Fire Weather Watch 8, NWS Grand Forks, ND

534 
WWUS83 KFGF 160110
RFWFGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
810 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-160215-
/O.EXP.KFGF.FW.A.0008.000000T0000Z-210816T0100Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
810 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS EXPIRED FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
GUSTY WINDS FOR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

Winds have decreased and relative humidity values have started to
rise.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
627 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Hot and increasingly humid conditions prevail today, as
southwesterly flow brings higher dew points into the region.
Southwesterly winds will increase through the midday and into the
afternoon, with gusts as high as 30 mph. The main impacts today
surround an increased fire danger remaining in place for portions of
west-central and northwest Minnesota, along with a chance for
isolated thunderstorms for portions of mainly eastern North Dakota.

Temperatures remained rather warm overnight, with widespread upper
60s and low 70s during the pre-dawn hours. This will provide a
favorable launch point for afternoon highs that could approach the
century mark for the Devils Lake Basin, and mid to upper 90s
elsewhere. The combination of hot surface temperatures and
increasing dew points will allow MLCAPE to increase this afternoon,
albeit with very little forcing. A very weak boundary remains draped
across the CWA from southwest to northeast, which could provide
enough focus for isolated thunderstorms during the mid to late
afternoon. Soundings indicate good low level lapse rates thanks to
most locations approaching the convective initiation temperature. In
the event that a thunderstorm forms, there is enough support in the
soundings to allow a mention of hail and gusty winds; however,
coverage will be minimal if at all.

As the ridge axis approaches late this afternoon, we could see a
return of mid to upper level smoke to the region. Guidance keeps it
suspended at the mid levels or higher initially, then works it
toward the upper reaches of the boundary layer heading into Monday.
If this transpires, it will impact both our air quality and the
upper extent of Monday's high temperatures, which are expected to
approach the middle to upper 90s once more.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Forecast challenge will be timing of thunderstorm chances.  Over the
past 24-48 hours, model consensus has been to delay the front and
keep the area in the hot/humid sector Wednesday.  ECMWF/GEM had this
solution 2 days ago and GFS is picking up on this as well.  But
still the operational GFS is a bit faster with front eastward Wed
night vs what most GEFS members show and what EMCWF/GEM show.  Due
to continued discrepancies NBM will show chances for t-storms
near the Canadian border Tues night into Wednesday and spreading
east Wed night. ECMWF in particular would delay this. I suspect
the slower solution will be more correct as 500 mb trough digs
deeper southward over Idaho and ridge holds to our east. Best
t-storm chances look to come later Thursday or into Friday but
long range models diverge significantly in strength of 500 mb
trough as it moves over the area with ECMWF/GEM stronger and
wetter, esp western fcst area, vs GFS. Net result will be a
prolonged period of high chance pops Thu-Fri and into Saturday.
Instability is out ahead of the main front where CAPES of up to
1500 j/kg will occur Tues/Wed in the aftn/eve but 700 mb temps
quite warm. With main trough moves through instability is less.
Therefore severe chances is very uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites through the period. South
to southwest winds will increase during the midday through the
early evening, with gusts up to 25 knots. As these winds build
above the surface, LLWS is likely during the late morning, then
during the late evening. Mid to upper level smoke begins to work
back into the region during the overnight hours and into Monday
morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Lynch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
608 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054-161115-
Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh-
608 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible through the
midday through early evening hours. Isolated strong thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon. Coverage will be minimal.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms return to the area next week starting Wednesday,
with a chance for potentially strong storms across portions of the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-161115-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
608 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Given the extremely dry fuels in many areas, near critical fire
weather conditions are expected for the afternoon and early
evening hours. Any fire that does develop has the potential to
quickly spread.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms return to the area next week starting Wednesday,
with a chance for potentially strong storms across portions of the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
405 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-151515-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada,
Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster,
Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle,
Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah,
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh,
Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush,
Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake,
Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids,
Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Perham,
New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena,
Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, and Barrett
405 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

Given the extremely dry fuels in many areas, near critical fire
weather conditions are expected for the afternoon and early
evening hours. Any fire that does develop has the potential to
quickly spread.

Most locations will experience relative humidity values of 25 to
35 percent along with south to southwest wind of 15 to 25 mph.