Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
315 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Mid/upper-level wave moving northwest across the region, with the
aid of good diurnal heating, remains the primary driving force for
scattered to widespread convection across the area through the short-
term forecast period. Better coverage focused across the southern
and eastern portion of the area into this evening where some aid
from the sea breeze prevails. Models shift better chances north and
west tomorrow afternoon as the main upper trough axis shifts
northwestward. Instability and lapse rates not indicative of
widespread severe thunderstorm threat, but certainly sufficient for
an isolated strong to severe storm late each afternoon into the
early evening. Temperatures continue seasonably warm through the
period.

20

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Persistent active, moist weather pattern continues through the
extended period.

Models continue to show broad swath of moisture over the eastern
CONUS around the periphery of Bermuda ridge. Precipitable water
values increase over the southeast through the weekend with modeled
1.8 to 2.3 inches nearing 100 to 150 percent of normal. Have opted
to keep highest rainfall chances over the south/southeastern CWA
where the moisture/coverage should be highest each afternoon and
evening. Though QPF is manageable, periods of heavy rain can be
expected in storms and totals could accumulated quickly.

Focus through the extended will be the next tropical system progged
to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Deterministic
and ensemble models have very little consensus as this tropical
system emerges out of the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico
by late weekend. The late extended periods are highly dependent on
the ultimate track of this system and changes in what is currently
in the grids through next week are both anticipated and potentially
significant.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions prevail across the forecast area, outside of
scattered convection, through 06Z. Areas of MVFR or lower ceilings
and visibilities develop by 08-10Z. Will likely see some impacts at
all of the TAF sites, however extent and timing remain somewhat
uncertain at this time. Most likely timing would be in the 10Z
through 14Z time period. Most areas back to VFR by 14-16Z. Scattered
afternoon convection expected once again tomorrow, mainly after 18Z.
Winds will remain easterly through the period, generally 5-9kt
through 00Z, diminishing to 4kt or less overnight before increasing
to 4-8kt by 14-15Z tomorrow morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
medium confidence on MVFR/IFR ceilings Thursday morning.
High confidence on all other elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  88  72  89 /  30  40  20  40
Atlanta         75  88  74  88 /  30  40  30  40
Blairsville     65  83  64  84 /  30  60  40  30
Cartersville    72  88  71  90 /  20  50  30  30
Columbus        73  91  73  90 /  40  30  20  60
Gainesville     73  86  73  88 /  30  50  30  30
Macon           72  91  72  90 /  40  30  20  70
Rome            73  89  72  91 /  20  50  30  30
Peachtree City  72  88  71  88 /  30  40  30  50
Vidalia         73  90  73  88 /  40  20  20  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
537 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-262145-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
537 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible this evening
across much of north and central Georgia. A few storms could be
strong to severe with gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and
lightning as the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible each day through
the end of the week. A more diurnal pattern with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms is expected to return for the weekend into
early next week. With any storms that develop, locally heavy
rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
529 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

GAZ078-079-089-090-252200-
Chattahoochee GA-Harris GA-Talbot GA-Muscogee GA-
529 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MUSCOGEE, NORTHEASTERN CHATTAHOOCHEE, SOUTHWESTERN TALBOT AND
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 529 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Box Springs, or 9
miles southwest of Talbotton...moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Waverly Hall, Upatoi, Ellerslie, Flat Rock, Box Springs, Midland,
Kenwood, Juniper, Cataula, Baughville and Olive Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3276 8486 3267 8457 3252 8459 3253 8461
      3253 8463 3249 8464 3250 8465 3249 8466
      3249 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 112DEG 14KT 3259 8465

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
622 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

GAZ025-027-035>039-050-252245-
Wilkes GA-Madison GA-Jackson GA-Barrow GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-
Greene GA-Oconee GA-
622 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OCONEE, SOUTHEASTERN
BARROW, CLARKE, NORTHERN GREENE, SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON, WEST CENTRAL
WILKES, OGLETHORPE AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM
EDT...

At 622 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Lexington to Nicholson...and moving southwest at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Winder, Jefferson, Commerce, Greensboro, Watkinsville, Lexington,
Athens, Statham, Arcade, Nicholson, Union Point, Winterville, Bogart,
Crawford, North High Shoals, Bethlehem, Colbert, Arnoldsville,
Woodville and Siloam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3351 8311 3377 8346 3381 8348 3385 8358
      3388 8358 3388 8362 3391 8364 3391 8365
      3400 8378 3421 8344 3382 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 041DEG 17KT 3383 8302 3413 8342

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
706 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

GAZ058-059-071-072-252330-
Butts GA-Monroe GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
706 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONROE,
SOUTHEASTERN BUTTS, NORTHWESTERN JONES AND SOUTHWESTERN JASPER
COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 706 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Jarrell Plantation, or
12 miles northwest of Gray...moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Forsyth, Wayside, Hillsboro, Dames Ferry, McElheneys Crossroads,
Berner, Round Oak, Juliette, Plant Scherer, Jarrell Plantation and
Collier.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3295 8370 3295 8373 3294 8373 3306 8404
      3333 8376 3308 8356 3293 8370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 152DEG 13KT 3309 8372

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
715 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

GAZ030-031-041-252345-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-Paulding GA-
715 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
PAULDING, HARALSON AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 715 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Eubank Lake, or 10
miles northeast of Buchanan...moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Buchanan, Bremen, Rockmart, Waco, Yorkville, Fish Creek, Draketown,
Felton, Eubank Lake, Antioch and Van Wert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3406 8510 3392 8498 3386 8501 3381 8505
      3369 8512 3369 8513 3370 8513 3369 8517
      3388 8538 3389 8539
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 051DEG 16KT 3393 8509

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
727 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

GAZ034-035-046>049-260000-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Barrow GA-Gwinnett GA-Newton GA-
727 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ROCKDALE, SOUTH CENTRAL BARROW, WEST CENTRAL MORGAN, SOUTHEASTERN
GWINNETT, WALTON AND NORTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM
EDT...

At 725 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Monroe...moving
southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Conyers, Winder, Monroe, Covington, Snellville, Loganville, Social
Circle, Oxford, Walnut Grove, Newborn, Bethlehem, Mansfield, Between,
Good Hope, Jersey, Windsor, Nicholasville, Big Haynes Creek Park,
Pannell and Rosebud.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3391 8364 3389 8363 3388 8361 3388 8360
      3387 8359 3385 8358 3382 8353 3350 8370
      3350 8371 3349 8371 3381 8410 3397 8372
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 034DEG 14KT 3383 8368

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
755 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

GAZ042-052-053-260030-
Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Heard GA-
755 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CARROLL,
NORTHERN HEARD AND NORTHWESTERN COWETA COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

At 755 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Clem, or 7 miles
southeast of Carrollton...moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Carrollton, Whitesburg, Ephesus, Centralhatchee, Roopville, Plant
Yates, Tyus, Powers Crossroads, Roosterville, Seaton Lake, Handy,
Clem, Lowell, Plant Wansley and Blackjack Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3364 8509 3353 8487 3327 8497 3342 8529
      3344 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 026DEG 11KT 3350 8498

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH