Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
136 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

...Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1202 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021/

UPDATE...

No major changes to the overnight forecast. Low clouds across the
metro have been relatively slow to lift. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
across the area the rest of this morning through the evening with
potential for some lingering showers overnight.

Reaves

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 730 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
GA will remain on the southern fringes of a Great Lakes upper trough
through the short term. A frontal boundary had stalled across
central GA and remained in place this morning. Some weak instability
lingered along the boundary this morning and radar was showing
isolated showers trying to develop across central GA. This boundary
may tend to drift back north through the short term as a couple of
waves move along it. Have left most pops in the chance category
today diminishing to slight chance overnight. Models indicate
another push of deep tropical moisture from the Gulf on Wednesday.
So at this time likely pops across central GA looks
reasonable...with chance pops elsewhere. Looking at general thunder
each day with severe weather not expected. Some patchy fog expected
this morning and have continued fog wording in the forecast.

41

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
The extended forecast begins with the stalled frontal boundary and
the tropical wave over the state bringing precip to the region.
Precipitation from this tropical wave could be fairly significant
as the models continue to show Precipitable water values
increasing across central GA Wed/Thu into the 1.7" to 2.0" range.
Instability indices also increase a bit but not to substantially.
Still looking for this to be mainly a heavy rain event through Thu
evening. By Wed night the upper level trough centered over the
Great Lake states will have pushed south into the southern states
along with a second surface frontal boundary pushing into NW GA.
The second and much drier cold front moves into NW GA late Wed
into Thu morning and pushes the old stalled boundary and the
tropical wave south and east across the state. The deep layer
moisture and the closed low center associated with the tropical
wave move off the GA/SC coast Friday morning. This allows for a
drier airmass to move into the region for the weekend and into
early next week. Things do not completely dry out so we will still
see some slight chance PoPs mainly across central GA Sat through
Mon.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly MVFR/VFR cigs across the area, although VFR cigs are
expected through the afternoon and evening. SHRA/TSRA possible at
all taf sites through this evening with some lingering SHRA
possible in the early overnight hours. Have included TEMPOS at all
sites for the TSRA and VCSH for lingering SHRA. Some patchy fog
and IFR cigs will be possible across all sites in the early
morning hours. Winds should be E to SE today at less than 10kts
with light to calm SE winds overnight. Winds should shift WSW by
Wednesday afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on morning cigs. Medium to high confidence on all other
elements.

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          85  69  84  68 /  40  30  50  30
Atlanta         86  70  84  68 /  50  30  50  20
Blairsville     79  64  81  60 /  40  30  30  20
Cartersville    84  69  84  65 /  40  20  30  20
Columbus        90  71  86  70 /  40  20  70  40
Gainesville     83  69  82  67 /  50  30  40  20
Macon           91  71  87  70 /  40  20  70  40
Rome            87  69  86  66 /  30  20  30  20
Peachtree City  87  69  85  67 /  50  30  60  30
Vidalia         92  73  88  72 /  40  30  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Reaves

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
245 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across north and central
Georgia this afternoon through late evening. Some of these storms
could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday for portions of
north and central Georgia, becoming more confined to portions of
central Georgia for Thursday through Monday. Storms will occur
primarily in the afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could
produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
254 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

GAZ032-033-043-044-071930-
North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-South Fulton GA-
254 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Cobb,
northeastern Douglas and southwestern Fulton Counties through 330 PM
EDT...

At 253 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms extended from Cascade
Heights to near Campbellton, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, pea sized hail, frequent lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain will cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Smyrna, East Point, Union City, College Park, Fairburn,
Hapeville, Midtown, Sweetwater Creek State Park, West End, Turner
Field, Bankhead, Six Flags Over Georgia, Cascade Heights,
Campbellton, Bolton, Sandtown, Atlantic Station and Mableton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3375 8467 3386 8439 3373 8438 3365 8443
      3364 8445 3365 8446 3360 8446 3357 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 212DEG 7KT 3373 8448 3363 8464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH