Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
145 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

.UPDATE...

No changes to the forecast at this time...except to remove fog
wording for the morning.

41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 516 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Increased to chance pops today across most of north GA and west
central GA given expected extent of outer moisture field of Ida and
some waves of possible convective triggering for this
afternoon/evening followed by an expected lull in coverage. The main
focus, though will be late tonight through Tuesday as the remnants
and associated helicity rich low levels push into portions of the
area as the center of Ida tracks more NEWD into the TN Valley. Outer
rain bands and possible convective training start to ramp up during
the early morning hours Tuesday and could continue through Tuesday
night and even linger into Wednesday along the backside of the
system. Any precip will be very efficient given the tropical high +2
inch PWAT airmass and the latest QPF has 2-5 inches in parts of
north GA. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch accordingly. Aside from
the heavy rain/flooding threat, will need to watch for isolated
tornadoes or enhanced downdraft wind gusts along the convective
bands. The greater helicity and Sig Tor Param values start to
increase in the west for Tuesday morning then spread across most of
the area  will be across the area by afternoon/evening. Some
marginal MLCAPE pushes in from the SW also so almost any part of the
CWA could see the isolated severe or tornado threat. SPC does have
the CWA in a Day 2 Slight to Marginal Risk accordingly.

Baker

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

The long term forecast will begin with the remnants of Ida as it
moves through the far northern part of the state. The NHC
indicates that the main bulk of the storm will likely pass off to
the north. Rainfall totals in the northern part of the state could
reach 3-4 inches in the far north with locally higher amounts
possible before clearing out on Thursday.

As the remnants of Ida clear our area on Thursday, it will bring in
northwesterly flow that will dominate the entire southeast through
next weekend. This will provide a break in the humidity and likely
remove the chance for afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures for
Wednesday will max out in the low to mid 80s with higher temps in
the SE before returning to the mid and upper 80s by Friday which is
what we expect this time of year.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Afternoon cumulus should develop sct-bkn030-040 with vcsh possible
most taf sites. Could have lull in precip activity after 02z...then
increase after 08z Tuesday with lowering cigs of MVFR. More
predominant SHRA and IFR ceilings after 12z Tuesday. Scattered tstms
expected late morning Tuesday into the afternoon. Winds south to
southeast 7 to 10 kts this afternoon...diminishing some into the
evening...but becoming gusty southeast after 12z Tuesday. Have
increased winds near 12 kts gusting to 22-25 kts after 12z. eased
SSE winds near 11 kts gusting 20 kts for KATL after 12z Tues.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on timing of shra/tstms mainly late tonight into Tuesday.
Medium to high on all else.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  72  84  70 /  10  20  60  70
Atlanta         89  72  80  69 /  30  40  80  80
Blairsville     85  67  75  65 /  30  40  80  90
Cartersville    89  72  79  69 /  30  60  90  80
Columbus        89  73  83  72 /  40  50  80  70
Gainesville     89  72  80  69 /  20  30  80  80
Macon           92  73  86  72 /  20  20  70  60
Rome            89  72  81  70 /  40  70  90  80
Peachtree City  89  72  80  69 /  30  40  80  70
Vidalia         94  74  92  74 /   5  10  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for the following zones: Bartow...Catoosa...
Chattooga...Cherokee...Dade...Dawson...Fannin...Floyd...Gilmer...
Gordon...Lumpkin...Murray...Pickens...Towns...Union...Walker...
White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1004 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311415-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1004 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Outer rainbands from Tropical Storm Ida will begin to impact
western Georgia this afternoon and into the evening. Locally heavy
rain, and gusty winds will be the primary concern. Isolated
tornadoes are possible late tonight and into the overnight hours
as the system moves closer.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

The remains of Hurricane Ida will move northeast into middle
Tennessee on Tuesday. Periods of heavy rain will be possible in
north Georgia Tuesday morning into Wednesday. Total amounts will
average 2 to 4 inches with local amounts near 5 inches possible. A
Flash Flood Watch has been issued for parts of north Georgia
accordingly. A threat for isolated tornadoes will continue
Tuesday into early Wednesday as outer bands move through. Some
strong wind gusts with stronger storms are possible as well.
Please stay tuned to the latest forecast for more information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
229 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

GAZ011-019-301900-
Chattooga GA-Floyd GA-
229 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLOYD
AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 228 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Holland, or 10 miles
south of Summerville...moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and up to penny sized hail..

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome, Summerville, Trion, Lyerly, Menlo, Coosa, Cloudland, Berryton,
Chattoogaville, James H. Floyd State Park and Holland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3459 8537 3458 8536 3458 8535 3459 8535
      3459 8534 3429 8523 3422 8543 3426 8546
      3459 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 155DEG 16KT 3433 8538

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH