central Minnesota this afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be large hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters may be needed. MNZ001-004>008-013-014-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054- 230915- West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall- East Marshall-Pennington-Red Lake-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson- Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill- Barnes-Western Walsh- 413 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this morning, mainly across northeastern North Dakota and the northern Red River Valley. The main hazards will be small hail and gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters may be needed.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 22, 4:47 AM CDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
447 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021
NDZ014-015-024-026-028-221030-
Griggs ND-Nelson ND-Eddy ND-Benson ND-Ramsey ND-
447 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 445 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Grace City to Mchenry to 6
miles northeast of Courtenay. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph along with dime sized hail will be
possible with these storms.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Mose around 450 AM CDT.
Red Willow Lake around 455 AM CDT.
Tolna and Hamar around 505 AM CDT.
Jessie, Pekin and Binford around 510 AM CDT.
Bartlett around 520 AM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.
&&
LAT...LON 4817 9841 4812 9803 4768 9788 4767 9789
4767 9799 4761 9798 4727 9845 4745 9850
4759 9850 4759 9854 4763 9855 4766 9887
TIME...MOT...LOC 0945Z 215DEG 43KT 4764 9869 4760 9859 4731 9851
JKThe office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 6:06 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | FGF | Griggs | 39 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.