Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
254 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

A sizable area of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms in advance
of an approaching cold front will continue pushing southeastward
through the afternoon. As expected, convective intensity has
subsided substantially as compared to this morning when this
activity was pushing across Alabama and Tennessee. Instability is
quite low (generally 250 J/kg or less MUCAPE) and more supportive
shear continues to lift northeastward out of the area. Thus, the
severe threat is quite low through the remainder of the afternoon,
though a gusty storm remains possible over the next few hours,
mainly across southwest portions of the area where instability is
slightly higher.

The cold front will push across north Georgia this afternoon and
evening and into central Georgia overnight. Any lingering showers
will end by this evening across north Georgia and gradually lessen
across central Georgia as frontal forcing weakens and upper support
diminishes further. As colder air filters in behind the front,
morning lows will be noticeably more winter-like across north
Georgia. Freezing temperatures are likely across far north Georgia
where skies will be largely clear, and mid-30s are forecast as far
south as the Atlanta metro.

The front will pull up stationary across south-central Georgia on
Tuesday. Largely overcast conditions will thus persist across
central Georgia with any vestiges of clearer skies in north Georgia
Tuesday morning gradually ending as clouds push back north through
the day. This will be in advance of an upper perturbation
approaching in the southwest flow aloft for late Tuesday. Scattered
light rain showers will again increase initially across central
Georgia Tuesday afternoon and lift northward Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Highs Tuesday will run a few degrees below normal
for a change, mainly in the 50s.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

The extended period is characterized by an active weather pattern
bringing some much needed rainfall to the forecast area as portions
of north and central Georgia have been experiencing abnormally dry
conditions this fall. On Wednesday, only widespread showers are
anticipated through the afternoon since instability remains weak as
an upper level shortwave approaches the area. The shortwave is
superimposed over a stalled surface frontal boundary set up across
central Georgia that reinforces moisture at the lower levels of the
atmosphere. GFS progged PWATs hovering around 1.0" to 1.35", which
have backed off slightly from previous runs. Drier air sneaks in
behind the front, but only for a brief period of time during
northwesterly flow through the early morning hours of Thursday.
Westerly flow aloft coupled with a southerly flow component at the
surface allows moisture to be pumped into the region priming the
atmosphere for a chance at more precipitation to develop along the
surface frontal boundary draped over Georgia on Friday morning.

By this weekend, the upper level pattern becomes more active as a
longwave trough traverses the Great Plains and digs southward,
amplifying from the Great Lakes Region through the ArkLaTex by
Saturday afternoon. Global model guidance indicate better
agreement in the longwave trough retaining its positive tilt in
more recent runs as it approaches northwest Georgia Saturday,
though the Euro and Canadian solutions have a cut off low
developing at the upper levels. Progged PWATs surge up to 1.65"
with chance to likely PoPs anticipated across north and central
Georgia Saturday evening through Sunday. At this time, progged
MUCAPE approaches 500 J/kg across patchy areas of north and
central Georgia, with most of the instability remaining to our
southwest outside of the forecast area. As of now, given weak and
broad coverage of sufficient instability for our area,
thunderstorms are limited to slight chance. Additionally, warm
temperatures ahead of the cold front (high temperatures in the 70s
across much of the forecast area) as well as abundant moisture
surging from the Gulf of Mexico thanks to the southerly flow at
the surface, will result in the possibility of any isolated
thunderstorms bringing periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
This system will need to be monitored in future forecasts
especially with respect to model trends in the orientation of the
trough axis that will ultimately play a role in severe weather
potential for this weekend. Monday, it remains to be seen whether
or not conditions will remain dry as models disagree over the
timing of trough/potential cut off low exiting the region.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Area of shra and embedded tsra will affect ATL area sites
primarily between 18-20z. Shra expected between 20-00Z at other
sites. Cigs will largely remain MVFR through this evening in the
1200-2500 ft range. Improvement to VFR expected at ATL/AHN sites
after 00-02z with lower cigs remaining at CSG/MCN overnight. SW
winds 8-12kts with intermittent gusts up to 15-20kts become NW
this evening and overnight with an eventual shift to NE and E
after 13-15Z Tuesday at speeds 4-7kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on afternoon cigs.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  56  41  57 /  30  10  40  40
Atlanta         38  55  45  58 /  20  20  50  40
Blairsville     28  52  36  51 /  10  10  40  30
Cartersville    33  54  41  55 /  10  10  40  30
Columbus        44  57  48  64 /  50  30  40  50
Gainesville     38  53  41  55 /  10  10  40  40
Macon           46  60  46  64 /  40  30  40  50
Rome            33  54  40  57 /  10  10  40  30
Peachtree City  37  56  44  59 /  20  20  50  40
Vidalia         54  64  51  67 /  20  30  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1109 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071615-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1109 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Any
stronger storms would of producing locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, especially across western portions of Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday. Any
storms that develop will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested, but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
258 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

GAZ079>081-091-093-062030-
Macon GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-Crawford GA-Talbot GA-
258 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Macon,
northeastern Marion, west central Crawford, southeastern Talbot and
Taylor Counties through 330 PM EST...

At 258 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was near Junction City, or 9
miles south of Talbotton, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Reynolds, Ideal, Junction City, Geneva, Baldwinville, Rupert,
Charing, Oakland, Potterville, Mauk, Howard, Marion Estates, Wesley
Church and Fickling Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3239 8432 3240 8432 3240 8437 3243 8436
      3243 8438 3242 8438 3241 8440 3245 8457
      3263 8456 3271 8411 3256 8408 3235 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 271DEG 38KT 3254 8448

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH