Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1040 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.UPDATE...

No changes planned for the forecast.

41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 520 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Outer rain bands from TD Ira will continue to advect into the area
today and aside from the flash flood threat from training of highly
efficient showers in this high PWAT tropical airmass, the other main
threat will be with isolated tornadoes in the more convective bands.
There is plenty of favorable low level shear given this helicity
rich regime, though more uncertainty on what conditional instability
can be attained to aid updrafts or vorticity stretching. Progged
MLCAPE could have areas of near 1000 J/kg which would be enough to
raise concern and any scattering of clouds could locally enhance the
destabilization. Sig Tor Parameter not overly impressive but does
have some indicating near 1.0. The hi-res CAMs have some
consensus on two main band features. The first one looks to hold
onto what is currently tracking east near Birmingham which would
push eastward into the western CWA around 8 or 9 AM this morning
progressing further eastward into the afternoon. A possible
reforming second main band could push across the area late
afternoon into the evening. Any other band(s) could quickly
develop between such features as well so don't want to pinpoint
too much. SPC did expand their Day 1 Slight Risk, which now covers
the majority of the CWA.

We did do some southeastward expansion of the previous Flash Flood
Watch given the updated QPF, which now does include the Atlanta
Metro area. Still thinking 3-5 inches possible with locally higher
and this watch goes from 8 AM this morning until Wed. afternoon.

Wednesday should be more benign as system phases NE with upper
trough, though what could be a secondary lobe of PVA and other push
on the back side of system will still keep some chance pops for
showers or storms before we finally get a drier ridged regime in the
long term. Not expecting any severe/tornadic development Wed given
much weaker shear params.

High temps quite limited today and Wednesday with values only in the
upper 70s to low 80s for most locations.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

By Wednesday evening, the last of what's left of Ida should be
clearing the area. Some lingering Pops are possible, especially in
NE Georgia. The GFS indicates that lingering moisture will still be
possible across far NE GA going into Thursday morning, but the ECMWF
wraps a substantial amount of dry air around the back side of Ida.
This uncertainty has resulted in some lingering precip early
Thursday morning but by Thursday afternoon the entire CWA should be
in the clear.

A strong high pressure ridge will crest in the upper great lakes,
setting up a strong NW flow pattern that will give us a break from
afternoon convection for the remainder of the week and into the
weekend. Temperatures will be around seasonal with highs in the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will dip down into the low
60s making for some pleasant late summer evenings.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Rain bands continue to move in from the west with the remnants of
Ida. Mainly IFR cigs at most sites that could linger for much of
the day at KATL and nearby sites with possible low end MVFR
improvement elsewhere. Could have two periods of more convective
bands pushing through with greater chance of TSRA so have tempo
14-18z and prob30 21-01z to cover for KATL and nearby sites with
some other timing differences elsewhere. MVFR vsbys possible with
SHRA/TSRA as well. SE winds increasing 12-15 kts today with gusts
20-26 kts. Winds could be a bit greater or VRB with any TSRA. KATL
looks to have SSW shift by near 02z Wed but could be sooner. Late
period could have LIFR cigs near 400 ft by 05z Wed for most sites
that could linger into Wednesday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on overall TSRA timing/potential.
Medium on cigs this afternoon and overnight.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          82  70  80  66 /  80  80  50  10
Atlanta         78  70  78  65 /  90  80  40   5
Blairsville     73  66  74  59 / 100  90  70  10
Cartersville    78  69  79  63 / 100  80  40   5
Columbus        81  71  83  67 /  90  80  40   5
Gainesville     77  70  79  64 /  90  90  50  10
Macon           82  72  83  67 /  80  60  40  10
Rome            79  70  82  64 / 100  80  40   5
Peachtree City  78  70  80  64 /  90  80  40   5
Vidalia         90  75  85  71 /  40  40  50  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for the following
zones: Bartow...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...
Cobb...Coweta...Dade...Dawson...Douglas...Fannin...Floyd...
Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...Haralson...Heard...Lumpkin...
Murray...North Fulton...Paulding...Pickens...Polk...South
Fulton...Towns...Union...Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1050 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-011200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1050 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of north Georgia
through tonight.

The remnants of Ida will continue to move across the area through
tonight. Showers and a few thunderstorms will result in periods of
heavy rain and gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph. Higher wind gusts and
even a few brief tornadoes are also possible in the more organized
storms later today into this evening.

An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain can be expected through this
evening, with locally higher amounts. An elevated flood threat will
exist through Wednesday as creeks and streams respond to the heavy
rain and runoff. Please stay tuned to the latest forecast for more
information, and be prepared to act quickly if a warning is issued
for your area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Storm chances diminish Wednesday but ongoing flood issues may be
occurring due to today's heavy rain.

The next chance for scattered thunderstorms return to parts of the
area by the end of this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1213 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ049-059-060-072-073-082>084-311645-
Wilkinson GA-Morgan GA-Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Bibb GA-Jones GA-
Jasper GA-Twiggs GA-
1213 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
WILKINSON, WESTERN BALDWIN, EAST CENTRAL BIBB, SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN,
NORTHWESTERN TWIGGS, PUTNAM, EASTERN JONES AND EASTERN JASPER
COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM EDT...

At 1213 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Shady Dale to near Huber...and moving northeast
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Milledgeville, Eatonton, Madison, Gray, Gordon, Ivey, Shady Dale,
Buckhead, Midway-Hardwick, Meriwether, Postell, Bradley, Allenwood,
Mountain Springs, Griswoldville, Resseaus Crossroads, Central Georgia
Experiment Stn, Plant Harlee Branch, Browns Crossing and Ethridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3263 8351 3344 8362 3363 8336 3361 8335
      3360 8335 3358 8332 3321 8327 3319 8327
      3302 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 206DEG 40KT 3336 8357 3274 8352

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1227 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ073-074-083>085-096-097-108>111-311700-
Wilkinson GA-Washington GA-Wheeler GA-Baldwin GA-Telfair GA-
Johnson GA-Wilcox GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-Twiggs GA-
1227 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LAURENS, WILKINSON,
EASTERN BALDWIN, CENTRAL DODGE, EASTERN TWIGGS, TELFAIR, SOUTHEASTERN
WILCOX, NORTHEASTERN BLECKLEY, SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, WEST CENTRAL
JOHNSON AND NORTHWESTERN WHEELER COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EDT...

At 1227 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Myricks Mill to near Cadwell to near
Temperance...and moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Milledgeville, Dublin, McRae, Alamo, Jeffersonville, Irwinton,
Helena, East Dublin, Gordon, Chester, Ivey, Milan, McIntyre, Dexter,
Dudley, Cadwell, Toomsboro, Rhine, Scotland and Chauncey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3178 8303 3180 8308 3181 8309 3181 8314
      3182 8314 3182 8315 3185 8318 3185 8324
      3224 8312 3273 8344 3313 8316 3254 8273
      3180 8285 3178 8289 3179 8290 3178 8292
      3179 8298 3178 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 217DEG 33KT 3282 8336 3231 8306 3188 8319

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1243 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ025-027-035>038-047-049-050-060-061-072-073-084-311715-
Morgan GA-Putnam GA-Walton GA-Hancock GA-Jones GA-Madison GA-
Wilkinson GA-Jackson GA-Barrow GA-Baldwin GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-
Greene GA-Oconee GA-
1243 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL HANCOCK,
CLARKE, SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON, EAST CENTRAL JONES, SOUTHWESTERN
MADISON, OCONEE, NORTHWESTERN WILKINSON, BALDWIN, SOUTHEASTERN
BARROW, CENTRAL MORGAN, PUTNAM, NORTHEASTERN WALTON, WESTERN GREENE
AND WESTERN OGLETHORPE COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

At 1243 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Ebenezer to near Greshamville to near Greenberry
Crossroads...and moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Milledgeville, Jefferson, Eatonton, Madison, Greensboro,
Watkinsville, Athens, Statham, Gordon, Arcade, Nicholson,
Winterville, Bogart, Ivey, North High Shoals, Bostwick, Arnoldsville,
Good Hope, Maxeys and Bishop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3416 8357 3400 8318 3316 8314 3283 8337
      3289 8340 3354 8341 3373 8370
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 200DEG 42KT 3372 8359 3362 8338 3297 8338

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
100 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ061-073>076-084>086-097-311730-
Wilkinson GA-Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Baldwin GA-Hancock GA-
Glascock GA-Emanuel GA-Johnson GA-Laurens GA-
100 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LAURENS,
EASTERN WILKINSON, EASTERN BALDWIN, NORTHWESTERN EMANUEL, CENTRAL
HANCOCK, SOUTHWESTERN GLASCOCK, WASHINGTON, JOHNSON AND SOUTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

At 100 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Underwood to Minter...and moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dublin, Sandersville, Wrightsville, Sparta, Irwinton, East Dublin,
Davisboro, Tennille, Harrison, Toomsboro, Oconee, Deepstep,
Riddleville, Kite, Hamburg State Park, Spann, Downs, Beulah, Pringle
and Minter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3272 8237 3243 8284 3280 8317 3311 8317
      3344 8292 3344 8289 3328 8278 3327 8278
      3326 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 216DEG 41KT 3315 8311 3248 8278

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
115 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ002>004-311745-
Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-
115 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CATOOSA,
NORTHWESTERN WHITFIELD AND CENTRAL WALKER COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM
EDT...

At 115 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Noble, or near
Lafayette...moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
         localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Ringgold, Fort Oglethorpe, Chickamauga, Varnell, Tunnel Hill,
Cohutta, Naomi, Noble, Wood Station, Indian Springs, Graysville, Blue
Spring, Boynton, Beaumont and Rock Spring.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3499 8489 3465 8515 3474 8535 3499 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 206DEG 32KT 3477 8522

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
118 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ024-027-036>038-050-311745-
Madison GA-Banks GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Greene GA-Oconee GA-
118 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OCONEE,
SOUTHEASTERN BANKS, EASTERN CLARKE, CENTRAL GREENE, OGLETHORPE AND
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

At 118 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Pocataligo to Reynolds at Lake Oconee...and
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Greensboro, Danielsville, Lexington, Union Point, Comer, Winterville,
Crawford, Colbert, Arnoldsville, Ila, Woodville, Carlton, Maxeys,
Hull, Athens-Clarke County, Stephens, Diamond Hill, Smithonia,
Hutchings and Barnett Shoals.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3426 8334 3424 8334 3426 8330 3425 8327
      3424 8317 3427 8311 3426 8312 3423 8308
      3417 8310 3415 8306 3373 8297 3340 8324
      3342 8324 3344 8326 3345 8326 3346 8327
      3354 8327 3355 8328 3427 8338 3428 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 204DEG 35KT 3425 8335 3341 8324

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH