Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
303 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Current 500mb analysis shows a weakness in the ridge across the Gulf
Coast States. A flat trough is situated across the Great Lakes and
Mid Mississippi River Valley. The western ridge will retrograde a
bit tomorrow with the trough over the Middle Mississippi River
Valley digging south towards the Gulf States. Water vapor loop shows
tropical moisture being funneled from the remnants of Fred across
the FL peninsula and the GA coast. This axis should begin to shift
westward on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will continue
across the CWA through the period as the western Atlantic ridge
tries to build westward. The remnants of Fred are forecast to remain
offshore through the short term period of the forecast.

Mostly diurnal convection expected this evening. With the tropical
moisture increasing, will leave in a slight chance for the overnight
period. Pops should become more widespread on Sunday as the axis of
tropical moisture shifts westward.

Lapse rates this afternoon are moderately steep across east central
portions of GA. Already had some isolated reports of small hail
within the thunderstorms and expect this trend to continue.
Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few severe
thunderstorms are possible. Expect damaging wind gusts to be the
primary severe weather mode with some potential for large hail with
the current lapse rates. BL winds remain fairly light through the
period, so slower moving storms are likely...leading to locally
heavy rainfall.

NListemaa

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
The first part of the long term will be dominated by what is now the
remnants of Tropical Depression Fred currently located over Cuba. As
Fred emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico the NHC has indicated that
it will likely regain it's status as a tropical storm before making
landfall in the gulf. The effects of Fred will likely be seen late
Monday and into Tuesday along the Georgia/Alabama border. The main
concern will be heavy rain, especially after Fred is absorbed into a
stalled frontal boundary across north Georgia Tuesday and Wednesday.

The stalled from finally gets pushed out by Friday but from there
the forecast will be dependent on Tropical Storm Grace which is
following a similar path to Fred. The models are in major
disagreement on what track Grace will eventually take. The GFS and
Canadian models both bring Grace into the Gulf where it undergoes
further strengthening. the ECMWF however keeps the storm off the
coast of the Atlantic which allows for a sinking front to bring
another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area next weekend.

Temperatures during this time period will likely run below normal
given the rain we are expecting. Highs will likely be moderated to
the low 80s and upper 70s and overnight lows in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Flooding will be possible this week, but given ongoing
uncertainty in the track of both tropical systems, nailing down the
areas of highest QPF has been difficult.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z Update... Convection should last into the early
evening. Some sct MVFR is possible towards 12Z SUN. Winds will be
a challenge, do think convection will still be lingering between
22Z-02Z and wind direction will likely be VRB at this time.
However, winds should go back over to the east side and stay
overnight. More widespread coverage of precip is expected
tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low-Med confidence on wind direction between 22Z-02z. Otherwise,
Med-Hi confidence remaining elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  72  85  71 /  40  40  60  50
Atlanta         93  72  86  71 /  40  40  60  50
Blairsville     88  66  80  66 /  40  40  60  60
Cartersville    93  71  87  70 /  40  40  60  50
Columbus        93  73  87  72 /  30  30  50  40
Gainesville     93  71  84  70 /  40  40  60  60
Macon           95  72  88  72 /  40  30  50  30
Rome            94  72  86  71 /  40  40  60  60
Peachtree City  94  71  87  70 /  30  30  60  40
Vidalia         94  73  87  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1035 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151445-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1035 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
across north and central Georgia. A few storms may become strong
to severe, capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts,
frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day
Sunday through Friday, with the highest chances during the
afternoons and evenings. The primary hazards with any thunderstorm
will be heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning. Although
widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, an
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out each day, with damaging
winds as the main threat.

Although much uncertainty still remains, it is likely that a
tropical low will impact the Southeast, including portions of
central and north Georgia, early this week. Please continue to
monitor the forecast for further developments.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
220 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

GAZ039-051-141845-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-
220 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TALIAFERRO
AND SOUTHWESTERN WILKES COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

At 219 PM EDT...an area of strong thunderstorms was centered near
Ficklin, or 3 miles south of Washington...moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Washington, Sharon, Ficklin, Lundberg and Sandy Cross.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3358 8292 3371 8288 3379 8282 3375 8269
      3363 8270 3353 8279
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 139DEG 10KT 3367 8278

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
226 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

GAZ082-094-095-141900-
Peach GA-Bibb GA-Houston GA-
226 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL BIBB,
PEACH AND NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 225 PM EDT...an area of strong thunderstorms were centered over
Centerville, or 12 miles south of Macon. Other strong storms were
located in Peach County near Powerville. The storms are moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Perry, Fort Valley, Warner Robins, Centerville, Byron, Robins Air
Force Base, Powerville, Rutland, Elberta, Middle Georgia Regional
Airport, Miami Valley and Lakewood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3249 8388 3250 8392 3251 8392 3251 8397
      3254 8399 3256 8396 3255 8395 3257 8394
      3269 8376 3269 8372 3271 8375 3274 8370
      3276 8363 3267 8361 3264 8358 3247 8369
      3246 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 137DEG 9KT 3266 8371

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

GAZ038-039-050-051-141915-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Oglethorpe GA-Greene GA-
252 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GREENE,
NORTHWESTERN TALIAFERRO, WESTERN WILKES AND EASTERN OGLETHORPE
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 252 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Norman to near Lyneville...and moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Rayle, Jacksons Crossroads, Mallorysville, Newtown, Robinson, Norman,
Celeste, Lyneville, Philomath, Carters Grove and Daniel Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3380 8281 3358 8287 3358 8304 3386 8298
      3400 8289 3400 8287 3398 8286 3398 8285
      3399 8284 3397 8278 3397 8275 3399 8272
      3399 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 101DEG 6KT 3395 8277 3361 8289

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
253 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

GAZ072-073-141930-
Baldwin GA-Jones GA-
253 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN BALDWIN AND
NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 253 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Browns Crossing, or 8
miles east of Gray...moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Milledgeville, Ethridge, Haddock, James, Blountsville and Browns
Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3296 8332 3296 8348 3308 8352 3319 8343
      3318 8341 3311 8328
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 101DEG 6KT 3305 8339

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

GAZ080-141930-
Taylor GA-
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN TAYLOR
COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 255 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered near Butler. This
storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Butler, Charing, Howard, Wesley Church and Mauk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3242 8439 3247 8441 3248 8441 3249 8442
      3254 8445 3256 8445 3256 8441 3261 8441
      3264 8438 3267 8436 3261 8419 3247 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 152DEG 3KT 3253 8432

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
311 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

GAZ059-060-072-141945-
Putnam GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
311 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM,
NORTHEASTERN JONES AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM
EDT...

At 310 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Stanfordville, or 11
miles north of Gray. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Ethridge, Bradley, Hillsboro, Resseaus Crossroads, Round Oak,
Stanfordville and Blountsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3302 8352 3315 8368 3325 8361 3328 8345
      3318 8342 3317 8343 3312 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 145DEG 4KT 3318 8352

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH