Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
144 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.UPDATE...
For 18z TAFs/Aviation. See discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 740 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

A broad upper trough over the MS Valley will amplify through the
short term...becoming a closed upper low by the end of the period.
This will leave GA in a south to southwest flow aloft with deep Gulf
moisture streaming across the area. Models hint at a couple of
impulses moving through the trough across GA. We can expect showers
and thunderstorms to become widespread over north and central GA
during the day and continue into Monday. With marginal instability
due mostly to cloudiness and showers...expect that any thunderstorms
that develop should stay below severe limits. With no change in
airmass and prolonged periods of rainfall over the upcoming
days...there could be a flash flood threat for much of the area. A
Hydrologic Outlook was issued Saturday evening...but still a bit
early for any potential Flash Flood Watch. This will continue to be
monitored.

41

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

No significant changes to the extended forecast trends. Period
remains dominated by the large cut-off upper low over the middle/
lower Mississippi Valley. The region spends most of the upcoming
week under the southwesterly upper flow ahead of the low. Ample
moisture and lift under the southwesterly flow for repeated rounds
of rainfall through the workweek. Low begins filling and lifting
northeast by the weekend with diminishing rainfall likely.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Unsettled pattern expected through the next 24 to 36 hours with a
series of upr lvl waves bringing periods of SHRA/TSRA to the area.
Low lapse rates will limit TS coverage through tonight. IFR to
MVFR ceilings expected to develop and cover much of west-central
and north GA later tonight with another round of rain/few storms
expected to overspread the area by midday Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium in ceilings.
Medium in limited TS potential this PM.
High all other elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          82  65  78  64 /  40  40  70  60
Atlanta         79  66  77  65 /  40  50  70  60
Blairsville     72  61  73  59 /  70  70  60  70
Cartersville    77  65  77  64 /  60  60  50  60
Columbus        82  67  80  67 /  30  40  70  70
Gainesville     77  64  75  64 /  40  50  70  60
Macon           86  66  82  65 /  20  30  70  60
Rome            77  65  79  64 /  90  50  40  60
Peachtree City  80  65  78  64 /  40  50  80  70
Vidalia         87  68  85  68 /  10  10  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...DJN.83

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1110 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-041515-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1110 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia this afternoon and tonight, with locally heavy
rain, occasional lightning, and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia Monday through Friday. These storms are expected
to produce heavy rain, especially Monday through Wednesday, which
could lead to localized flash flooding and river flooding
concerns. Thunderstorms will also be capable of producing
occasional lightning and gusty winds.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
with occasional lightning and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
230 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021

GAZ093-031900-
Macon GA-
230 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Macon County
through 300 PM EDT...

At 229 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Whitewater State Park,
or near Oglethorpe, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
         hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by
         lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
         especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Oglethorpe, Montezuma, Marshallville, Ideal, Whitewater State Park,
Garden Valley, Winchester, Bartlett and Hicks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3235 8421 3244 8417 3250 8413 3251 8411
      3251 8407 3253 8405 3253 8402 3252 8400
      3252 8404 3251 8403 3250 8403 3251 8399
      3251 8398 3244 8384 3226 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 211DEG 9KT 3237 8408

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH