Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
338 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Main forecast concerns late in the short term period are heavy
rainfall and flooding and isolated tornadoes associated with the
remnants of Ida.

Guidance from WPC and 12Z model suite a little higher over north GA
starting Mon night. Most of the heaviest rain will fall on Tuesday.
Total amounts now over 2 inches over most of far north GA and around
4 inches in spots. With tropical systems often see isolated amounts
quite a bit higher than deterministic guidance, so feel good
messaging amounts over 4 inches possible.

Winds should remain under advisory criteria. Tornado threat should
be on the low side but can't rule out something brief over far
western counties after midnight. 12Z HREF mean and probabilities
indicate westcentral GA will have most favorable environment with
STP (sig tornado parameter) values 1.0-2.0 approaching Columbus
after 09Z Monday.

Rest of forecast seems reasonable. Highest coverage of SHRA/TSRA
over west Georgia so far and just a little higher coverage than PoPs
indicated earlier so made minor upward adjustment. Tomorrow
afternoon should see similar coverage of SHRA/TSRA a bit further
east and north then further expansion over NW Georgia Mon night as
the bands associated with Ida's remnants move in.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

The long term period picks up on Tuesday morning when our local
weather will be dominated by the remnants of Ida. As of the current
track forecast from the NHC, Ida is expected to weaken as it travels
inland, crossing northern Mississippi early Tuesday morning
progressing into Alabama/Tennessee and then Kentucky late
Tuesday/early Wednesday. As the storm nears the area on Tuesday and
Wednesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as
well. Rainfall totals for Tuesday and Wednesday are currently around
1 to 2 inches across far north Georgia with some locally higher
amounts around 4 inches possible in the mountains. SPC has also
included a Marginal Risk of severe storms across much of the CWA
for Tuesday as there will be a threat for brief, spin-up tornadoes
associated with the decaying system. In addition, WPC has
portions of far northern Georgia outlooked in a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall on Tuesday, while the rest of the area is in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Overall, heavy rain across
northern Georgia and potential for brief tornadoes will be the two
main threats from this system.

Precipitation due to Ida is expected to clear the area by Wednesday
evening, with winds aloft shifting into a more northwesterly flow.
This will bring drier air across the area, amplified by high
pressure in the mid levels and at the surface through the rest of
the week.

Cooler temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday across
portions of northern and western Georgia due to precipitation and
cloud cover from Ida. Highs are forecast to be in 70s and 80s
across northern and western portions of the area, with lower 90s
elsewhere. For the rest of the week, highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s are expected with lows in the 60s and lower 70s, just a
couple degrees above average.

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions at most sites with periods of MVFR vsbys and gusty
winds due to SHRA/TSRA at KCSG thru 23Z. IFR cigs also expected
after 09Z Mon at KMCN and may spread north into KCSG and ATL
metro airports. SHRA/TSRA again possible Monday afternoon but more
likely over western Georgia. Sfc winds ESE 6-10kts today becoming
light SE then SSE 5-10kts after 15Z Mon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low-Medium confidence on extent of IFR cigs Monday morning.
High confidence on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  90  72  85 /   0  10  20  60
Atlanta         73  88  73  81 /  10  30  40  80
Blairsville     65  84  67  75 /  10  30  40  80
Cartersville    72  87  71  79 /  10  40  50  80
Columbus        72  87  73  83 /  40  40  40  80
Gainesville     70  88  72  79 /   5  20  30  80
Macon           72  90  73  87 /  10  20  20  60
Rome            73  87  73  82 /  20  40  60  90
Peachtree City  71  88  72  81 /  20  30  40  80
Vidalia         72  93  74  92 /   5   5   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
321 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-301930-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
321 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible in western Georgia mainly west
of a Dalton to Douglasville to Cordele line, through 10 PM this
evening. The primary hazards with these storms will be isolated
strong wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

The remains of Hurricane Ida will move northeast into middle
Tennessee on Tuesday. Ahead of the storm, periods of heavy rain will
be possible in north Georgia late Monday into Wednesday. Total
amounts will average 1 to 2 inches with local amounts near 4 inches
possible. Some isolated tornadoes are also possible late Monday
night and Tuesday. Please stay tuned to the latest forecast for more
information.

Thursday through Saturday, isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will be possible with heavy rain, gusty winds and
frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
710 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

GAZ078>080-091-292345-
Harris GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-Talbot GA-
710 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MARION,
TALBOT, WESTERN TAYLOR AND EAST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 745
PM EDT...

At 710 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Oakland, or 10 miles
north of Buena Vista...moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Talbotton, Junction City, Geneva, Brantley, Juniper, Baldwinville,
Baughville, Oakland, Olive Branch, Po Biddy Crossroads, Mauk, Box
Springs, Howard, Marion Estates, Prattsburg, Big Lazer Creek Wma and
Tazewell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3249 8466 3249 8464 3253 8464 3253 8467
      3277 8473 3279 8439 3277 8436 3278 8435
      3276 8434 3276 8432 3243 8437 3241 8439
      3239 8439 3235 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 181DEG 28KT 3247 8449

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
722 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

GAZ093-095-104>106-292345-
Macon GA-Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-Houston GA-
722 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MACON,
DOOLY, SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON, EAST CENTRAL SUMTER AND NORTHWESTERN
CRISP COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 722 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Vienna...moving north
at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cordele, Vienna, Unadilla, Byromville, Pinehurst, Lilly, Dooling,
Georgia Veterans Memorial St Pk, Richwood, Grovania, Elko, Grove
Park, Drayton, Winchester and Henderson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3193 8376 3194 8397 3244 8400 3240 8363
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 185DEG 42KT 3207 8386

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH